NBA Finals first look: 7 things to know ahead of Thunder-Pacers

With a 125-108 triumph connected Saturday, the Indiana Pacers clinched a spot successful the 2025 NBA Finals, mounting up 1 of the astir astonishing title matchups successful league history.

In immoderate respects, the fourth-seeded Pacers and top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder couldn't beryllium further apart. Oklahoma City entered this play among the favorites for the rubric and dominated the Western Conference from commencement to finish, portion Indiana scuffled to a losing grounds until flipping the power successful January. The Thunder person the caller league MVP successful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, positive different All-NBA honoree and 2 All-Defensive selections; the Pacers' lone recipient of immoderate play honors is Tyrese Haliburton, who landed connected the All-NBA 3rd team.

Yet successful different respects, the finalists person a batch successful common, arsenic 2 young teams led by dynamic guards that play successful the mediate of the country. This is the archetypal Finals since the instauration of the luxury taxation successful which neither squad is simply a tax-payer. Both finalists play a fun, engaging benignant and are acceptable up for much postseason occurrence successful the seasons to come.

Before the Finals extremity disconnected connected Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET connected ABC), present are the stats, trends and head-to-head wrinkles to cognize astir this unexpected Thunder-Pacers showdown.

A uncommon conflict of All-NBA constituent guards

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Legler: OKC has been 'demoralizing' opponents successful tally to the Finals

Tim Legler joins Scott Van Pelt to interruption down the Thunder clinching their spot successful the 2025 NBA Finals.

Although it's improbable the 2 players volition really walk overmuch clip guarding each different -- much connected that beneath -- the constituent defender matchup volition beryllium good worthy watching successful this series. Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton are the archetypal brace of All-NBA picks astatine constituent defender to conscionable successful the Finals since Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving a decennary ago. Sadly, that matchup was short-lived: Irving suffered a patella fracture successful Game 1 of the series, though we got to spot the 2 players quadrate disconnected again successful some 2016 and 2017.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton win offensively successful wildly antithetic fashions. The MVP has ne'er averaged much than this season's 6.4 assists per game, but helium led the NBA by scoring 32.7 PPG, the sixth-highest mean ever for a full-time constituent guard. Meanwhile, Haliburton is the eventual table-setter, having led the league successful assists per crippled successful 2023-24 and finished 3rd this season. Haliburton is simply a unsafe scorer too, having topped 30 points doubly successful the league finals, but he's susceptible of dominating a crippled without scoring 20.

Both players stock beardown play en way to the Finals. After a dilatory commencement to the playoffs that saw him sprout conscionable 35% successful the archetypal 3 games of the Thunder's expanse of the Memphis Grizzlies, Gilgeous-Alexander has much than validated his MVP award. He leads each players successful wins supra replacement subordinate (WARP) during the playoffs by my metric. Haliburton entered Game 6 of the league finals 3rd successful WARP down Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

-- Kevin Pelton

Haliburton has a passive past vs. OKC

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Tyrese Haliburton's double-double clinches Pacers' NBA Finals berth

Tyrese Haliburton drops 21 points and 13 assists arsenic the Pacers drub the Knicks to clinch an NBA Finals berth.

In theory, the Thunder's defence is ideally suited to halt Haliburton, with Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso each bringing antithetic antiaircraft strengths to the fore against elite guards.

It's played retired that mode against Haliburton. In 4 meetings betwixt these teams implicit the past 2 seasons, Haliburton has averaged conscionable 12 points per crippled -- his lowest mean against immoderate hostile successful that span.

Haliburton has been mostly passive against the Thunder's fleet of perimeter stoppers. His 10.2 tract extremity attempts per crippled are his second-fewest against immoderate hostile successful that span, and his 0.5 free-throw attempts -- he's drawn conscionable 1 shooting foul successful 4 games -- are his fewest. The Thunder person mostly constricted his playmaking, too, arsenic Haliburton's 8.5 assists per crippled against the Thunder are tied for his fourth-fewest against immoderate hostile implicit the past 2 seasons.

Remarkably, Haliburton scored conscionable 8 points connected 10 changeable attempts successful 122 matchups erstwhile helium was guarded by Dort, per GeniusIQ tracking. That's his lowest changeable complaint against immoderate idiosyncratic defender with a minimum of 50 matchups successful that span. (Haliburton's highest shot rate, conversely, came erstwhile helium was matched up against Jalen Brunson, but the Thunder's stout defence doesn't connection immoderate akin targets that helium tin onslaught similar helium did successful the league finals.)

Suffice it to say, the Pacers constituent defender indispensable play overmuch better, and overmuch much aggressively, for his squad to person a accidental astatine a Finals upset.

-- Zach Kram

The Finals features the No. 2 discourtesy vs. the No. 1 defense

It's spot connected spot erstwhile Indiana has the shot during the Finals. The Pacers fertile 2nd among each teams successful playoff violative rating, trailing lone the Cleveland Cavaliers, who feasted connected the Miami Heat successful circular 1 earlier losing to Indiana. On the different side, Oklahoma City's fearsome defense is allowing 3.4 points per 100 possessions less than immoderate different team.

This is the archetypal clip since 2022, erstwhile the No. 1 Golden State discourtesy faced the No. 2 Boston defense, that we've seen this benignant of matchup successful the Finals and the 14th clip full since the NBA began tracking possessions successful 1997.

Over that span, neither elite discourtesy nor elite defence has the wide precocious hand. The top-2 discourtesy has won 7 of the 13 series. Performance connected the non-strength extremity of the tribunal has tended to beryllium a bully predictor. In 9 of the 12 bid wherever 1 squad ranked amended than the different connected the other broadside of the ball, the superior squad has won. That's bully quality for the Thunder, who are 3rd successful violative standing truthful acold successful the playoffs. The Pacers fertile conscionable ninth successful antiaircraft rating.

Don't expect different 3-point barrage from Indy

A cardinal crushed Indiana's discourtesy is truthful electrical and Oklahoma City's defence truthful dampening is some units' mastery of 3-point range. Indiana's 40% 3-point accuracy leads each playoff teams by a wide margin, and Haliburton is the lone Pacers starter beneath that people individually.

That unstoppable unit volition conscionable an immovable entity astatine the 3-point line. Oklahoma City allowed its opponents to sprout conscionable 34% from region successful the regular season, which led the league, and they're down astatine 33% successful the playoffs.

It has agelong been a statement among NBA analysts whether hostile 3-point percent is chiefly the effect of accomplishment oregon of luck -- but astatine immoderate rate, it seems wide that the Thunder defence has some connected its side. According to GeniusIQ, the Thunder ranked 3rd successful hostile 3-point changeable prime this regular play (based connected factors specified arsenic defender region and shooter identity), and they ranked 2nd successful hostile 3-point changeable making (actual accuracy minus expected accuracy).

But the Thunder person 1 weakness successful their 3-point defense. In the regular season, they allowed the third-most 3-pointers successful the league, per Cleaning the Glass, with 41% of their opponents' changeable attempts coming from beyond the arc. And that fig is inactive a precocious 40% successful the postseason, adjacent though they've played a plurality of their playoff games against the Denver Nuggets, who ranked past successful violative 3-point complaint this year.

Oklahoma City strategically chooses to chopped disconnected shots astatine the rim, but that absorption comes with a tradeoff: It has to unrecorded with its opponents firing from deep, adjacent if they're prime shooters, specified arsenic Donte DiVincenzo and Michael Porter Jr. successful earlier rounds. That attack mightiness beryllium disastrous successful the Finals if the Pacers enactment this hot.

But astatine the aforesaid time, the stats suggest that players similar Nembhard (a 29% 3-point shooter successful the regular season) and Siakam (39%) astir apt won't proceed to marque astir fractional their 3-pointers. Whether they tin stave disconnected regression a spot longer could plaything the series.

-- Kram

Prepare for a faster Finals?

Typically, arsenic the stakes emergence and the games get much tense, NBA teams play slower and much methodically. Here is the mean gait for the past 8 Finals:

• 2024: 93.0 possessions per squad per game

• 2023: 91.7

• 2022: 95.4

• 2021: 97.3

• 2020: 94.6

• 2019: 96.9

• 2018: 92.7

• 2017: 100.7

But Oklahoma City and Indiana person shown nary grounds they privation to play slower. The Thunder are averaging 100.6 possessions per playoff crippled this season, which ranks 2nd down lone the Memphis Grizzlies, who mislaid against the Thunder successful a first-round sweep. In 3rd spot down OKC is Indiana, with 98.4 possessions per game.

Put different way, the past genuinely fast-paced Finals was successful 2017, erstwhile the Golden State Warriors -- successful Kevin Durant's archetypal play with the squad -- knocked disconnected the Cleveland Cavaliers successful 5 games.

But based connected however some the Thunder and Pacers similar to play, they mightiness beryllium poised for different high-octane, up-and-down matchup.

-- Kram

Indiana's tally among the astir improbable successful Finals history

Although the Pacers reached the league finals past year, getting swept by the Celtics, oddsmakers gave them small accidental of going a circular further this season. Indiana started the play with 20-1 likelihood to triumph the East astatine ESPN BET, tied for sixth-best successful the conference. After adjusting for the location edge, that implied astir a 4% accidental of the Pacers reaching the Finals.

In presumption of title odds, conscionable 2 teams that reached the Finals successful the past 4 decades person been bigger preseason longshots to triumph it each than Indiana astatine 50-1, per ESPN Research: the 2019-20 Heat (75-1) and 2001-02 New Jersey Nets (60-1).

In summation to those teams, the different 4 with preseason likelihood of 30-1 oregon higher that reached the Finals each mislaid the series. Thus far, the 2014-15 Warriors (28-1) are the astir improbable rubric winners connected grounds successful presumption of preseason odds. If the Pacers spell connected to triumph this bid successful yet different upset, they'd smash that record.

-- Pelton

Two much chances astatine history

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Michael Malone: Thunder are perfectly unrelenting connected defense

Michael Malone joins Scott Van Pelt to interruption down what makes the Thunder truthful hard to halt aft sealing the Western Conference finals.

If the Pacers won the Finals, they'd basal retired against the ranks of past title-winners, each but 2 of which person entered the playoffs arsenic top-3 seeds. The lone exceptions are the 1994-95 Houston Rockets, who were the West's No. 6 effect erstwhile they won their 2nd consecutive title; and the 1968-69 Boston Celtics, who were the East's No. 4 effect erstwhile they won their 11th rubric successful 13 years.

In different words, the Pacers could go the archetypal champion successful league past that wasn't either a top-3 effect oregon a defending champ.

Indiana besides looks similar an antithetic title campaigner due to the fact that of its plus-2.2 constituent differential. Since 1960, the 1994-95 Rockets (plus-2.1) and 1977-78 Washington Bullets (plus-0.9) are the lone champions with worse regular-season figures.

The Pacers' résumé looks highly akin to that of the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks, who had a accidental to execute each of these aforesaid feats that are present connected Indiana's doorstep. Indiana landed the East's No. 4 effect with a 50-32 grounds and plus-2.2 constituent differential; past year's Mavericks landed the West's No. 5 effect with a 50-32 grounds and plus-2.2 constituent differential. Of course, that inferior way grounds paved the mode for Dallas' five-game nonaccomplishment successful the Finals.

On the different side, Oklahoma City would besides fertile toward the utmost extremity of a humanities leaderboard if it won the Finals. The Thunder went 68-14 successful the regular play and, with 4 much wins, would scope 84 full wins for the season; the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who went 72-10 earlier cruising done the playoffs, are the lone champion successful NBA past with more.

For this achievement, it helps that Oklahoma City volition person to rack up 16 playoff wins to clinch the title, portion teams successful earlier eras with much condensed playoff formats didn't request to triumph truthful many.

Still, lone 4 champions successful NBA past finished with a amended regular-season grounds than the Thunder: the 1995-96 Bulls (72-10), the 1996-97 Bulls (69-13), the 1971-72 Lakers (69-13) and the 1966-67 76ers (68-13).

-- Kram