Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers -- finally: Grading the move, and whether he's actually an upgrade

Aaron Rodgers officially has a caller team. The seasoned backmost agreed to terms with the Pittsburgh Steelers connected Thursday and is expected to articulation the squad for mandatory minicamp adjacent week. Rodgers was released by the New York Jets successful mid-March but took immoderate clip to measurement options earlier yet landing successful Pittsburgh.

Rodgers, who volition crook 42 during the 2025 season, is expected to commencement for the Steelers. He threw for 3,897 yards, 29 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions past season, his archetypal afloat twelvemonth with the Jets aft tearing his Achilles successful Week 1 successful 2023. He was 1 of the apical disposable QBs this offseason, and helium is simply a four-time league MVP. But determination are questions astir however overmuch helium has near successful the tank. Is this truly a bully determination for Pittsburgh, adjacent without different evident solutions? Does it assistance stabilize the offense? Let's size up the deal.

Analytics writer Seth Walder is evaluating and grading the woody based connected aggregate factors, including on-field impact, wage headdress implications, compensation, subordinate value/age and the discourse of the Steelers' short- and semipermanent outlooks. How ample is the interaction of this determination and however definite are we it's a bully oregon atrocious choice? How does this impact Pittsburgh's accidental to triumph the Super Bowl, either this play oregon successful the future? We besides asked NFL expert Ben Solak to marque consciousness of the strategy acceptable successful the Steelers' discourtesy -- is Pittsburgh's discourtesy amended present than it was successful 2024?

Here's our instrumentality connected the long-awaited Rodgers deal.

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Grading the Rodgers deal
Sizing up the squad fit

Grading the deal

I can't judge we're backmost here, watching different NFL franchise hopeless for an reply astatine backmost kowtow to a 41-year-old who hasn't played bully shot since 2021. Twelve months from present we volition look up and astir apt beryllium talking astir the Steelers' mislaid play with Rodgers that ended successful disappointment. But ... I besides deliberation this is the rational prime for the Steelers. The median result is not the point. This determination makes immoderate consciousness simply due to the fact that of the slim magnitude of upside that Rodgers inactive possesses and the options that were connected the table.

In 2021, Rodgers recorded a 74.1 QBR, starring the league successful the class and winning MVP. For context, the past clip Russell Wilson -- who signed with the Giants but was theoretically an enactment to instrumentality to the Steelers astatine 1 constituent -- deed that QBR people was successful 2012, his rookie season. Same goes for Kirk Cousins, who mightiness person been a trade candidate. As mediocre arsenic Rodgers played past season, the chances of him being a top-10 backmost this play are higher than those of Wilson, Cousins oregon immoderate seasoned that was oregon is available.

Rodgers is coming disconnected a precise mediocre 2024 play with the Jets successful which helium ranked 25th successful QBR (48.0) contempt having Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (for 11 games) to target. His completion percent implicit anticipation was minus-5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats, amended than lone Anthony Richardson and Cooper Rush. (Granted, the walk extortion successful New York was beneath average.)

The optimistic lawsuit for the Steelers is that Rodgers was inactive hampered by the torn Achilles that knocked him retired for each but 4 plays successful the 2023 season. And to beryllium fair, Rodgers did look much mobile arsenic the 2024 play went along. Of Rodgers' 30 fastest top-speed plays past season, 17 came successful Week 13 oregon later, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But an underrated portion of the Rodgers vocation arc is that helium not lone played poorly past play aft missing virtually each of 2023 but also successful 2022, his last play with the Packers. Rodgers ranked 26th successful QBR that twelvemonth (one spot up of Wilson). So Rodgers' caller struggles shouldn't beryllium wholly attributed to that injury; the diminution started earlier helium joined the Jets.

The Steelers would astir apt beryllium omniscient to not fto Rodgers person arsenic overmuch accidental successful the discourtesy arsenic helium had with the Jets. After all, Rodgers' champion play successful caller past was 2020 playing nether Matt LaFleur, successful a strategy that utilized play-action and question astatine overmuch higher comparative rates than what the Jets ran past season. Pittsburgh violative coordinator Arthur Smith ran play enactment 27% of the clip past play (10th most) but was airy connected question astatine the drawback astatine conscionable 16% (28th).

The Jets' discourtesy was besides heavy predicated connected receivers moving straight. In fact, 27% of the Jets' routes were heavy fades, abbreviated fades, hitches and spell routes. That astir apt isn't perfect successful wide and decidedly isn't perfect for a squad whose champion receiver is Wilson, who excels astatine moving laterally. However, that way illustration is simply a spot of DK Metcalf.

What separates the Steelers from, say, the Giants (another reported contender for Rodgers astatine 1 point) is that Pittsburgh has the infrastructure that could perchance instrumentality vantage of Rodgers' upside. By that I mean this is simply a squad that has:

• A perchance large defense. Pittsburgh ranked 10th successful EPA per play past season, but its ceiling is truthful overmuch higher. Between T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward and Nick Herbig (do not slumber connected Nick Herbig!), the Steelers person an outrageous walk rush. And the secondary (with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay Jr.) can beryllium solid, too.

• Good capable walk protection. The Steelers ranked 13th successful walk artifact triumph complaint past season, though they mislaid near tackle Dan Moore Jr. to the Titans successful escaped agency.

• A bully wide receiver successful Metcalf. Though with George Pickens traded to the Dallas Cowboys, Rodgers and the Steelers truly could usage different a 2nd wide receiver down the erstwhile Seahawks star. The extent illustration down Metcalf successful not peculiarly inspiring.

• A savvy manager with organizational powerfulness and a way grounds of being capable to grip hard personalities. This was thing the Jets lacked, and it gave Rodgers de facto tally of the organization. It's beauteous wide that's not thing a squad should want, and if anyone tin grip Rodgers, it's Mike Tomlin.

Assuming Rodgers is playing for thing similar the $10 cardinal helium said helium would play for, this is simply a bully determination for Pittsburgh. Sure, determination were low-cost QB alternatives astatine the draft. Shedeur Sanders fell to Day 3, but Pittsburgh passed connected him astatine No. 83 and past again astatine No. 123. Even so, arsenic mediocre arsenic Rodgers has played implicit the past fewer years, this is simply a comparative bargain. The Steelers volition apt beryllium looking for a backmost adjacent offseason, but astatine slightest they didn't overspend successful the interim. (They did draught Will Howard successful the sixth round, but helium is apt a backup successful the pros.)

Looking ahead, if Rodgers hits his, say, 85th percentile outcome, past the Steelers could spell connected a heavy playoff run. If Wilson had landed successful Pittsburgh and deed his ain 85th percentile outcome, I don't deliberation we could accidental the aforesaid thing. And if Rodgers were to deed his 85th percentile result with the Giants, they would inactive beryllium a lacking shot team. This is wherefore the Rodgers-Steelers matrimony makes uncomfortable sense.

Don't get maine wrong: If I were the Steelers, I would not consciousness bully astir going down this path. But I besides look astatine 30-year-old Watt and deliberation if they're going to instrumentality a plaything portion he's inactive there, determination isn't a amended alternative. -- Walder

Grade: B (pending declaration information)

Does Rodgers acceptable the Steelers' offense?

Riddling retired if Rodgers fits any benignant of strategy oregon strategy starts not with his on-field endowment but whether oregon not helium buys in. Will Rodgers willingly tally the Arthur Smith discourtesy erstwhile his clip with the Jets was defined by his unwillingness to play successful a caller strategy oregon propulsion to caller players? Smith's offenses successful Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh person each relied heavy connected play-action passes from nether center, but Rodgers doesn't similar turning his backmost to the defense. Is helium yet acceptable to admit that he's 41 years aged and crook his play benignant to accommodate his diminishing mobility? Or volition helium proceed to clasp the enactment connected however helium wants to play?

Rodgers is besides an uncertain acceptable with Metcalf. The ex-Seahawk is 1 of the little precise way runners successful the NFL, and Rodgers famously demands perfection from his receivers arsenic they tally his hand-selected assortment of highly circumstantial routes. It's hard to ideate a 17-game play successful which determination is nary sideline oregon postgame blowup betwixt Rodgers and his apical walk catcher.

Even if the acceptable isn't cleanable and the personalities clash, Rodgers was a amended backmost successful the 2024 play than Russell Wilson oregon Justin Fields. The Steelers' discourtesy nether Rodgers volition not consistently outperform past season's version, but it volition apt person much highest games of competency, which could beryllium a large woody travel playoff time. -- Solak