Sun Belt Conference preview: James Madison looks to close deal this time

James Madison has won 28 games successful 3 seasons, portion South Alabama has won 24. Louisiana has 4 10-win seasons successful the past six years, Troy has 5 successful the past nine, and Appalachian State has 5 successful the past 10. Hell, adjacent with a caller stumble, Coastal Carolina has 2 successful the past five.

Texas State is coming disconnected its 2 champion FBS seasons. Georgia Southern is coming disconnected its champion play successful 4 years, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe their champion successful 5 and Marshall its champion successful nine. Even Georgia State has 5 winning seasons successful the past 8 years.

Nearly everyone successful the Sun Belt has reached coagulated to large heights of late. Considering the immutable information that idiosyncratic has to suffer each shot game, that's an awfully awesome motion of parity and wide league health.

At the moment, though, there's a spot of a enactment void: Troy mislaid its caput manager aft winning the 2022 and 2023 Sun Belt titles and fell disconnected past fall, and damned if Marshall doesn't look primed to bash precisely the aforesaid aft past season's rubric run. Does that mean it's James Madison's turn? The Dukes dropped the baton successful 2024, falling retired of contention acknowledgment to a brace of maddening two-point losses. If they stumble again, volition that permission the doorway unfastened for Louisiana? Texas State? South Alabama? Another team?

Someone has to travel retired connected top. Let's preview the Sun Belt!

Every week done the summer, Bill Connelly volition preview different FBS conference, yet including each 136 FBS teams. The previews volition see 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.

Earlier previews: MAC | Conference USA | Mountain West

2024 recap

Last season, the champion teams connected insubstantial weren't the champion successful adjacent games, and that made the Sun Belt contention an awfully astonishing one. James Madison and Texas State some finished successful the SP+ apical 50, but they each went 1-2 successful one-score Sun Belt finishes, and precocious antiaircraft stumbles near them connected the extracurricular of the league race. South Alabama hinted astatine large upside but couldn't adjacent games retired either.

Louisiana was adjacent up connected the SP+ hierarchy and utilized a six-game winning streak to gain a spot successful the Sun Belt title game, but a brace of late-season QB injuries rendered its discourtesy incompetent successful the rubric game. And portion everyone other was stumbling late, Marshall peaked: The Thundering Herd ranked 82nd successful SP+ with conscionable a 5-3 grounds heading into Week 11 but won their past 5 games by an mean of 35-19 and grabbed the title, each portion an evidently contentious school/coach narration was pushing Charles Huff retired the door. (He landed astatine Southern Miss.)

It was an unusual season, successful different words. And if I person immoderate accidental successful the matter, 2025 volition beryllium conscionable arsenic odd.

Continuity table

The continuity array looks astatine each team's returning accumulation levels (offense, defence and overall), the fig of 2024 FBS starts from some returning and incoming players, and the approximate fig of redshirt freshmen connected the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes marque it precise hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an progressively hard creation successful roster management, but immoderate teams propulsion it disconnected amended than others.

We're rapidly increasing accustomed to a caller caput manager bringing immoderate of his aged players with him. But we've got an utmost illustration of that going connected astatine Southern Miss successful 2025: When USM hired Huff the time aft Marshall's Sun Belt title win, truthful galore Marshall players entered the transportation portal that the schoolhouse had to opt retired of its Independence Bowl berth.

When the particulate settled, 50 Marshall players had entered the portal successful the wintertime and outpouring windows, and 21 of them had landed astatine Southern Miss. About one-fourth of the Golden Eagles' roster played successful Huntington past year. And contempt caller Herd caput manager Tony Gibson bringing successful 55 transfers of his own, Marshall heads toward the 2025 play with the lowest returning accumulation averages successful the country. The Herd officially instrumentality 3 starters from past year's champ, portion Southern Miss, which went 1-11 past season, returns five. Mind-blowing stuff.

Other absorbing continuity notes: Despite losing prima moving backmost Ahmad Hardy to Missouri, ULM's accumulation numbers are bully aft a refreshing 5-7 run successful Bryant Vincent's archetypal play astatine the helm; Georgia Southern deed the 60% people arsenic well; and astatine the different end, App State is starting over: After suffering their archetypal losing play astatine the FBS level, the Mountaineers volition person a caller caput manager (Dowell Loggains) and astir 17 caller starters.

2025 projections

SP+ fundamentally declares JMU the favorite, past shrugs. The Dukes were frustrating but often awesome successful 2024, and they instrumentality breathtaking dual-threat backmost Alonza Barnett III -- assuming afloat wellness aft a late-season injury, anyhow -- positive a loaded moving backmost country and, contempt losing prima antiaircraft extremity Eric O'Neill to Rutgers, possibly the conference's astir proven acceptable of antiaircraft personnel. They merit the apical spot, and if they stumble again, I person perfectly nary thought who should beryllium adjacent connected the list.

Meanwhile, the projections for Marshall and Southern Miss service arsenic a reminder that, contempt making tons of adjustments to however I spell astir creating SP+ projections, it's truly hard to get a statistical work connected what either the Herd oregon Golden Eagles mightiness beryllium susceptible of successful 2025. I would expect Southern Miss to beryllium a premier overachievement candidate, portion Marshall truly mightiness conflict to adjacent fertile 87th.

Indeed, aft JMU up top, SP+ gives 9 teams betwixt a 5% and 11% accidental of winning the league title. As with past year, whoever wins its adjacent games and peaks successful November volition person an fantabulous chance.

Five champion games of 2025

Here's wherever I typically stock the 5 league games that diagnostic (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for some teams and (b) a projected scoring borderline nether 10 points. But since each the apical games (and the apical nonconference game) diagnostic James Madison -- the Dukes person rather the roadworthy slate up -- I tweaked the attack a bit. Here are 5 big games, if not the 5 champion arsenic defined above.

James Madison astatine Liberty (Sept. 20). For each we know, this 1 mightiness person College Football Playoff implications. JMU and Liberty person been 2 of the much steadily beardown Group of 5 programs implicit the past 2 oregon 3 years, and some stumbled astatine inopportune times successful 2024.

JMU's docket is simply a road-heavy delight, from apical to bottom. The Dukes sojourn Louisville and Liberty successful September, past sojourn Texas State, Marshall and Coastal Carolina implicit the backmost fractional of the season. Throw successful location games against Georgia Southern and Louisiana and a precocious November sojourn from Washington State, and you've got 1 unsocial slate.

Georgia Southern astatine James Madison (Sept. 27). SP+ is optimistic astir Georgia Southern's chances of becoming a contender successful 2025, and this crippled volition beryllium a beauteous coagulated prove-it accidental successful that regard.

South Alabama astatine Troy (Oct. 4). South Alabama mightiness person mislaid much endowment than anyone other successful FBS successful the outpouring portal window, but the Jaguars inactive instrumentality rather a bit, and Troy's continuity levels are coagulated aft a setback season. Depending connected however good Texas State handles roster turnover, the victor of this 1 could go Louisiana's biggest rival successful the West Division. (That's right: The Sun Belt inactive has divisions! And makes existent geographic sense!)

Louisiana astatine James Madison (Oct. 11) and Louisiana astatine South Alabama (Nov. 1). Like JMU, Michael Desormeaux's Ragin' Cajuns volition request to beryllium roadworthy warriors to fulfill their potential.

Conference rubric (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

James Madison Dukes

Head coach: Bob Chesney (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: 49th successful SP+, 8.5 mean wins (6.0 successful the Sun Belt)

Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston ... we've seen plentifulness of fantabulous FCS-to-FBS transitions done the years. But JMU mightiness crook retired to beryllium the golden modular successful this regard. The Dukes began FBS beingness with 5 consecutive wins and an AP canvass appearance, and it was a genuine astonishment that they didn't play for the Sun Belt rubric successful their archetypal play eligible past year. The adjacent clip they decorativeness extracurricular of the SP+ apical 50 volition beryllium the first, and they aren't projected to bash truthful successful 2025.

It would beryllium adjacent brighter, potentially, if we knew Alonza Barnett III would beryllium 100%. The inferior QB combined 2,598 passing yards (and a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) with 669 non-sack rushing yards past twelvemonth earlier injuring his limb against Marshall. He was cleared lone for non-contact drills this spring, and his presumption remains unclear. Heading into his 2nd play aft succeeding Curt Cignetti, Chesney took nary chances, bringing successful 2 QB transfers: Richmond's Camden Coleman and Matthew Sluka;. Sluka is known chiefly for his NIL-related opt-out astatine UNLV past season, but earlier that helium was a prima for Chesney astatine Holy Cross, leaving arsenic the Crusaders' No. 2 vocation rusher and No. 5 vocation passer and a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist (top subordinate successful FCS). Chesney and violative coordinator Dean Kennedy emotion a nice, durable dual-threat QB, and some Sluka and Coleman (to a degree) suffice if Barnett isn't ready.

The RB corps mightiness beryllium 1 of the champion successful the FBS. George Pettaway and backups Wayne Knight and Jobi Malary combined to mean 22 carries per crippled and 6.0 yards per carry, and Ayo Adeyi, injured for astir of 2024, was a 1,000-yard rusher astatine North Texas successful 2023. The enactment successful beforehand of them does person to regenerate 3 starters, but close tackle Pat McMurtrie is the lone returning subordinate connected the first-team All-Sun Belt list, 3 different returning veterans person starting experience, and Chesney brought successful erstwhile North Carolina halfway Zach Greenberg and all-Patriot League enactment Cam McNair (Holy Cross), among 4 transfers. He besides dipped heavy into the portal to find walk catchers: Sure-handed slot antheral Yamir Knight volition beryllium joined by some erstwhile powerfulness league reserves successful Braeden Wisloski (Maryland) and 6-foot-4 Isaiah Alston (Iowa State) and FCS starters Landon Ellis (Richmond), Nick DeGennaro (Richmond) and Jaylan Sanchez (Villanova).

Chesney besides was beauteous assertive connected defense, adding 13 transfers to a lineup that boasts immoderate proven pieces -- 315-pound tackle Immanuel Bush, linebacker Trent Hendrick, information Jacob Thomas, nickel DJ Barksdale -- but returns lone 7 of the 19 players who saw astatine slightest 200 snaps successful 2024. Again, helium dipped heavy into the FCS ranks, bringing successful stars specified arsenic antiaircraft extremity Xavier Holmes (12.5 TFLs astatine Maine), tackle Andrew Taddeo (7.5 TFLs astatine Colgate), linebacker JT Kouame-Yao (11.5 TFLs astatine Shepherd), information Curtis Harris-Lopez (9.5 TFLs and 9 passes defended astatine Holy Cross) and country TJ McGill (six passes defended arsenic a freshman astatine William & Mary), positive erstwhile blue-chip antiaircraft extremity Aiden Gobaira (Notre Dame).

There are capable caller pieces present that occurrence isn't guaranteed, but the operation of proven endowment and proven smaller-school playmakers -- particularly astatine a schoolhouse that has much than proven that FCS stars tin go FBS stalwarts -- makes JMU the preseason league favorite. It's up to the Dukes to adjacent the woody this time.

South Alabama Jaguars

Head coach: Major Applewhite (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 76th successful SP+, 7.3 mean wins (5.2 successful the Sun Belt)

As a redshirt freshman, Gio Lopez ranked seventh among G5 quarterbacks successful Total QBR. He's a North Carolina Tar Heel now. As a existent freshman, Fluff Bothwell was a bolt of lightning, gaining 924 yards successful conscionable 124 combined rushes and receptions and scoring 13 times. He's present a Mississippi State Bulldog. Right tackle Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) ... borderline rusher Aakil Washington (SMU) ... cornerbacks Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest) and Amarion Fortenberry (Kansas State) ... injured cornerback Ricky Fletcher (Ole Miss) ... nickel backmost Jordan Scruggs (West Virginia) ... adjacent kicker Laith Marjan (Kansas). A full clump of South Alabama players flashed large potential, past got plucked distant successful the transportation portal. Offensive coordinator Rob Izell (Wake Forest) fundamentally did too.

Players moving up and down the ladder with lightning velocity is simply a grounds of the portal era, and fewer schools had much players determination up than Major Applewhite's USA. If you look solely astatine who they don't have, successful fact, it's hard to envision the Jags playing a large relation successful the Sun Belt contention successful 2025.

If you look astatine who they bash have, however, they mightiness inactive person a chance:

• Quarterbacks Bishop Davenport and Zach Pyron (Georgia Tech) some person starting acquisition and person flashed dual-threat capabilities.

• Veteran moving backmost Kentrel Bullock had 984 rushing and receiving yards (5.9 per touch) contempt sharing touches with Bothwell.

• Left tackle Jordan Davis is an all-conference contender and 1 of 3 returning starters up front. Applewhite managed to clasp connected to astir of past year's two-deep, successful fact, and added six O-line transfers.

• Defensive tackle Ed Smith IV made 7.0 tackles astatine oregon down the enactment past twelvemonth and has beardown walk rushing chops for his size, and 334-pound Stephen Johnson (McNeese State) is 1 of 4 antiaircraft enactment transfers.

• Linebacker Blayne Myrick is among the astir proven tally stoppers successful the league.

Few of Applewhite's antiaircraft transfers person a disruptive way grounds similar JMU's -- antiaircraft extremity IBK Mafe (St. Thomas) and country Jayvon Henderson (East Tennessee State) are the astir promising successful that respect -- but astir of them are higher-upside youngsters who mightiness make into coagulated pieces. (Of course, that besides mightiness mean they get plucked away.) If either Davenport oregon Pyron are acceptable to radiance and an unproven receiving corps provides immoderate semblance of value, it definite seems similar there's capable endowment present to astatine slightest proceed a three-year tally of vessel eligibility. Sun Belt contention volition necessitate rather a fewer newcomers and youngsters to interruption through. Considering however galore did past year, there's a chance.

Georgia Southern Eagles

Head coach: Clay Helton (fourth year, 20-19 overall)

2025 projection: 78th successful SP+, 7.3 mean wins (5.0 successful the Sun Belt)

Clay Helton served arsenic an aboriginal exemplary of however portal beingness tin enactment erstwhile helium arrived astatine Georgia Southern successful 2022, instantly reset the Eagles' full individuality with a batch of cardinal transfers and inactive managed to upset Nebraska and treble their triumph total. I don't privation to overstate his occurrence -- he's fundamentally .500 done 3 years -- but successful an progressively volatile G5 environment, he's produced unchangeable results. And contempt violative inconsistency, past twelvemonth was his champion yet: Georgia Southern inched up to 76th successful SP+ and won 8 games.

In 2025, Helton and the Eagles boast a promising operation of proven pieces and intriguing caller ones. Quarterback JC French threw excessively galore interceptions past twelvemonth (11) and indispensable amended successful that regard, but successful slot receivers Dalen Cobb and Josh Dallas (combined: 1,213 yards and 10 TDs), choky extremity River Helms (Western Kentucky) and returning third-down backmost OJ Arnold, the Eagles person the components of an businesslike attack. That's doubly existent erstwhile you spot that they person the astir proven interior enactment successful the league: Both guards, Pichon Wimbley and Caleb Cook, are all-conference contenders. A small big-play boost would beryllium large -- Dallas did mean 13.4 yards per catch, and incoming transportation Dylan Gary (West Georgia) averaged 16.9 successful FCS -- but determination are proven commodities present for coordinator Ryan Aplin.

The defence was excessively bend-don't-break for my taste, but it was besides the astir competent defence yet for Helton and coordinator Brandon Bailey: The Eagles' No. 91 antiaircraft SP+ ranking was their champion since 2020. Helton was evidently assured capable successful what he's returning that helium mostly aimed young successful the portal, bringing successful 5 redshirt freshmen oregon sophomores (all erstwhile high-three oregon four-star recruits) among 8 transfers. Senior linebacker Brendan Harrington (Appalachian State) should supply stability, but this year's occurrence volition beryllium driven chiefly by returnees similar 340-pounder Latrell Bullard up beforehand and nickel Ayden Jackson and corners Tracy Hill Jr. and Chance Gamble successful the back.

The upside present isn't enormous, but big-play prevention and an businesslike discourtesy should thrust different vessel play astatine worst. And if JMU so falters again, the Eagles' precocious level and coagulated veterans mightiness marque them the astir apt squad to instrumentality vantage successful the East division. We'll cognize what we request to cognize beauteous aboriginal on: Their unsmooth nonconference docket (at Fresno State, astatine USC, Jacksonville State) volition either bushed them down oregon decently hole them for a Sun Belt slate that begins with a travel to JMU.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fourth year, 23-18 overall)

2025 projection: 74th successful SP+, 7.5 mean wins (4.9 successful the Sun Belt)

After going 34-5 with 3 consecutive SP+ top-50 finishes from 2019 to 2021, Louisiana took a little measurement backward successful transitioning from Florida-bound Billy Napier to Michael Desormeaux. But aft back-to-back six-win seasons, Desormeaux's Ragin' Cajuns were acceptable to rotation again past fall. At least, they were until QB injuries wrecked their plans. They survived 1 wounded (to Ben Wooldridge) portion starting 10-2 and rising arsenic precocious arsenic 34th successful SP+, but a 2nd 1 (to Chandler Fields) spelled doom; successful their past 2 games, the Ragin' Cajuns were outscored by a combined 65-6 against Marshall and TCU.

It was a motion of assurance from Desormeaux that helium didn't load up connected transfers contempt losing astir 8 violative and 7 antiaircraft starters. In that regard, a batch of Louisiana's destiny volition beryllium determined by players who were besides successful a Louisiana azygous past season. Running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry (combined: 1,491 rushing yards and 13 TDs), close defender Jax Harrington (6-foot-4, 327 pounds), disruptive antiaircraft lineman Jordan Lawson (5.5 sacks astatine 293 pounds) and borderline rusher Cameron Whitfield (11.5 TFLs) are each all-Sun Belt contenders. But the Cajuns are mostly starting implicit successful some the receiving corps (which mislaid six of past year's apical seven) and the secondary (which mislaid past year's apical four). Sophomore information Kody Jackson seems similar a keeper, but transfers mightiness archer the communicative successful some the passing crippled and walk defense.

Among the 7 transfers Desormeaux brought successful are 3 erstwhile blue-chippers successful backmost Walker Howard (Ole Miss), receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (LSU) and cornerback Curley Reed III (Washington). Howard was a top-50 imaginable successful the 2022 class, Sampson was top-75 successful 2023, and some looked bully successful the spring. If they're difference-makers, and some Reed and Richmond transportation Trae Tomlinson are coagulated astatine corner, Louisiana instantly becomes the West part favourite again. But if they aren't, I'm not definite they person what they need.

Then again, possibly that's conscionable maine overreacting to past year's precocious violative collapse. Like Napier, Desormeaux has proven himself successful the recruiting department, and the Cajuns are each but guaranteed to person immoderate of the highest levels of athleticism and physicality successful the conference. The discourtesy has ranked 50th oregon amended successful violative SP+ 5 times successful six years, and portion the defence has slipped recently, it inactive has 3 top-50 finishes successful 5 seasons. The barroom present is high, and the operation of extent and blue-chip additions mightiness springiness them a accidental to wide it.

A mates of breaks distant from a run

Troy Trojans

Head coach: Gerad Parker (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 86th successful SP+, 6.6 mean wins (4.8 successful the Sun Belt)

With a operation of heavy and experienced enactment play and big-play potential, Troy won back-to-back Sun Belt titles successful 2022 and 2023; the Trojans ranked successful the antiaircraft SP+ apical 30 successful some seasons and roseate to 26th wide successful 2023. In 2 seasons, Jon Sumrall proved that, with the close acceptable of hands successful charge, this chip-on-shoulder programme tin perfectly shine.

Gerad Parker could inactive beryllium himself, but helium had precise small accidental successful 2024. Virtually each proven playmaker was gone, arsenic were astir of some lines. The discourtesy remained businesslike acknowledgment chiefly to backmost Matthew Caldwell, receiver Devonte Ross and moving backmost Damien Taylor, but the Trojans stopped making large plays and started allowing a ton of them, and astir thing worked during a 1-7 start.

The discourtesy clicked precocious arsenic Troy won 3 of its past four, but Caldwell (Texas), Ross (Penn State) and Taylor (Ole Miss) each departed for big-time schools. The Trojans person coagulated acquisition and fantabulous size successful the trenches: Left defender Eli Russ (6-foot-4, 313 pounds) volition anchor the violative line, tackle Julian Peterson (eight TFLs astatine 310 pounds) leads the antiaircraft front, and Parker added 5 power-conference transfers connected the 2 lines. They volition look the portion physically, and seasoned backmost Goose Crowder, who began 2024 arsenic the starter, should beryllium decent. But the accomplishment corps is drastically unproven. Three receiver transfers -- Rara Thomas (Georgia), Tray Taylor (Coastal Carolina) and Kristian Tate (Delta State) -- volition request to click, and erstwhile blue-chipper (and 2024 transfer) Mojo Dortch volition request to supply much than the 2 catches and minus-2 yards helium managed past season. The moving backmost corps, meanwhile, is astir wholly devoid of known quantities.

Between Peterson, linebacker Jordan Stringer and information Justin Powe, the spine of the defence should beryllium solid, and the tally defence should beryllium disruptive. But adjacent with Powe and a delightful nickel successful Devin Lafayette, Troy ranked conscionable 112th successful yards allowed per dropback and 126th successful completion complaint allowed past season. As with the receiving corps, transfers -- corners Kaleno Levine (Missouri State) and Jaquez White (Washburn), safeties Steven Sannieniola (Vanderbilt) and David Daniel-Sisavanh (Georgia) -- volition play a large relation successful propping up the walk defence and telling Troy's communicative successful 2025.

Texas State Bobcats

Head coach: G.J. Kinne (third year, 16-10 overall)

2025 projection: 93rd successful SP+, 6.1 mean wins (4.1 successful the Sun Belt)

It's weird that we've gotten this acold and haven't yet brought up the squad that finished 48th successful SP+ and astir bushed CFP-bound Arizona State past year, right? That astir apt tells you however overmuch of past year's Texas State squad is nary longer successful San Marcos. G.J. Kinne some inherited and defied perennially debased expectations astatine TXST successful each of the past 2 years, and he'll person a accidental to bash truthful again aft losing his violative coordinator (Mack Leftwich), starting backmost (Jordan McCloud), starring rusher (Ismail Mahdi), apical 3 receivers, 3 violative enactment starters and 14 of the 18 defenders with astatine slightest 250 snaps past season.

Kinne is simply a fearless transportation portal aficionado. He brought successful different 36 transfers this season, including 3 quarterbacks (Pitt's Nate Yarnell, SMU's Keldric Luster and erstwhile Auburn blue-chipper Holden Geriner), 8 accomplishment corps guys and 19 defenders. This year's transportation haul is simply a premix of semi-proven G5 oregon smaller-school guys -- moving backmost Greg Burrell (UNLV), slot receiver Tiaquelin Mims (Southern Miss), linebackers Ayden Jones (Prairie View A&M) and Cole Nilles (Bryant), corners Jaden Rios (East Texas A&M) and Malik Willis (Campbell), information Javis Mynatt (Wofford) -- and young and unproven power-conference transfers. There are immoderate erstwhile blue-chippers similar Geriner, receiver Mavin Anderson (Cal), antiaircraft tackle Bryce Carter (Virginia) and linebacker Terrence Cooks (TCU) successful the premix arsenic well.

Kinne has rapidly grown accustomed to asking members of a transient roster for contiguous contributions, but erstwhile it came clip to regenerate the Texas Tech-bound Leftwich, helium went with a acquainted face: Landon Keopple is simply a erstwhile small-school coordinator who joined up with Kinne astir 5 years agone and understands Kinne's modern dispersed arsenic good arsenic anyone.

A Kinne squad is going to people points, but antiaircraft betterment was a cardinal portion of past year's first-ever top-50 finish. Coordinator Dexter McCoil returns prima extremity Kalil Alexander (11 tally stops, 6.5 sacks), and country Trez Moore and safeties Ryan Nolan and Darius Jackson were decent rotation pieces past year, but astir of the 2025 lineup volition beryllium new. That's an accidental for betterment oregon regression. My conjecture is that the Bobcats defy projections erstwhile again, but if the defence falls off, that volition beryllium difficult.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Head coach: Tim Beck (third year, 14-12 overall)

2025 projection: 95th successful SP+, 6.0 mean wins (4.1 successful the Sun Belt)

The Coastal Carolina of the past mates of years -- with Tim Beck replacing Liberty-bound Jamey Chadwell successful 2023 -- has reminded maine a batch of the archetypal mates of Louisiana teams aft Billy Napier: good but distinctly underwhelming. After slipping to 74th successful SP+ successful Chadwell's last season, the Chanticleers held dependable astatine 68th successful 2023 but past play slipped to an injury-plagued 99th, with some the discourtesy and defence regressing. Lineup stableness was a immense impediment: Only 4 players started each 13 games.

Nothing feels definitively incorrect with the Chants, but you could spot the endowment coming unneurotic astatine Louisiana, and the Cajuns' discourtesy was consistently coagulated adjacent during the two-year lull. Things look a small little proven astatine Coastal: Neither portion has been consistent, backmost Ethan Vasko (Liberty) and moving backmost Braydon Bennett (Virginia Tech) transferred, and of 24 defenders who started astatine slightest 1 crippled (again: superior lineup instability here) lone six return.

But I emotion what Beck did successful the portal this offseason, particularly connected defense. He landed 5 players who made astatine slightest 5 TFLs astatine their past schoolhouse -- ends Noah Arinze (New Mexico State) and Jordan Mack (Seton Hill), linebackers Luke Murphy (Eastern Michigan) and Dontae Lunan (Albany) and information Jacob Robinson (Emory & Henry) -- and added 4 erstwhile blue-chippers arsenic well: extremity Darrion Henry-Young (Kentucky), information DeAndre Boykins (North Carolina) and corners Ja'Marion Wayne (Missouri) and Robby Washington (Miami). Throw successful decent holdovers successful tackle Sawyer Goram-Welch, linebacker Shane Bruce and large information Xamarion Gordon, and it feels similar there's a batch to enactment with here.

I'm little blown distant by the additions connected offense, though each of 2 quarterbacks, Emmett Brown (San Jose State) and MJ Morris (Maryland), seems to person decent potential. But quantity could make quality: Among 3 seasoned wideouts (Jameson Tucker, Cameron Wright and Bryson Graves), Ball State transportation Malcolm Gillie and 3 FCS transfers who combined for 2,151 yards past twelvemonth (Western Illinois' Eli Aragon, West Georgia's Karmello English and Furman's Colton Hinton), a beardown receiving corps should travel together. And up front, immoderate operation of six linemen with starting experience, 4 transfers and a JUCO should make a coagulated two-deep. Breakthrough coming? I can't committedness that, but it does consciousness similar the ingredients person added up.

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Head coach: Dowell Loggains (first year)

2025 projection: 98th successful SP+, 6.2 mean wins (4.0 successful the Sun Belt)

Appalachian State doesn't bash "losing seasons." Before 2024, the Mountaineers' past sub-.500 play came successful 2013, erstwhile they stumbled to 4-8 successful their last FCS run and their archetypal twelvemonth aft the legendary Jerry Moore's retirement. The clip earlier that? 1993! But things fell isolated for Shawn Clark past fall, and App State looked similar acold much of an also-ran than we're utilized to.

In an existential moment, schools often look wrong for the answer, asking idiosyncratic with heavy ties to rally the programme and prevention the day. App State went successful the different direction. Dowell Loggains spent the archetypal 16 years of his coaching vocation successful the NFL earlier moving to the assemblage ranks successful 2021. In 2023-24, helium served arsenic South Carolina's violative coordinator. In the twelvemonth earlier his arrival, the Gamecocks ranked 25th successful violative SP+; successful his 2 seasons there, they were 58th and 35th, respectively.

He tin recruit, though. Loggains' archetypal App State roster mislaid much than 40 players to the transportation portal, but among the much than 30 incoming transfers are a fig of erstwhile high-three oregon four-star recruits: quarterbacks AJ Swann (LSU) and JJ Kohl (Iowa State), moving backs Rashod Dubinion (Arkansas) and Khalifa Keith (Tennessee), receiver Davion Dozier (Arkansas), choky extremity Izayah Cummings (Louisville), linebacker Brayshawn Littlejohn (Missouri), country Emory Floyd (South Carolina), nickel Ja'Den McBurrows (Michigan) and others. Loggains besides dipped into the FCS good to onshore a fewer transfers, including 1,000-yard receiver Jaden Barnes (Austin Peay) and antiaircraft extremity Joseph Bakhole (East Tennessee).

Few connected the roster person really proven themselves astatine the FBS level. Offensive guards Jayden Ramsey and Griffin Scroggs and antiaircraft ends Thomas Davis and Shawn Collins are good, and the secondary is experienced if thing else. Swann, Kohl and freshman Noah Gillon evidently each had coagulated moments successful outpouring signifier -- comic however everyone's ever bully successful outpouring ball, huh? -- and nary one's going to uncertainty the diversion imaginable of this roster. The imaginable seems to springiness the Mountaineers a beauteous precocious ceiling, and the drastically unproven roster gives them a scary-low floor. This schoolhouse doesn't cognize however to grip losing due to the fact that it hasn't had to; that makes this conscionable astir the astir absorbing squad successful the league successful 2025.

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Head coach: Butch Jones (fifth year, 19-31 overall)

2025 projection: 100th successful SP+, 5.3 mean wins (3.6 successful the Sun Belt)

There was a clip erstwhile Arkansas State openly talked astir becoming the Boise State of the South. Hell, backmost successful 2012, arsenic the Red Wolves were finishing up a 2nd consecutive 10-win season, attendance was topping 31,000, astir BSU-esque levels. The Red Wolves averaged 9.3 wins portion hiring 3 consecutive single-year up-and-comers (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin), past settled into a 7.3-win mean successful 7 seasons nether Blake Anderson. When helium stumbled, ASU chose idiosyncratic connected the different broadside of the age-and-ambition line: erstwhile Tennessee caput manager Butch Jones, who has averaged 4.8 wins. Attendance has perked up arsenic the triumph full has improved, but it was inactive 28% little past twelvemonth than it had been a decennary earlier.

That makes capitalizing connected past year's eight-win run beauteous important. Fans were treated to 5 location wins, each successful melodramatic fashion; it was the benignant of play that tin rekindle interest. It was besides astir intolerable to replicate. SP+ fundamentally saw a four-win team that accidentally won 8 games, and past that squad mislaid astir 17 starters. Jones has to look up astatine a overmuch higher barroom portion rebuilding his roster again.

ASU's discourtesy is mostly perky nether coordinator Keith Heckendorf, and that shouldn't alteration with backmost Jaylen Raynor, 1,000-yard receiver Corey Rucker and moving backmost Ja'Quez Cross joined by amusive newcomers similar receiver Jaylen Bonelli (Wagner).

But the defence is wholly starting over. Just 1 starter returns (plus different from 2023), and Jones had to find a batch of portal answers. I bash deliberation helium recovered immoderate bully ones: End Demarcus Hendricks (Texas A&M-Kingsville) and tackle Cody Sigler (West Alabama) were double-digit TFL guys, and cornerback Joedrick Lewis (SE Missouri State) had a immense play successful 2023. The 2 superior returning pieces -- extremity Bryan Whitehead and linebacker Javante Mackey -- are disruptive too, and players similar tackle Gavin Ransaw (Coastal) and information AG McGhee (Marshall) should beryllium useful. ASU hasn't ranked successful the treble digits successful antiaircraft SP+ since 2018, but there's immoderate endowment here. Still, if past year's bully luck turns, it's going to beryllium awfully hard for ASU to attack 8 wins.

Old Dominion Monarchs

Head coach: Ricky Rahne (fifth year, 20-30 overall)

2025 projection: 103rd successful SP+, 4.8 mean wins (3.6 successful the Sun Belt)

Be it Bobby Wilder (2014-19) oregon Ricky Rahne (2021-present) starring the way, Old Dominion seems to person recovered its level.

Wilder: 31-42 (.425 triumph percentage), 106.5 mean SP+ ranking

Rahne: 20-30 (.400 triumph percentage), 103.5 mean SP+ ranking

Rahne's results person been much consistent, for amended (no 1-11 seasons similar Wilder) oregon worse (exactly 7 losses successful 3 of 4 years), but connected mean the merchandise has remained the same.

If you squint conscionable right, however, you mightiness spot hints of progress. ODU's No. 95 SP+ ranking past twelvemonth was its champion since 2016, and six of 7 losses were by a touchdown oregon little (including a season-opening 23-19 decision to South Carolina). The Monarchs are successful the apical fractional of the league successful returning accumulation too. The discourtesy improved contempt having to commencement 3 antithetic quarterbacks, and redshirt freshman Colton Joseph looked promising determination successful 8 starts. The violative enactment is experienced and physical, and acknowledgment to the instrumentality of all-world tackling instrumentality Jason Henderson -- spot illustration beneath -- aft a 2024 injury, the antiaircraft beforehand six returns 4 guys susceptible of double-digit TFLs: linebackers Henderson, Koa Naotala and Mario Thompson and antiaircraft extremity Kris Trinidad.

The Monarchs person rather a fewer proven entities, but advancement successful 2025 volition beryllium determined by the occurrence of 2 rebuilds: those of the accomplishment corps and secondary.

Last season, 8 ODU RBs and WRs touched the shot astatine slightest 20 times; 7 are gone. Running backmost Devin Roche is present the grizzly seasoned of the accomplishment corps contempt a) being a sophomore and b) producing conscionable 326 yards from scrimmage successful 2024. Rahne brought successful a brace of transfers (former Utah/Tulane WR Sidney Mbanasor and erstwhile Florida TE Dawson Johnson), but he's hoping helium struck golden successful the overlooked JUCO ranks, wherever helium grabbed 1 moving back, 4 WRs and a choky end.

It's a akin communicative successful the secondary. Seven of past year's apical 8 are gone, leaving part-time starting information Mario Easterly and a brace of perchance promising erstwhile reserves successful Jeremy Mack Jr. and Daevon Iles. Rahne again brought successful a brace of four-year transfers and a large load of 5 JUCOs (including onetime TCU signee Kollin Collier).

Marshall Thundering Herd

Head coach: Tony Gibson (first year)

2025 projection: 99th successful SP+, 5.7 mean wins (3.4 successful the Sun Belt)

The equilibrium of powerfulness doesn't usually alteration overmuch successful assemblage football, but it tin displacement successful a heartbeat successful the Sun Belt. Both the 2021 (Louisiana) and 2023 champions (Troy) mislaid their caput coaches and won 7 less games arsenic defending champs. And present the 2024 champion is starting implicit similar astir nary 1 ever has.

With Charles Huff's departure and the subordinate exodus that followed, Marshall is looking astatine the following:

• No passer connected the roster threw for a gait past season.

• No returnee rushed for a yard.

• Two returnees caught passes.

• Those liable for 49 of 65 O-line starts are gone.

• One of 8 antiaircraft linemen with astatine slightest 50 snaps returns.

• The full linebacker snaps returning is three.

• Two of 13 DBs with astatine slightest 30 snaps return.

This is mind-boggling turnover. In response, Marshall elected to thin heavy into its West Virginia roots. Glenville State postgraduate Tony Gibson, erstwhile antiaircraft coordinator astatine NC State and West Virginia (and, backmost astatine the crook of the century, West Virginia Tech), leads the way. Glenville State grad Rod Smith, erstwhile protege of existent and erstwhile WVU caput manager Rich Rodriguez, is the violative coordinator. Marshall postgraduate (and three-time erstwhile Marshall assistant) Shannon Morrison is the antiaircraft coordinator. I conjecture if your roster has nary roots whatsoever successful the area, you should find coaches who do.

Gibson & Co. did their champion to find acquisition wherever they could. In Zion Turner (UConn/Jacksonville State) and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Florida/Syracuse), they grabbed QBs with a combined 2,039 vocation passing yards. Running backs Jo'shon Barbie (McNeese State) and Tony Mathis Jr. (WVU/Houston) each person much than 1,000 vocation rushing yards. Among 10 receiver transfers, Adrian Norton (Akron) and Ben Turner (West Liberty) each had much than 800 yards past year. Three violative linemen and 9 defenders saw dense smaller-school action, and a fewer -- 6-foot-9 violative lineman Tyler McDuffie (Hampton), 320-pound antiaircraft tackle Naquan Crowder (California-PA), linebacker Jalen Marshall (Wofford), corners Boogie Trotter (Tennessee State) and Louikenzy Jules (Charleston), information Cam Smith (Jackson State) -- played astatine a peculiarly precocious level.

You tin find endowment connected this roster, but astir nary of it suited up successful Kelly greenish and achromatic past year. That makes the Thundering Herd astir intolerable to project.

Just looking for a way to 6-6

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Head coach: Bryant Vincent (second year, 5-7 overall)

2025 projection: 116th successful SP+, 4.4 mean wins (2.8 successful the Sun Belt)

In the caller House settlement, schools volition beryllium allowed to stock up to $20.5 cardinal successful gross with its athletes successful a fixed year. Louisiana-Monroe reports full gross of astir $20 cardinal successful a fixed year. This schoolhouse is wonderfully bull-headed successful its insistence connected playing FBS ball, which makes the rewards for doing truthful some uncommon and wonderful. The Warhawks' 2012 season, successful which they bushed a top-10 Arkansas squad connected the mode to 8 wins, is 1 of my favourite underdog campaigns of the 21st century. They haven't bowled since.

Going 5-7 past twelvemonth was a genuine victory, though it came with the disappointment of a 5-1 commencement and an 0-6 finish. Bryant Vincent helped to resurrect the UAB programme and brings superior underdog bona fides to the table; helium recovered comparative occurrence with a operation of a run-heavy discourtesy and the school's champion defence successful six years.

The defence returns 11 of the 17 players with astatine slightest 200 snaps, including stars successful extremity Kevontay Wells, OLB Billy Pullen and country David Godsey Jr. Vincent added 8 transfers and six JUCOs arsenic well, truthful extent should beryllium solid. On offense, sophomore backmost Aidan Armenta returns, but that lone means truthful overmuch due to the fact that ULM is going to tally the shot arsenic overmuch arsenic it's allowed to.

Ahmad Hardy transferred aft rushing for 1,351 yards arsenic a freshman, but his occurrence drew successful 4 moving backmost transfers -- including Richmond 1,300-yard rusher Zach Palmer-Smith -- and freshman D'Shaun Ford, 1 of the astir highly touted recruits ULM has seen. Three of six regular linemen return, successful summation to 1 transportation and 3 JUCOs. Last year's rushing-and-D look volition beryllium this year's rushing-and-D formula.

Georgia State Panthers

Head coach: Dell McGee (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 114th successful SP+, 3.7 mean wins (2.4 successful the Sun Belt)

All things considered, Dell McGee did 1 hellhole of a occupation past season. Hired aft outpouring signifier had already begun successful February 2024, helium navigated done monolithic post-spring turnover, past crafted a squad susceptible of upsetting Vanderbilt successful September and Texas State successful November. His Panthers weren't bully -- betwixt those upsets were 7 consecutive losses -- but they were occasionally spicy, and things ended up simply bad, not apocalyptic.

McGee is inactive searching for stableness successful Year 2. He needed 2 tries to onshore a antiaircraft coordinator -- helium went with Travis Pearson erstwhile Deron Wilson near for Florida aft 2 weeks -- and helium mislaid astir 40 much transfers. Depth could beryllium an issue, but there's upside. Quarterback Christian Veilleux and explosive receiver Ted Hurst some return, and McGee added a unchangeable of breathtaking RB transfers, led by Jordon Simmons (6.0 yards per transportation astatine Akron) and erstwhile blue-chippers Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Djay Braswell (South Carolina). The violative enactment returns lone 1 starter but welcomes six transfers and 2 JUCOs.

Thanks to Hurst and a coagulated secondary, GSU created bigger large plays than its opponents. But information D-Icey Hopkins is the lone regular antiaircraft backmost returning, and McGee signed an astir blimpish 3 transfers and 2 JUCOs. There's acquisition successful the beforehand six, but past year's champion portion is starting over.

McGee had to cognize what helium was getting himself into erstwhile taking the job, and portion he's inactive navigating done bumpy waters, his squad should flash immoderate upside if it tin past a unsmooth aboriginal agelong -- among their archetypal 5 games are trips to Ole Miss and Vandy and visits from Memphis and JMU -- with morale intact.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Head coach: Charles Huff (first year)

2025 projection: 128th successful SP+, 3.4 mean wins (2.1 successful the Sun Belt)

What happens erstwhile you graft one-quarter of past year's Sun Belt title roster onto the worst roster successful the conference? We're going to find out! Two years aft a semi-promising 7-6 campaign, everything fell isolated for Will Hall astatine Southern Miss past play arsenic the Golden Eagles plummeted to 1-11 and 133rd successful SP+. That Charles Huff truthful rapidly fled Marshall for USM mightiness talk to the unusual narration helium had with his erstwhile employer, but that's Southern Miss' gain. After signing much than 50 transfers successful summation to the mean freshman/JUCO signing class, Huff has astir wholly flipped the roster successful six months. The lone returning starters: receiver Davis Dalton, close tackle Greg Nunnery and antiaircraft tackle Brodarius Lewis. Hell, they're astir the lone returnees from the two-deep.

Former Marshall players -- particularly backmost Braylon Braxton, receivers Chuck Montgomery and Carl Chester and antiaircraft backs Josh Moten, Ahmere Foster and Ian Foster -- volition beryllium cardinal to aboriginal success, specified arsenic it exists. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson brought immoderate players from his caller Utah State caput coaching stint, too, astir notably receiver Grant Page and defender Aloali'i Maui. SP+ is mounting the barroom debased due to the fact that things similar "recent history" inactive thin to substance much often than not. But arsenic with Marshall, this is simply a total, unprojectable roster reset.

After winning betwixt six and 9 games each twelvemonth from 1994 to 2010, Southern Miss has been dramatically unstable for astir 15 years. Even if Huff steadies the ship, it's astir apt going to instrumentality him a bit. But if thing else, the Eagles should bask a spot much upside successful 2025.