CEASEFIRE: Can a pause in fighting lead to lasting peace where conflicts have become the norm?

President Donald Trump brokered an historical ceasefire statement betwixt Israel and Iran connected Monday, marking a melodramatic intermission successful the astir important subject confrontation betwixt the 2 foes.

The Monday evening announcement took effect 12 hours later, pursuing a timeline designed to let last subject maneuvers connected some sides. However, a barrage of Iranian missile occurrence successful the hours that followed near galore Israelis questioning whether the truce had already been violated.

In an interrogation with Fox News Digital, John Spencer, enforcement manager of the Urban Warfare Institute, said specified delayed implementation is not unusual. "It’s hard to crook things disconnected connected a switch. You person craft successful flight. You person forces successful position," helium explained.

TRUMP BROKERS IRAN CEASEFIRE AS EXPERTS SAY REGIME’S ARSENAL IS SHATTERED BUT THREAT REMAINS

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters connected the Israel-Iran ceasefire earlier boarding Marine One connected the South Lawn of the White House connected Tuesday, June 24, 2025 successful Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Spencer described the U.S. cognition arsenic historic.

"What’s historical is that the U.S. carried retired a constricted cognition connected atomic targets with zero losses—no pilot, nary equipment—and helped Israel successful a mode lone America could. Nuclear proliferation is nonpartisan, and this was an apolitical win." Even aft Iran struck a U.S. basal successful Qatar, helium added, "the President showed immense restraint and kept absorption connected the broader goal: preventing Iran from getting a atomic limb and continuing its panic campaign."

Despite the unit that followed the announcement — including an Iranian onslaught that killed 4 civilians successful Israel — Spencer believes the ceasefire volition hold. "Both countries person present said we’re perfectly going to bash it," helium said. "And yes, President Trump is precise atypical successful the mode helium communicates with the ceasefire… with the ‘don’t driblet a azygous bomb.’"

To recognize however ceasefires similar this unfold, Spencer pointed to 5 humanities precedents marked by delayed activation, phased goals, and a last model for subject positioning.

An Israeli combatant pitchy takes disconnected to motorboat airstrikes against the Houthis successful Yemen.  (IDF)

Korean War Armistice (1953)

Signed connected July 27, 1953, the armistice that ended the Korean War was structured with a deliberate 12-hour hold earlier taking effect. "This allowed last subject movements earlier a synchronized halt," Spencer said — a exemplary the Israel-Iran ceasefire intimately echoes.

A circuit radical visits the Korean War Memorial connected Veterans Day successful Washington, D.C.

Yom Kippur War Ceasefire (1973)

Then-Israeli Defense Minister, General Moshe Dajan, left, with then-Major General Ariel Sharon basal connected the Egyptian broadside of the Suez Canal during the 4th Israeli-Arab War connected Oct. 18, 1973. (Photo by UPI/picture confederation via Getty Images)

Spencer noted that successful 1973, Israel utilized the last hours earlier a U.N.-brokered ceasefire to reposition forces. "Israel made a clump of moves successful those past hours… to see encircling the Third Army, moving connected Suez City," helium said, referencing his lawsuit survey connected the Battle of Suez City.

TRUMP ANNOUNCES HISTORIC IRAN AND ISRAEL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT TO END '12 DAY WAR'

Dayton Accords (1995)

A Bosnian pistillate walks among gravestones astatine Memorial Center Potocari adjacent Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina connected March 20, 2016. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)

Ending the Bosnian War, the U.S.-brokered Dayton Peace Accords established a phased timeline for unit withdrawals and governmental agreements. "That was a U.N., aggregate countries signing into an statement of what some sides would and wouldn’t do," Spencer explained, contrasting it with the looser presumption of the existent Israel-Iran ceasefire.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefires (2014)

Smoke rises implicit buildings successful the north-east of Gaza City aft a rocket fired from Gaza landed abbreviated of its people connected Aug. 21, 2014. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Image)

Spencer besides drew parallels to the 2014 warfare successful Gaza. "Hamas would say, ‘Okay, we privation a ceasefire… conscionable until the adjacent clip they interruption the ceasefire,’" helium said. Many of those agreements had 12- to 72-hour activation delays, akin to what is present seen with Iran.

Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Proposals

Servicemen of Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade occurrence a French MO-120-RT dense mortar astatine the Russian forces connected the beforehand enactment adjacent the metropolis of Bakhmut successful Ukraine's Donetsk portion connected Wednesday, May 22, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova via AP)

Even much recently, during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, ceasefires were often little and symbolic. "Putin said, ‘I privation 3 days truthful I tin bash my parade,’" Spencer remarked, highlighting however impermanent pauses tin service some strategical and governmental needs.

While past ceasefires were designed to dilatory escalation, Spencer sees this 1 arsenic portion of a broader strategical doctrine. "To assistance Israel successful a mode lone United States could, that should beryllium nonpartisan," helium said. "For the United States to bash a precise constricted operation, without a azygous nonaccomplishment of American life… that’s unique."

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Rescuers enactment astatine the country of an detonation aft an Israeli onslaught successful Tehran, Iran, connected Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)

Spencer described the ceasefire arsenic "an off-ramp" for some sides. "Ceasefire present means that some sides volition halt shooting astatine each other. It doesn’t mean that Iran volition halt chanting ‘Death to America and decease to Israel,’" helium said. "But the operations and hostilities person stopped."

Despite the deficiency of ceremonial presumption oregon planetary enforcement, Spencer believes the statement created a caller precedent. "This established a caller doctrine," helium said, citing Israel’s quality to predominate Iranian skies and the U.S. effect to atomic proliferation threats. "If Iran decides to rebuild immoderate sites somewhere, the threats volition beryllium much contiguous than ever."

Spencer concluded, "It is simply a win. When reddish lines are truly reddish lines, they are effectual astatine deterrence."