Fantasy baseball: Crow-Armstrong slumps hard? Boston's DH bests Stanton? Don't be surprised

Each week successful MLB is its ain communicative -- afloat of surprises, some affirmative and antagonistic -- and phantasy managers indispensable determine what to judge and what not to judge moving forward. Perhaps we tin help. If immoderate of these thoughts travel true... don't beryllium surprised!

Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong has go 1 of fantasy baseball's apical players and, according to ESPN BET, a morganatic NL MVP candidate. He entered Wednesday with 19 location runs and 23 stolen bases -- a operation nary different subordinate tin match. He's connected gait for lone the seventh 40/40 play successful past and the archetypal ever by a Cub. Put simply, erstwhile including elite defense, we whitethorn beryllium watching 1 of the top roto phantasy seasons for a superior halfway fielder.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Crow-Armstrong falls abbreviated of top-20 presumption successful ESPN points leagues

Perhaps this bold, risky connection isn't bold oregon risky enough, but it surely addresses a large quality betwixt roto/categories leagues and points-league scoring. Despite contributing 7 location runs and 10 stolen bases implicit the past 30 days, Crow-Armstrong is not among the top-30 hitters successful points leagues implicit that span. Frankly, the regression galore expected has been happening for weeks, conscionable not successful the high-identity markers of location runs and steals. Crow-Armstrong isn't reaching basal enough. One tin specify "enough" successful galore ways, but a .307 OBP definite doesn't consciousness similar enough.

Crow-Armstrong whitethorn scope 40 location runs and 40 stolen bases this play and extremity up being little invaluable than astatine slightest 20 different hitters due to the fact that helium neither produces a precocious batting mean nor draws galore walks. In roto/categories formats, helium is simply a top-10 enactment and arguably the league MVP erstwhile considering the discourse of draught day/auction attention. Crow-Armstrong, who deed .237 with a .670 OPS during his rookie play (albeit with 27 steals), however, was simply a mid-round prime successful galore ESPN points-league drafts successful March.

Points-league investors indispensable measure Crow-Armstrong otherwise than those successful roto formats, and acold much harshly. We saw this past play with Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz. He delivered 25 location runs with a league-leading 67 stolen bases and finished 26th successful points scoring, down Willy Adames, Josh Naylor and Brent Rooker. This season, De La Cruz is pacing likewise to Crow-Armstrong, with 16 location runs and 21 steals, and is lone a fewer points down him successful full-season points scoring. Philadelphia Phillies SS Trea Turner is different illustration of a roto prima often misjudged for points scoring. Turner finished 49th among points-league hitters past season.

The six rather notable (and surely controversial, successful a fewer cases) members of the 40/40 nine (Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Ronald Acuna Jr. successful 2023 and Shohei Ohtani past season) each walked astatine slightest 6% of the clip successful those seasons. The lowest batting mean and OBP among the clump was Soriano astatine .277/.351 for the 2006 Nationals. Crow-Armstrong is hitting .270 with a .307 OBP and a 4.6% locomotion rate. However, helium is hitting lone .250 with a .287 OBP implicit the past 30 days. Pitchers person adjusted to Crow-Armstrong. He has conscionable 5 walks successful that span, and much extra-base hits than singles.

There person been 72 seasons successful which a subordinate reached 30 location runs and 30 stolen bases successful the aforesaid season, and plentifulness of options did not scope basal astatine a precocious rate. The lowest OBP for specified a play is Joe Carter, successful 1987 for Cleveland, astatine .304. Soriano, erstwhile helium went 39/41 for the 2002 Rangers, walked lone 23 times, though helium deed .300. Atlanta's Ron Gant deed .251 portion going 32/34 for the 1991 Braves, the lowest batting mean of the club. What Crow-Armstrong is doing, successful galore ways, is historical and unprecedented.

How tin 2 scoring formats measure an outstanding subordinate truthful differently? Even arsenic pitchers set to Crow-Armstrong, helium tin proceed absorption connected hitting for powerfulness and stealing bases. While the Cubs and phantasy managers conifer for a higher locomotion complaint and amended (reasonable) results versus left-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong ranks good for Barrels and exit velocity. He is among the leaders successful alert shot percentage, with the fourth-lowest complaint of crushed balls. Nobody questions his speed, of course. Perhaps cipher is questioning anything. Perhaps they should.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Boston's (pending) DH outscores rival New York's (current) DH this season

The Boston Red Sox, caller disconnected their stunning Rafael Devers trade, expect DH Masataka Yoshida (shoulder) to marque his 2025 debut soon. The Devers commercialized clears playing time. The New York Yankees welcomed backmost DH Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) for his debut this week. The muscular Stanton deed 27 location runs implicit 114 games and 459 PA past season, immoderate of them among the hardest-hit moonshots successful the sport, and helium has much than 400 location runs successful his storied career. Fantasy managers cognize him and often trust connected him.

Yet, Yoshida (in 108 games and 421 PA and with lone 10 location runs successful his 2nd MLB play since arriving from Japan) outscored Stanton successful points formats successful some the 2023 and 2024 seasons. It is true, and it tin hap again.

Let's beryllium wide that neither Yoshida nor Stanton should beryllium coveted by phantasy managers successful ESPN's modular game, particularly with wellness and playing clip hardly assured. Still, Yoshida averaged 2.2 ESPN phantasy points per crippled past season, besting Stanton's 1.9 mark. Yoshida's mean was among top-50 presumption and the aforesaid arsenic what New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso, Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson and Pittsburgh Pirates OF Bryan Reynolds produced.

This is imaginable due to the fact that Yoshida has been a .285 hitter implicit 2 MLB seasons and 1,001 PA, with humble powerfulness and an 86% interaction rate. While Yoshida seldom strikes retired (12.4% successful 2024), Stanton is rather the other (31.2% successful 2024). Home runs substance successful immoderate phantasy format, but truthful bash walks and strikeouts.

Yoshida deed .347 arsenic Boston's No. 3 hitter past play -- a relation helium whitethorn soon get again -- and helium deed .299 wide successful the 2nd half. Stanton deed .233 past season, and .191 the twelvemonth prior. Both Boston and New York seemingly person much worthy players than progressive lineup spots, and these 30-something DH options indispensable execute good to warrant playing time.

As of Wednesday morning, Stanton was rostered successful 16.1% of ESPN modular leagues, among the most-added players, and inactive rising. Yoshida is rostered successful 1.9% of leagues. Perception is truthful often other of reality.

Don't beryllium surprised... if San Diego Padres RHP Dylan Cease is simply a top-20 phantasy starter yet again

Cease enters this weekend's scheduled commencement against the Kansas City Royals with an unsightly 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He permitted six earned runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers successful his astir caller outing. He has won conscionable 2 of his 15 starts this season. Sure, Cease is among the leaders successful strikeouts, but astatine what outgo to phantasy managers? Cease is not among the top-50 points-league pitching scorers this season.

Last season, Cease was the No. 6 starting pitcher successful ESPN phantasy points. He won 14 games with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking much than 200 hitters for the 4th consecutive season. Oh, and Cease had a 4.24 ERA connected the greeting of July 7, 2024. From that constituent on, helium produced a 2.58 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP implicit 15 starts (winning seven) with 94 strikeouts.

We cannot presume that conscionable due to the fact that Cease was awesome implicit the last 3 months of past play that helium volition duplicate those fantabulous numbers, but past again, ever stake connected talent. Cease is among the strikeout leaders, posting his highest people since 2021. Entering Wednesday, his 2.94 FIP ranks 13th among qualified starting pitchers and his 3.47 expected ERA is 19th. Only 4 starting pitchers person a higher BABIP than Cease's .343 mark. Cease has been unlucky. Trade for him.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Braves OF Jurickson Profar is simply a top-20 outfielder starting successful July

Profar, 32, is finishing up an 80-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing cause policy, and galore phantasy managers whitethorn privation to debar investing. After all, Profar comes disconnected a stunning, vocation twelvemonth successful which helium deed .280 with 24 location runs, 85 RBIs, 10 steals and 94 runs for the Padres. Since the suspension, immoderate mightiness presume that's however helium had a vocation play astatine property 31.

Don't presume to cognize the full communicative oregon what this means for Profar moving forward. He has begun playing for Triple-A Gwinnett and notched a brace of hits and a locomotion successful his archetypal game. Profar is eligible to marque his Atlanta debut connected July 2. The Braves assertion that Profar, signed to a three-year contract, volition deed successful the No. 2 lineup spot -- aft Acuna and anterior to powerfulness bats Olson, DH Marcell Ozuna and 3B Austin Riley. A amazingly underachieving lineup abruptly becomes much formidable.

Perhaps we cannot expect oregon presume Profar to nutrient astatine rather the aforesaid level arsenic past season, but we besides should not disregard the anticipation for past season's No. 15 hitter for points scoring. Atlanta's pending No. 2 hitter is rostered successful 18.6% of ESPN modular leagues.