Could the US be targeted as Iran retaliates against Israel?

Iran has initiated a forceful counterattack connected Tel Aviv, conscionable arsenic the particulate had begun to settee connected Israel’s archetypal circular of strikes connected Tehran, an cognition to hitch retired the Iranian regime's nuclear capabilities. 

Tel Aviv residents were instructed to stay successful weaponry shelters Friday evening until further announcement arsenic the Israeli Defense Forces intercepted an onslaught of rocket attacks from Tehran. 

The U.S. is near to wonderment whether it volition beryllium drawn into the conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio astatine archetypal insisted the American authorities was not progressive successful the strikes, but President Donald Trump’s comments Friday suggest helium didn’t reason them. 

Iran claimed that Israel’s "aggression against Iran could not person been carried retired without the coordination and support of the United States."

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Israel struck 100 sites astir Tehran connected Friday. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

If Iran is acting rationally, it has nary crushed to provoke America into joining violative attacks connected behalf of its state Israel.

But what if it isn’t?  

"I anticipation and commune the Iranians don't deed Americans but …  it's going to beryllium precise hard for the authorities to not deed backmost and not deed backmost big," 1 erstwhile Pentagon authoritative said. "All indications are they consciousness similar they're going to person to deed backmost hard."

Another expert echoed that constituent but emphasized the affectional toll connected Iran's leadership. 

"You're talking astir quality beings who conscionable watched their state get attacked, and a batch of their close advisors, confidants, astir apt friends get killed, right?" said Rosemary Kelanic, manager of the Middle East Program astatine Defense Priorities. "That's a pugnacious happening for Iran to really muster to do, but that's intelligibly the close determination for them strategically."

Iran's ultimate person Ali Khamenei vowed to bring Israel "to its knees" arsenic his federation accused the U.S. of helping with Israel's attack.  (Khamenei: West Asia News Agency, ReutersTrump: Photo by Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Iranians haven’t been acrophobic to onslaught the U.S. before: they tried to termination Trump and his erstwhile advisors Mike Pompeo and John Bolton implicit the Qassem Soleimani assassination for years. 

Iran’s quality to onslaught U.S. targets successful the portion is nary secret: It has missiles and drones susceptible of reaching American bases successful Iraq, Syria and the Gulf. And, arsenic Gregg Roman, enforcement manager of the Middle East Forum, noted, it has already demonstrated a willingness to usage them.

"Iran has the quality to usage its rocket programme and its drones to onslaught astatine the United States and its bases successful the portion and successful Israel," Roman said. "It has threatened to bash so."

But a bigger interest is sleeper cells – Iran’s quality to run done proxies adjacent wrong the U.S. 

"That’s what I’m astir disquieted about," said Roman. 

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Iran claimed Israel’s "aggression against Iran could not person been carried retired without the coordination and support of the United States." (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

"Iran has demonstrated… that it has the capableness to found infrastructure present successful the United States," said Joe Truzman, senior probe expert with FDD’s Long War Journal. "Whether that’s done agents they hire, a proxy unit similar Hezbollah, oregon sleeper agents… it’s decidedly a possibility."

A erstwhile Pentagon authoritative pointed to Iran’s massive rocket arsenal – including much cruise and ballistic missiles than the U.S. has interceptors globally.

"If Iran truly decides to propulsion successful its rocket force, … they could truly bash a batch of damage," 1 erstwhile authoritative said. "Particularly successful Iraq and Syria, wherever a batch of our smaller bases are not good defended … not covered by Patriots oregon THAADs."

Iran has a chokehold connected Iraq’s Shiite subject forces: They are the regime’s strongest proxy astatine the moment. The U.S. has astir 2,000 forces stationed successful Iraq to combat coercion and this week evacuated non-essential embassy unit and their families from the embassy there.

"Iran whitethorn take to nonstop its proxy forces successful Iraq oregon Yemen to statesman expanding unit connected the U.S. by attacking American targets," said Truzman, "to physique up capable unit to compel the U.S. to halt carrying retired attacks." 

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For now, Iran appears to beryllium aiming its retaliation chiefly astatine Israel – not the U.S. "Right now, astir of Iran's convulsive rhetoric and their attraction is connected attacking Israeli targets," said Truzman. "At this point, I don't deliberation Iran wants to provoke the U.S."

Still, the concern remains fluid. "A batch depends connected however Iran perceives the United States’ engagement successful this struggle close now," helium added. "The longer this struggle drags on, it’s precise apt the U.S. subject volition get much involved."

Beni Sabti, Iran adept astatine the Institute for National Security Studies, said that close now, "it’s convenient for Israel, Iran and for the U.S. for Iran to permission the U.S. alone." 

Kelanic warned that Israel whitethorn person made a sedate miscalculation. "I deliberation this is simply a immense strategical mistake by Israel," she said. "I'm disquieted they're going to resistance the United States into this elephantine mess."

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The U.S. is each but guaranteed to get progressive astatine slightest successful a antiaircraft posture to assistance Israel repel Iran’s countermoves, and Ayatollah Alli Khamenei has vowed to bring Israel "to its knees." The U.S. coordinated intimately with Israel to fend disconnected Iran’s past 2 counterattacks successful April and October past year. 

"The Zionist authorities volition not flight unscathed from this crime," Khamenei threatened successful a televised code connected Friday.