How Senate Democrats' campaign chair sees the 2026 map: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online mentation of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and investigation from the White House, Capitol Hill and the run trail.

In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman speaks with Kirsten Gillibrand, the seat of Senate Democrats’ run arm, astir however the representation is shaping up up of adjacent year’s midterm elections. Plus, Andrea Mitchell looks astatine Elon Musk’s lasting bequest successful Washington.

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— Adam Wollner

How Senate Democrats’ run seat sees the 2026 map

By Bridget Bowman

Democrats volition person to triumph immoderate reddish states if they person immoderate anticipation of taking power of the Senate adjacent year. And the legislator tasked with starring that effort believes President Donald Trump has fixed them an opening aft helium won those states easy months ago.

“I look astatine the map, and each state’s connected the array due to the fact that of this increasing backlash that President Trump’s decisions person created, with his cuts to Medicaid and his unwillingness to code affordability issues,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., told NBC News successful an interrogation astatine the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee office connected Wednesday.

Gillibrand besides said she isn’t ruling retired taking sides successful Democratic primaries arsenic her enactment looks to nett 4 Senate seats to instrumentality power of the chamber, saying she is “definitely not ruling retired thing successful immoderate state.”

“We’re going to look astatine each authorities connected a case-by-case ground and marque our appraisal arsenic to who’s the champion campaigner successful that state, and past marque decisions based connected that,” Gillibrand said.

Battleground targets: Democrats’ ripest targets successful 2026 are GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, which Trump mislaid by astir 7 percent points successful November, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points. Both incumbents are battle-tested, winning contested races successful their past cycles connected the ballot.

Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel has already launched a tally successful North Carolina, portion erstwhile House staffer Jordan Wood is moving successful Maine. But Democrats are inactive eyeing Maine Gov. Janet Mills and erstwhile North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper arsenic possible recruits.

Venturing into Trump country: Even if Democrats triumph those 2 states, and clasp onto their existent seats successful different battlegrounds, they would inactive request to flip 2 further Senate seats successful states Trump won by treble digits past twelvemonth to get to a majority. That could mean targeting ruby reddish states similar Texas, Iowa, Alaska, South Carolina and others.

Democrats bash not presently clasp a azygous Senate spot successful the 24 states that Trump carried successful each 3 of his statesmanlike runs, aft respective red-state losses successful 2024. And Trump won each of those states by treble digits past year.

Gillibrand said the “magic formula” for Democratic occurrence involves a operation of “deep Republican backlash” to Trump and immoderate of his policies, similar slashing societal information nett programs and imposing steep tariffs, and “extraordinarily beardown candidates who correspond their states well,” arsenic good arsenic boosts from the DSCC to assistance those candidates physique up their campaigns.

Read much from Bridget →

Elon Musk exits Washington, but not without leaving his mark

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

Much of the treatment astir Elon Musk’s departure from the White House has focused connected however the Department of Government Efficiency failed to scope its lofty spending-cuts extremity and the governmental fallout from the billionaire megadonor’s break from President Donald Trump implicit the “big, beauteous bill.”

But what has gone much overlooked is however Musk transformed the authorities successful profound ways successful a precise abbreviated play of time.

Musk has faced disapproval for leaving Washington without achieving his archetypal extremity of slashing the authorities spending by an eye-popping $2 trillion (or adjacent his scaled-back people of $1 trillion). That would person required him to chopped billions of dollars from defence and entitlements. Combined with mandatory payments of involvement connected the debt, those accounts are wherever the wealth is, to paraphrase Willie Sutton connected wherefore helium robbed banks. But Musk ne'er projected taking connected those ineffable cows.

DOGE says it has saved the authorities $180 billion. Independent groups specified arsenic the Partnership for Public Service cipher it really outgo the authorities $135 billion.

While failing to materially trim the deficit, Musk did win successful carrying retired an alternate ngo — eliminating each but a trickle of overseas assistance and slashing the home national workforce to acceptable a MAGA run mandate.

By the State Department’s ain acknowledgment, 80% of USAID grants were terminated. The World Food Program and CARE, some antecedently receiving U.S. grants, person reported terrible starvation, principally successful Sub-Saharan Africa. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified to Congress that the cancellation of aesculapian services — including antiretroviral HIV/AIDs vaccinations — person not resulted successful immoderate deaths. But United Nations agencies and eyewitness accounts by journalists — including Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times — person reported connected the deaths of galore children, perchance thousands, successful Sudan and different struggle zones.

There are different DOGE results that are apt irreversible, including the encephalon drain caused by the thousands of firings astatine National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In addition, determination is the silencing of the autarkic and highly regarded Voice of America, antecedently reaching much than 300 cardinal listeners a week.

Then there’s the shuttering of deliberation tanks similar the Wilson Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace; the firings of CIA officers who instrumentality years to enlistee and train; the scaling backmost of the Veterans Administration and Social Security Administration; and the prospective closure of U.S. embassies and consulates. And determination are the cuts to nationalist broadcasting and the Department of Education arsenic good arsenic the delicate idiosyncratic information DOGE employees were capable to access.

Yes, Mr. Musk has near Washington. But he’s surely near his mark.

That’s each From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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