Breaking down 20 years of election data that shows how the two parties have evolved in the Trump era

President Donald Trump’s 2nd predetermination triumph was antithetic from his archetypal successful 1 big, important way: He won the fashionable vote, conscionable the 2nd clip successful the past 2 decades that Republicans had done so.

And successful the clip betwixt those 2 victories, from 2004 to 2024, determination person been melodramatic shifts successful the nation’s authorities on geographic, racial, acquisition and economical lines. Trump is operating successful a precise antithetic Republican Party than George W. Bush was 20 years earlier. A look astatine wherever the ballot has shifted astir successful that clip tells an eye-catching story.

Over the past 20 years, the counties wherever Republicans person improved their statesmanlike ballot stock by the largest margins are predominately centered successful Appalachia and the surrounding areas. The 100 counties that saw the largest shifts include: 11 of West Virginia’s 55 counties, 27 of Tennessee’s 95 counties, 18 of Arkansas’ 75 counties and 17 of Kentucky’s 120 counties.

These counties, connected the whole, are overmuch much heavy achromatic than average, according to census data, with achromatic residents making up astatine slightest 90% of the full colonisation successful astir two-thirds of these counties. All but 12 of those counties are astatine slightest 75% white. The unemployment complaint crossed these counties is astir doubly the nationalist average. Residents are much apt to beryllium reliant connected nutrient stamps and little apt to person moved successful the past year. Residents of these counties, connected average, besides are importantly little apt to person a bachelor’s grade oregon higher.

While the nationalist mean successful the American Community Survey’s astir caller five-year estimation is that 35% of Americans person a bachelor’s grade oregon higher, the mean successful these counties is conscionable 14%.

In short, the shifts amusement however Trump has brought much achromatic working-class voters into the GOP, causing spectacular changes successful immoderate localities.

Elliott County, Kentucky, with astir 7,300 people, shifted the astir implicit this clip period. While Democrat John Kerry carried the region implicit Bush 70%-29%, the region shifted importantly to the close by Democrat Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election, erstwhile Obama narrowly outran Republican Mitt Romney 49%-47%. The region continued to displacement with Trump connected the ballot, yet with Trump winning a higher ballot stock successful 2024 (80%) than Kerry did successful 2004.

It’s a akin communicative successful galore of these different counties — peculiarly those successful states similar West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee, wherever agrarian voters that erstwhile voted Democratic person been leaving the party, particularly astatine the statesmanlike level.

In the Trump era, heavy Hispanic counties shifted right

A antithetic look — astatine the counties with the largest pro-Republican shifts betwixt Trump’s 3 elections, from 2016 to 2024 — shows immoderate large differences successful the types of places that person moved to the close specifically wrong the Trump era.

On average, the 100 counties that shifted astir toward Republicans successful the Trump epoch are importantly much Hispanic than the nationalist average. These counties are besides wealthier and much educated compared to the counties that moved astir from 2004 to 2024, though they are inactive beneath the nationalist average.

While the biggest Republican-shifting counties from 2004 to 2024 are mostly concentrated astir Appalachia, the counties that shifted the astir to the close successful the Trump epoch are much dispersed retired and predominantly successful the South and West.

Twenty-nine Texas counties amusement up successful the database of 100 counties that saw the top summation successful GOP statesmanlike ballot borderline betwixt 2016 and 2024, and 12 of those are among the 20 that saw the biggest shifts. All of these Texas counties are majority-Hispanic, and immoderate are much than 90% Hispanic, emblematic of Trump’s melodramatic improvement among Hispanic voters successful 2024 arsenic good arsenic his occurrence successful heavy Hispanic areas along the borderline successful 2020.

Another heavy Hispanic county, Miami-Dade County, saw the 15th-largest displacement successful borderline toward Republicans betwixt 2016 and 2024 retired of much than 3,000 counties nationwide. Other large colonisation centers successful New York City — including the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens — are successful the apical 100 too. And the 14 counties successful Utah are emblematic of different trend: Many Republicans initially skeptical of Trump successful 2016 (including Mormons, who marque up a important portion of the electorate successful Utah) mostly fell successful enactment 8 years later.

Where Democrats person made their biggest gains

Democrats person seen their ain shifts — the flip broadside of those GOP gains successful a state that has remained tightly divided adjacent arsenic the 2 enactment coalitions person shifted importantly from 20 years ago.

While the counties that saw the largest GOP gains implicit the past 2 decades were predominantly agrarian and small, the counties wherever Democrats improved the astir are overmuch larger, chiefly successful suburban and municipality areas. The 100 counties wherever the GOP statesmanlike ballot borderline grew astir implicit the past 2 decades formed conscionable 782,000 votes successful 2024. The 100 counties that saw the astir betterment successful the Democratic statesmanlike ballot borderline formed astir 20 cardinal votes each unneurotic successful 2024.

Those Democratic-trending counties see cardinal constituencies that person go much important to the party’s conjugation successful caller years. On average, they are much heavy Black, much wealthy, much educated and much urban, an unsurprising premix of voters mobilized successful the Obama epoch and those who person fled the Republican Party successful the Trump era. They’re besides broadly much apt to person much newer residents — according to census data, those Democratic-trending counties person higher-than-average shares of residents who person precocious moved to the county.

Many of those large trends intersect successful exurban and suburban Georgia, peculiarly successful the Atlanta metro area. Seven Georgia counties are among the apical 8 that saw the astir question toward Democrats the 2 decades since 2004: Rockdale, Henry, Douglas, Gwinnett, Newton, Cobb and Fayette counties. All but Newton are successful metro Atlanta, each are astatine slightest one-quarter Black, and astir person higher incomes and acquisition rates than the nationalist average.

Extremely affluent and highly educated areas successful bluish Virginia, arsenic good arsenic counties similar Teton County, Wyoming — location to the ritzy Jackson Hole skis resorts arsenic good arsenic large nationalist parks — and Los Alamos County, New Mexico — location to the Department of Energy laboratory that helped make the atomic weaponry — are besides among the counties that swung astir toward Democrats implicit this period. Los Alamos County is peculiarly symbolic: It has the highest stock of Ph.D.s among residents of immoderate region successful the country.

Two much notable counties included successful this database are Sarpy and Douglas counties successful Nebraska, which marque up the immense bulk of the state’s 2nd Congressional District — the “blue dot” that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried successful the past 2 statesmanlike elections, securing 1 electoral ballot adjacent arsenic Trump carried the state.

Democrats person gained successful wealthier, whiter and much educated counties successful the Trump era

The counties that shifted astir toward Democrats betwixt 2016 and 2024, the Trump era, are importantly whiter and somewhat older than those that moved astir implicit the past 2 decades. Twenty are successful Colorado and 9 are successful Utah, but determination are a fistful of important counties successful the Midwest too.

The 2 counties that saw the biggest Democratic shifts successful the past 8 years are some successful Utah: Utah and Davis counties, astir Provo and Salt Lake City, respectively. There’s an important caveat here: In 2016, autarkic campaigner Evan McMullin won 21% of the vote, deflating some parties’ ballot shares.

Looking astatine much competitory states, astir one-third of Colorado’s counties were among the 100 with the largest Democratic shifts successful the Trump era, arsenic were 11 successful Georgia.

Grand Traverse County, Michigan, and Ozaukee County, Wisconsin, person besides seen much caller shifts, emblematic of however immoderate educated, suburban Republican strongholds person been moving toward Democrats with Trump connected the ballot. But those gains person been much moderate, an summation of 7 percent points successful the Democratic borderline betwixt 2016 and 2024 successful Ozaukee, and 8 percent points successful Grand Traverse.