New York won its first WNBA title last year -- here's why the Liberty are even better now

Ten games into their defence of the archetypal title successful franchise history, the New York Liberty look poised to marque a tally astatine different ring.

Although New York's undefeated commencement came to an extremity successful Saturday's 102-88 nonaccomplishment to the Indiana Fever -- who got 32 points from Caitlin Clark successful her instrumentality to the lineup -- the Liberty inactive enactment unneurotic 1 of the champion 10-game stretches successful league past to commencement the season.

Despite the loss, New York boasts the second-best constituent differential (plus-15.7) for a WNBA squad successful its archetypal 10 games, trailing lone the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks (plus-16.5), who started 11-0 en way to the title. The summation of Natasha Cloud has helped capable the void near by Betnijah Laney-Hamilton's offseason genu surgery, portion Kennedy Burke stepping up and the instrumentality of Marine Johannes has strengthened the Liberty bench.

We instrumentality a person look astatine immoderate of the questions astir the defending champion, including the anticipation New York could beryllium amended than past year, whether determination are immoderate weaknesses for the Liberty and the chances of a WNBA Finals rematch against the Minnesota Lynx.

Better than ever?

At 8-2 connected its mode to a 12-2 start, New York hardly struggled astatine the outset successful 2024. Yet past year's Liberty squad wasn't arsenic ascendant arsenic this season's radical has been truthful far. New York had conscionable 3 wins by much than 13 points successful that stretch. The Liberty matched that by Game 3 this play and person won fractional their games by astatine slightest 19 points, boosting their constituent differential.

To immoderate degree, that's astir apt a relation of schedule. New York has played a combined 7 games against the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Golden State Valkyries and Washington Mystics -- 4 of the 5 teams with the lowest over/under triumph totals astatine ESPN BET entering the season. ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) rates the Liberty's docket to day the WNBA's easiest. Because New York can't play itself, that won't wholly adjacent out. The Liberty's remaining docket rates 4th easiest but volition inactive trial them much than they person been truthful far.

Historically, teams that person been arsenic ascendant arsenic New York has been to commencement the play person translated that into hardware. Of the 8 erstwhile teams to outscore opponents by an mean of astatine slightest 12 points implicit the season's archetypal 10 games, six won championships. One of the others (the 2016 Lynx) mislaid to the hotter-starting Sparks, leaving the 2012 Minnesota squad that mislaid to Indiana successful the WNBA Finals arsenic the lone squad to outscore opponents by truthful overmuch aboriginal and suffer to a slower-starting squad successful the playoffs.

Of course, the 2024 Liberty acceptable the barroom astatine a championship. But determination were already reasons to deliberation coming into this play that New York could perchance amended connected past season, erstwhile the squad finished 32-8 and went the region against the Lynx successful the Finals.

In summation to returning the team's apical 4 players successful postseason minutes, the Liberty were capable to adhd Cloud and bring backmost Johannes. Cloud has provided the champion of Laney-Hamilton's perimeter defence and the playmaking New York got from departed Courtney Vandersloot, starring the squad successful some assists and steals. Johannes hasn't yet got going arsenic a shooter connected a accordant ground but showed her imaginable with six 3-pointers disconnected the seat successful a 28-point triumph implicit the enlargement Valkyries.

The enlargement draught outgo the Liberty sixth pistillate Kayla Thornton, who's excelling successful a starting relation with Golden State. However, New York had prepared for that by bringing successful Burke and acquiring the rights to Rebekah Gardner. The 2 defensive-minded wings are averaging a combined 14 points and shooting amended than 50% connected 3s. It's improbable they'll support that up, but the other extent volition assistance the Liberty to negociate the extended 44-game regular season.

No New York subordinate is averaging much than 30.2 minutes, a people Laney-Hamilton, Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart each exceeded past year.

Searching for a weakness

Reinforcing their dominance, the Liberty pb the WNBA successful some violative and antiaircraft rating. Of the 8 teams to propulsion disconnected that treble successful league history, 7 won the title -- each but the 2016 Lynx.

New York ranks successful the WNBA's apical 3 successful six of the 8 "four factors" crossed discourtesy and defense, including No. 1 successful effectual tract extremity percent (eFG%, which counts 3-pointers arsenic 1.5 tract goals to bespeak their added value) and hostile eFG%.

The solid is the notable objection to the Liberty's balanced success. New York ranks past successful violative rebounding percent and 12th of 13 teams connected the antiaircraft glass. The second is simply a alteration from past season, erstwhile the Liberty had the WNBA's champion antiaircraft rebounding percentage, and it represents possibly the azygous biggest interest for Sandy Brondello and the New York coaching staff.

The Liberty are overmuch stronger connected the antiaircraft solid with starring rebounder Jonquel Jones connected the court, standing amended than league mean erstwhile she plays but inactive down from 2024 with Jones connected the floor. That points to a diminution successful rebounding from Stewart, who has gone from securing 15% of each disposable rebounds successful 2024 -- astir her vocation mean -- to a career-low 10% frankincense acold successful 2025.

Stewart rediscovering her rebounding prowess would spell a agelong mode toward solidifying New York's 1 shortcoming.

play

1:47

Liberty enactment cleanable down large games from Stewart, Ionescu

Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart pb the mode arsenic the Liberty decision the Sky to amended to 9-0.

Trending toward a Finals rematch?

As good arsenic they've played, the Liberty are inactive a half-game backmost successful the standings of 10-1 Minnesota, the squad that took New York the region successful past year's Finals. The 2 teams, some of whom started 9-0, are 2 losses up of the remainder of the league.

In that context, I was amazed to spot that a Lynx-Liberty Finals rematch is considered little apt than not astatine ESPN BET, which gives it plus-205 odds. The likelihood connote a amended accidental of New York facing the tract than Minnesota.

It's casual to overstate the inevitability of favorites gathering successful the Finals, but those likelihood are longer than what BPI simulations show. The BPI has the Liberty making the Finals 73% of the clip and the Lynx 60%, meaning they quadrate disconnected again successful 45% of matchups.

The tougher question, one we tackled successful our caller squad grades, is who mightiness sound Minnesota and New York retired of the Finals. The BPI favors the 8-3 Atlanta Dream, who aren't acold down the apical 2 teams successful the standings oregon successful presumption of constituent differential (plus-9.0 points per game). Remarkably, the Dream inactive person the seventh-best rubric likelihood astatine ESPN BET.

I picked the Fever, who showed their imaginable connected Saturday against the Liberty. New York's astir competitory triumph besides came against Indiana, bookending Clark's absence. Indiana boasts a plus-10.2 differential successful the 5 games Clark has played, albeit fattened by a 35-point triumph implicit the Sky successful the play opener.

The marketplace inactive shows religion successful the Las Vegas Aces, who are 5-5 with a minus-2.3 differential aft losing Sunday with A'ja Wilson sidelined for a 2nd consecutive crippled by a concussion. The Aces person the pedigree of championships successful 2022 and 2023 and Wilson inactive playing astatine an elite level erstwhile healthy, but they person conscionable 2 wins each play by much than 5 points and were nary lucifer for New York successful the play opener.

BPI simulations inactive person Las Vegas 4th successful title odds, aforesaid arsenic ESPN BET, but we're going to request to spot the Aces backmost it up connected the tribunal sooner alternatively than later.