Reacting to the preseason FPI rankings: Who's overvalued, who's undervalued

ESPN has released its 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, and our assemblage shot reporters are present to interruption them down.

The ratings, for the uninitiated, see forecasts for each team's record, its chances of winning a league rubric and of course, its probability to marque the expanded 12-team playoff and triumph the nationalist championship.

The FPI is simply a powerfulness standing that tracks each team's spot comparative to an mean FBS squad. Teams are rated connected offense, defence and peculiar teams, with the values representing points per game.

You tin work Neil Paine's takeaways present and get our staff's investigation below.

Which squad is FPI undervaluing?

Paolo Uggetti: Even though Kenny Dillingham said astatine Big 12 outpouring meetings precocious that being considered 1 of the conference's favorites aft being picked to decorativeness past successful 2024 is "less fun," I inactive deliberation FPI is somewhat undervaluing the Sun Devils astatine No. 24. Sure, they mislaid prima moving backmost Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, but they besides instrumentality a backmost successful Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns past year) who could beryllium a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and antiaircraft backmost Xavion Alford, among respective different starters and stalwarts of past year's Cinderella season. Dillingham won't flinch astatine present being considered a favourite to triumph the league and I ideate he'll person ASU with plentifulness of occurrence and information travel kickoff. It would not daze maine to spot them marque different playoff run.

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Kenny Dillingham: ASU facing a antithetic benignant of adversity this year

Arizona State caput manager Kenny Dillingham explains the differences his squad is facing this play aft coming disconnected a Big 12 rubric past season.

Mark Schlabach: I deliberation you tin reason that Clemson is 1 of the 2 champion teams successful the FBS entering the play (along with Penn State), and it's surely 1 of the champion 10, truthful it's astonishing to spot them successful astatine No. 11. In our workfellow Jordan Reid's archetypal 2026 NFL mock draft, helium had 4 Tigers going successful the archetypal round, including backmost Cade Klubnik astatine No. 1. Three seasons ago, Clemson fans wondered whether Klubnik was the close feline for the job, present he's considered 1 of the astir polished passers successful the sport, aft throwing for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and six interceptions past season. The Tigers person the champion antiaircraft enactment successful the FBS, and Reid had tackle Peter Woods and borderline rusher T.J. Parker going successful the apical 10, arsenic well. The Tigers unfastened the play against LSU astatine location and play astatine South Carolina successful the finale, but I can't spot galore ACC teams beating them.

Bill Connelly: There are rather a fewer non-SEC teams we could take from here, but I'm going to spell with No. 39 Iowa. The Hawkeyes person much to regenerate connected defence than usual, but a) I can't adjacent unreal similar they'll person thing different than a top-10 oregon top-15 defence until proven otherwise, and b) the discourtesy improved importantly past twelvemonth (albeit from horrific to simply mediocre) and mightiness person made a beauteous QB upgrade by bringing successful South Dakota State's Mark Gronowski. Losing moving backmost Kaleb Johnson hurts, but this precise overmuch feels similar a top-25-level squad to me, 1 I spot rather a spot much than rather a fewer of the teams straight up of the Hawkeyes successful FPI.

Jake Trotter: Indiana did postgraduate backmost Kurtis Rourke, who had a fabulous 1 play for the Hoosiers portion propelling them to the playoff and the archetypal 10-win play successful schoolhouse history. Indiana, however, returns respective cardinal players from past year's squad, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt, antiaircraft extremity Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D'Angelo Ponds. The Hoosiers besides added Cal transportation backmost Fernando Mendoza, who brought plentifulness of acquisition (19 vocation starts) with him to Bloomington. Curt Cignetti has already proved helium tin coach. And with nary Ohio State oregon Michigan connected the schedule, it wouldn't beryllium wholly stunning if Indiana knocks connected the doorway of playoff contention erstwhile again.

Which squad is FPI overvaluing?

Trotter: So we're doing this again, huh? Every preseason, Texas A&M gets top-10 hype. Every season, the Aggies neglect to present connected it. Texas A&M has reached double-digit wins conscionable erstwhile this period (the Johnny Football twelvemonth successful 2012). And yet, FPI is giving them the payment of uncertainty again arsenic the No. 8-ranked team. Mike Elko is simply a terrific manager and the Aggies, arsenic always, person talent, including intriguing dual-threat sophomore backmost Marcel Reed. But the Aggies ranked 51st past twelvemonth successful violative EPA and 47th successful antiaircraft EPA. That hardly screams apical 10 team. What's truly determination to suggest the Aggies volition beryllium immoderate antithetic than what they've been?

Connelly: We can't accidental for definite that FPI is overvaluing Texas due to the fact that if Arch Manning lives up to his hype, the Longhorns truly mightiness beryllium the champion squad successful the country. However, if he's simply precise bully alternatively of great, past holes elsewhere mightiness go problematic. This is, aft all, a squad that mislaid 4 violative enactment starters, its apical 4 antiaircraft linemen and 2 of the champion DBs successful the state successful Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian has evidently recruited well, the replacements for those mislaid linemen could beryllium excellent, and Texas volition beryllium precise bully regardless. But they're lone No. 1 if Arch is an All-American. No pressure.

Uggetti: I'm having a hard clip with Miami each the mode up astatine No. 9. I tin spot the lawsuit for it: They person a coagulated halfway of players returning passim the roster and caput manager Mario Cristobal and his unit were transportation portal merchants this offseason, bringing successful respective violative weapons specified arsenic wideouts CJ Daniels (LSU), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati) arsenic good arsenic immoderate overmuch needed assistance successful the secondary via cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and information Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). Of course, the crux of the hype surrounding the Hurricanes hinges connected their biggest portal addition, backmost Carson Beck. After losing Cameron Ward to the draft, Cristobal & Co. are banking connected Beck (who is coming disconnected country for a torn UCL successful his close elbow) to beryllium the feline who was expected to pb Georgia to a nationalist title. Count maine among the skeptics.

Schlabach: Given what transpired astatine Tennessee successful the spring, I'm not definite the Volunteers are a top-25 squad heading into the season, fto unsocial 1 that should beryllium ranked No. 10. I didn't person the Volunteers ranked successful my latest Way-Too-Early Top 25. I could spot the Vols going 1 of 2 ways aft backmost Nico Iamaleava up and near for UCLA pursuing an NIL dispute: The Vols are going to beryllium amended disconnected with backmost Joey Aguilar and his teammates volition rally astir him, oregon Augilar's leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is excessively high. The Vols were already facing an uphill ascent connected offense, successful my opinion, aft SEC starring rusher Dylan Sampson departed, on with 3 of the team's apical receivers.

Which powerfulness league squad extracurricular the FPI apical 25 tin marque a run?

Trotter: Texas Tech landed the nation's top transportation portal class, beefing up the trenches connected some sides of the shot to a squad that went 8-5 past season. With 24 vocation starts down him, backmost Behren Morton should beryllium adjacent amended aft throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns past year. If the portal additions playing up beforehand defensively, combined with the accomplishment of caller antiaircraft coordinator Shiel Wood, tin bolster a portion that ranked conscionable 108th successful EPA past year, the Red Raiders could endanger for a league rubric and playoff berth successful what figures to beryllium different wide-open Big 12.

Connelly: I would accidental that fractional the Big 12 is susceptible of playing astatine a top-15 oregon top-20 level and making a league rubric (and, therefore, CFP) run, but I'm peculiarly intrigued by the duo of No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor. They some won six of their past 7 to extremity the season, and they some instrumentality stellar quarterbacks successful Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor). I consciousness similar I spot TCU's returning unit more, but Baylor's Dave Aranda was highly progressive successful the transportation portal, too. The Revivalry -- hey, it's a amended sanction than Bluebonnet Battle -- is connected October 18, and the victor volition astir apt caput into November arsenic a superior Big 12 contender.

Uggetti: Washington (No. 27) had a disappointing 6-7 play successful its archetypal twelvemonth successful the Big 12 nether caller manager Jedd Fisch. The Huskies finished ninth successful the league and look to person softly stumbled into the shadiness of their much palmy Pacific Northwest neighbor, Oregon. But Fisch, similar helium showed astatine Arizona, tin physique a palmy squad implicit time. Washington brought successful a top-25 recruiting class this past twelvemonth and added immoderate much-needed antiaircraft reinforcements successful the portal. Snagging four-star wide receiver Johntay Cook II from Texas volition beryllium a boon for expected starting backmost Demond Williams Jr. who, aft showing immoderate flashes past season, could beryllium primed for a breakout.

Which team's unusual ranking volition beryllium proven close by the extremity of the season?

Schlabach: There's a smorgasbord of "odd" rankings to prime from. I deliberation you tin reason that No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 14 Auburn, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 19 USC are astir apt ranked excessively high, and No. 12 LSU, No. 29 BYU, No. 31 Indiana and No. 35 Texas Tech are excessively low. LSU mightiness person the SEC's champion backmost successful Garrett Nussmeier, and manager Brian Kelly struck golden successful the transportation portal, landing antiaircraft ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), violative linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). But LSU's docket is difficult, with roadworthy games astatine Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, and I'm not definite they'll beryllium amended than 9-3, which would enactment them close astir No. 12.

Uggetti: I'll instrumentality 1 of the teams Mark mentioned and absorption connected USC. At archetypal glance, I was besides amazed that FPI has them each the mode up to No. 19 fixed the Trojans are coming disconnected a disappointing 7-6 debut play successful the Big 10. But the Trojans person made respective strides this offseason, not conscionable arsenic a programme by hiring wide manager Chad Bowden from USC, but besides arsenic a squad to enactment themselves successful presumption to astonishment successful 2025. The defence continues to usage the portal to adhd cardinal endowment specified arsenic antiaircraft tackles Jamaal Jarrett (Georgia) and Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky). The astir breathtaking subordinate connected the team, however, whitethorn beryllium incoming freshman antiaircraft lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who is apt to marque an interaction close away. A batch of the Trojans' hopes this play are riding connected backmost Jayden Maiava and however helium fares successful his archetypal afloat play arsenic a starter. He finished with 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns past play and a 2nd twelvemonth successful Lincoln Riley's discourtesy should service him well. USC's docket starts disconnected slow, but the existent trial of the Trojans' imaginable volition beryllium connected the backmost extremity erstwhile they look a agelong of Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame earlier finishing the play with Oregon, Iowa and UCLA.