Ranking the 30 players who will decide the UEFA Champions League final

Here is the lone prediction you tin beryllium assured successful for Saturday's Champions League final: Paris Saint-Germain volition person much possession than Inter Milan.

Across their 16 matches this season, PSG averaged 60.1% possession -- much than each but Manchester City and Bayern Munich. Inter Milan, meanwhile, controlled conscionable 47% of the shot -- little possession than 22 of the 36 teams that qualified for the league phase.

But possession doesn't adjacent wins. See: Manchester City. And possession doesn't adjacent needfully adjacent amended chances oregon much attempts connected goal. The likelihood bespeak this, too. Based connected what's presently posted astatine ESPN BET, the betting markets springiness PSG a 60% accidental of lifting their archetypal European Cup and Inter a 40% changeable of doing it for the 4th time. For context: the likelihood are rather akin to the 2022 final, erstwhile Liverpool were favored implicit Real Madrid.

Of course, Madrid won that crippled by sitting backmost and trusting that their goalkeeper, Thibault Courtois, would person the crippled of his life. And Saturday's lucifer volition astir apt travel a akin pattern: PSG volition support the ball, Inter volition effort to counter, and the victor volition beryllium determined by a mates of moments of idiosyncratic brilliance.

So, up of the final, let's bash what we did past twelvemonth and fertile the 30 champion players who volition determine who wins the UEFA Champions League final.

1. Ousmane Dembélé, forward, PSG

In mid-March, I said that Dembélé was the champion subordinate successful the satellite astatine that moment. Whether he's been the champion subordinate successful the satellite for the full play oregon since I wrote that portion is an unfastened question, but he's perfectly inactive the champion subordinate connected either of these teams.

He's world-class with some feet. He's an elite passer, an out-of-this-world dribbler, an above-average finisher and a beauteous off-ball runner. Oh, and nether manager Luis Enrique this season, he's turned into a top-tier presser, too. There's nary 1 other successful the satellite who you tin accidental each of those things about.

2. Lautaro Martínez, forward, Inter Milan

With lone 12 goals successful Serie A, helium had a down twelvemonth domestically. And a mates much goals would've astir apt pushed Inter up of Napoli for their 2nd consecutive league title. But beauteous overmuch each of his diminution comes down to finishing: implicit his 7 seasons with Inter, Martinez has scored 9 goals much than his expected-goals tally, but this play helium was 1.5 down the pace.

I've been trying to deliberation of ways to picture what makes Martinez truthful good, since thing helium does connected the tract truly jumps disconnected the screen, grabs you by the collar and says, "Hey, ticker this guy." And I deliberation that's due to the fact that his genuinely elite skills are his quality to get connected the shot successful the astir unsafe areas connected the field, and past to marque the close determination astir each clip helium gets there.

3. Achraf Hakimi, fullback, PSG

One elemental mode I similar to usage to find subordinate worth is to harvester accepted and precocious stats. While a stat similar expected goals (xG) is large for predicting aboriginal performance, really kicking the shot into the extremity provides much in-the-moment worth than immoderate different idiosyncratic enactment a subordinate tin do. To worth everything other that happens connected the field, though, Stats Perform has their expected possession worth stat, which estimates however overmuch each enactment accrued oregon decreased a team's chances of scoring.

Mash that up with goals, and we person a decent, crude small fig for however overmuch worth a fixed subordinate provided successful a season: however overmuch helium capitalized connected the worth his teammates created for him and however overmuch worth helium created for his teammates. Across the league and the Champions League this season, lone 4 players connected these 2 teams complaint higher than Hakimi does -- and they're each forwards.

4. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, forward, PSG

PSG's translation into an unstoppable-seeming juggernaut coincided with 2 things: Dembélé moving to halfway guardant and Kvaratskhelia joining from Napoli.

The high-usage, dribble-and-create winger is the astir in-demand subordinate benignant successful satellite soccer, and we'd already seen Kvara bash it astatine an elite level successful a top-five league for aggregate seasons earlier his 24th birthday. This is the benignant of subordinate that should bid a triple-digit transportation fee, but PSG nabbed him for €70 cardinal from Napoli. He astir apt was headed to PSG nary substance what due to the fact that of the wages connected offer, but everyone different than Real Madrid should've been trying to motion this guy.

5. Alessandro Bastoni, halfway back, Inter Milan

Why bash we emotion him? He's a world-class defender, ranking successful the 99th percentile among halfway backs crossed the Big Five leagues for some progressive passes received and assists. Usually, coaches volition springiness positional state to possibly 1 subordinate -- that subordinate is typically an attacker and that subordinate isn't required to bash overmuch defending. But Inter manager Simone Inzaghi beauteous overmuch lets Bastoni tally wherever the heck helium wants erstwhile Inter are successful possession, arsenic agelong arsenic he's capable to retrieve and defend.

Here are each the passes Bastoni's played this twelvemonth that accrued Inter's chances of scoring by astatine slightest 1 percent:

There's nary 1 similar him successful satellite shot close now.

6. Bradley Barcola, forward, PSG

He mightiness not adjacent commencement the final, but he's lone 22 and his numbers are ridiculous. Here's the apical 10 for expected possession worth added successful unfastened play for Inter and PSG's home and Champions League matches:

On apical of that, he's besides scored 17 goals crossed the 2 competitions. Now, it's hard to justice PSG's players statistically due to the fact that of however overmuch much wealth they person than everyone other successful Ligue 1, but Barcola besides leads this database if we lone look astatine Champions League matches. If I'm Inzaghi, I'm hoping that Désiré Doué gets the motion implicit Barcola connected Saturday.

7. Nicolò Barella, midfielder, Inter Milan

You conscionable saw that chart, right? Among these 2 teams, Barella ranks 2nd successful xPV from passes, 3rd successful xPV from crosses, 4th successful xPV from antiaircraft actions, and sixth successful xPV from take-ons. (Hilariously, Kvara leads each players successful take-on worth ... and helium didn't play for PSG until Jan. 25).

Along with Bastoni, Barella mightiness beryllium the astir important subordinate to the strategy that Simone Inzaghi employs.

It's a backmost three, with wingbacks, 3 midfielders, and 2 forwards. Except, 2 of the midfielders are Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Hakan Çalhanoglu -- the erstwhile is 36 years aged and the second is simply a converted and immobile 31-year-old attacking midfielder. By providing worth successful conscionable astir each country of the game, Barella gives this lopsided strategy just capable equilibrium to forestall it from falling apart.

8. Marcus Thuram, forward, Inter Milan

On the 1 hand, Thuram generated less than 10 expected goals crossed Serie A and the Champions League this season. He's a striker. On the different hand, Thuram does conscionable astir everything other that a striker tin do.

Per PFF FC data, helium sprints much often than immoderate different Inter attacker. And among these 2 teams, lone Barcola, Hakimi, and his teammates Denzel Dumfries person recorded a higher max velocity successful the Champions League truthful acold this season. Not lone that, his size and aerial quality allows Inter to simply conscionable footwear the shot up the tract erstwhile the beauteous small buildup patterns conscionable aren't working.

Inter's two-striker strategy decidedly seems similar it's caught teams disconnected defender successful the Champions League. Well, possibly not disconnected defender -- they cognize they're doing it -- but their opponents aren't utilized to playing against the patterns that 2 cardinal strikers tin make since astir clubs play with 1 cardinal subordinate and 2 wingers. But I besides deliberation that teams have simply been caught disconnected defender by Thuram. There aren't galore forwards these days who are going to trial some your velocity and your willingness to get into a wrestling lucifer successful the aforesaid mode that Thuram volition crossed a azygous match.

9. João Neves, midfielder, PSG

With Kylian Mbappé present gone, manager Luis Enrique has been capable to crook PSG into the champion pressing squad successful the world. They person a super-aggro property similar Barcelona, but it's not arsenic susceptible to balls implicit the top, speedy antagonistic attacks, oregon just, like, a feline dribbling consecutive down the halfway of the tract arsenic Barcelona's is. It works due to the fact that the forwards person each bought in, the fullbacks are immoderate of the champion athletes successful the world, and Joao Neves is immoderate benignant of unholy operation betwixt a piranha, a pitbull, and Mousa Dembele.

Per PFF FC, with PSG retired of possession successful the Champions League, Neves has covered 55.31 kilometers and made 674 high-speed runs (between 20 and 25 kilometers per hour). Among everyone other who could play successful this game, nary 1 other is wrong 100 high-speed runs of Neves, and nary 1 other has adjacent deed 52 kilometers covered without the ball. He's listed astatine 5-foot-9 and astir apt lone weighs astir 155 pounds but his carnal interaction is person to idiosyncratic who's 6-foot-1 and astir 40 pounds heavier.

10. Nuno Mendes, fullback, PSG

He came arsenic adjacent arsenic you tin to shutting down some Mohamed Salah and Bukayo Saka successful PSG's matchups with Liverpool and Arsenal. That'd astir apt beryllium capable to sneak him into the apical 10, but helium besides played vital, line-breaking passes against some teams that yet created the moves that led to PSG's winning goals astatine Anfield and the Emirates.

As is becoming a taxable of this database -- and possibly is simply a larger taxable oregon wherever the athletics presently is -- Mendes is susceptible successful conscionable astir each signifier of the game: defending, shot carrying, build-up passing, accidental creation, modulation recovery. Along with his teammate connected the different side, Mendes is 1 of the past remaining endline-to-endline fullbacks.

T-11. Gianluigi Donnarumma, goalkeeper, PSG

T-11. Yann Sommer, goalkeeper, Inter MIlan

If kicking the shot into the extremity is the astir invaluable enactment a subordinate tin take, past it stands to crushed that blocking the shot from going into the extremity would beryllium astir arsenic valuable. I deliberation that's existent -- and I'd reason that some of these keepers person a amended accidental of straight affecting the result of the last than anyone other connected this list.

But it's not casual to cognize however bully a fixed 'keeper really is. At least, the numbers we have, which look astatine wherever shots extremity up connected the extremity framework and comparison the expected result to the fig of goals the keeper allows, tin beryllium beauteous volatile from play to season. So, either keeper show itself is rather volatile, oregon we're not really measuring keeper show properly.

Sommer has saved a ton of goals this season, and Donnarumma saved a ton of goals the play before, truthful we're lumping them together. I think they're 2 of the amended keepers successful the world, but who knows what that'll mean successful Munich connected Saturday.

13. Vitinha, midfielder, PSG

There was a insubstantial a fewer years agone that summed up however players supply worth successful possession successful a bully and elemental way: immoderate players transportation a load of tons of debased worth actions that yet adhd up, portion others execute a tiny fig of actions, but astir of them are precocious value. And past there's Lionel Messi, who managed to bash both. Vitinha, though, is possibly the purest illustration of the archetypal version. He's attempted 3,573 passes crossed the 2 large competitions this season, portion nary 1 other connected either squad comes wrong 500 passes of him.

T-14. Marquinhos, halfway back, PSG

T-14. Willian Pacho, halfway back, PSG

I'm cheating again, but let maine to support myself for a second: successful a backmost four, nary halfway backmost is acting connected his own. They stock the mediate of the tract and the responsibilities that travel on with defending it. And this brace itself makes a batch of sense. Marquinhos provides a ton of worth successful possession, portion Pacho cleans up whenever the property gets broken. Among halfway backs successful the Champions League this season, per PFF FC, he's accelerated much often (a velocity summation of greater than 3 meters per 2nd squared) and covered much crushed than anyone else.

16. Désiré Doué, forward, PSG

This is wholly subjective, but I conscionable consciousness similar helium holds onto the shot a small excessively agelong and takes shots from a small excessively acold out. OK, the 2nd portion is conscionable a fact; he's averaging 0.09 xG per shot, portion the Europe-wide mean is astir 0.11. Barcola is simply a fantastic runner disconnected the shot who tin besides people and make goals, and Doue doesn't rather person the archetypal portion down yet. And wherefore would he? The dude is lone 19! But for each his accumulation connected the ball, I deliberation the pieces of PSG acceptable unneurotic much smoothly -- and they play much fluidly -- erstwhile he's not a portion of the beforehand three.

17. Denzel Dumfries, wingback, Inter Milan

The prime betwixt Dumfries and Inter's different wingback, Federico Dimarco, is mostly a substance of idiosyncratic preference. But I'm going with Dumfries supra Dimarco due to the fact that he's particularly important to what Inter do. Without 3 attackers, they request to find different players to clang the box, and Dumfries gets a ton of touches wrong the punishment area.

We don't speech astir mismatches that often successful soccer, but Dumfries genuinely is one. Most wingbacks are smaller, much constricted athletes, but Dumfries is 6-2, he's the fastest subordinate connected Inter, and helium sprints much often than anyone connected either team, per PFF FC. On apical of that, he's besides ascendant successful the air.

While Nuno Mendes handled Salah and Saka's changeless crushed menace rather well, Dumfries and his late, sporadic runs into the container onto balls successful the aerial volition beryllium a wholly antithetic challenge.

18. Federico Dimarco, wingback, Inter Milan

Among wide defenders crossed Europe's 5 large leagues, Dimarco ranks successful the 97th percentile for expected assists and crosses attempted. Also, he's 5-foot-9. These are each the chances he's created from unfastened play this season:

Now that's what a wingback usually looks like.

19. Fabián Ruiz, midfielder, PSG

One of the biggest reasons these 2 teams are successful the last is that their players complement each different truthful well. Lautaro and Thuram signifier a classical big-and-small striker partnership. PSG's forwards tin each interchange crossed the beforehand three. Inter's helping backs supply wholly antithetic accomplishment sets from each other, portion PSG's halfway backs screen each the skills you privation from a duo astatine that position.

The aforesaid holds existent for PSG's midfield. Neves is simply a antiaircraft demon, portion Vitinha volition implicit 100 passes successful a fixed crippled and possibly misplace 4 oregon five. They're some tiny and seldom get into the punishment area, but that's wherever Ruiz comes in. He's 6-foot-2 and breaks into the container and takes shots truthful often that his closest comp connected the tract FBref is Bruno Fernandes. Ruiz utilized to beryllium a do-everything midfield colossus and arsenic he's gotten older, helium inactive does everything, conscionable astatine a overmuch little clip.

20. Henrikh Mkhitaryan, midfielder, Inter Milan

Based connected those xPV numbers listed above, Mkhi should beryllium mode higher, but we'll telephone this a compromise. It's astonishing that he's inactive contributing astatine this level astatine property 36, fixed that helium looked similar helium might've been cooked erstwhile helium was inactive with Manchester United. He's not arsenic dilatory arsenic helium should be, and among these 2 teams, lone Joao Neves has covered much crushed per crippled successful the Champions League.

21. Hakan Çalhanoglu, midfielder, Inter Milan

As these rankings suggest, the biggest mismatch connected Saturday should beryllium successful the midfield. Without the ball, each of PSG's midfielders screen much crushed than Inter's 3 midfielders. Per each 90 minutes they walk retired of possession, PSG's trio averages 161 high-speed runs, portion Inter's midfield 3 mean conscionable 108.

That, too, is simply a microcosm of possibly the defining diagnostic of Saturday's match. In the Champions League, PSG's mean age, weighted by minutes played, is 25.0 -- tied for fourth-youngest successful the competition. Inter, meanwhile, person averaged retired astatine 30.3 years aged -- a afloat twelvemonth older than the adjacent oldest team.

22. Benjamin Pavard, halfway back, Inter Milan

Just a truly coagulated player. Can play fullback, accepted halfway back, oregon wide halfway back, and he'll support good crossed a fig of situations and supply immoderate decent, harmless passing retired from the back. He's been injured for a bully chunk of the season, but if Inzaghi deems him steadfast enough, he'll commencement the final.

23. Francesco Acerbi, halfway back, Inter Milan

Acerbi is good! But this is the Champions League final, and he's a 37-year-old halfway backmost who is going to beryllium the slowest non-goalkeeper successful either starting lineup and is rather constricted with the shot astatine his feet. That lands you extracurricular the apical 20.

24. Davide Frattesi, midfielder, Inter Milan

He was fantastic disconnected the seat successful the 2nd limb against Barcelona. He scored the victor and rather astir passed retired from excitement -- literally. When he's connected the field, Inter are fundamentally playing with 3 forwards. His occupation is to interruption into the punishment area, instrumentality shots -- and that's it.

25. Warren Zaïre-Emery, midfielder, PSG

Do not panic! It feels similar he's had a down year, but he's inactive played a ton of minutes for possibly the champion squad successful the world, and helium lone turned 19 a fewer months ago. There's nary shame successful not being capable to interruption into that PSG midfield.

26. Piotr Zielinski, midfielder, Inter Milan

The program had to beryllium for Zielinski to instrumentality implicit for Mkhitaryan successful the midfield this season, but the erstwhile Napoli stalwart conscionable hasn't been capable to summation Inzaghi's spot successful his archetypal twelvemonth with Inter. PSG's midfield made Liverpool's midfield look unathletic astatine times, truthful it wouldn't daze maine if Zielinski gets onto the tract aboriginal if things commencement to get sketchy.

27. Gonçalo Ramos, forward, PSG

His per-90-minute numbers proceed to beryllium absurd, but that tin hap erstwhile you get to play with PSG's wingers and fullbacks and midfield --usually against bushed opponents who are chasing the crippled against you and leaving a ton of space. The biggest contented with Ramos, I think? He's really slow. Among each the players to diagnostic successful astatine slightest 200 Champions League minutes for these 2 teams, lone the 2 goalkeepers person a little max velocity than helium does.

28. Yann Bisseck, halfway back, Inter Milan

Really amusive subordinate -- deliberation Bastoni but much fullback tendencies than midfielder tendencies. But we're inactive moving disconnected of a tenable tiny illustration size of minutes astatine the highest level. If helium starts implicit Pavard, it'll beryllium truly amusive to spot Bisseck, who is 6-foot-4, and Dumfries quadrate disconnected against Mendes and Kvicha connected that broadside of the field.

29. Mehdi Taremi, forward, Inter Milan

If you privation a striker that won't sprout the shot but volition A) beryllium stunningly handsome, and B) make chances for his teammates, past Taremi is your guy.

30. Lucas Hernández, defender, PSG

At conscionable 22, helium was 1 of the starting fullbacks for France erstwhile they won the World Cup successful 2018. And arsenic hybrid center/fullback, helium was besides 1 of the earliest examples of a positional inclination that would expanse the sport. But that World Cup inactive marks the highest of Hernandez's career. He's lone 29, and the lone mode he'll look successful the last is if idiosyncratic gets wounded oregon Luis Enrique decides it's clip to effort to bent onto a lead.