Texas State, cryptic posts and the Pac-12's next move

In the cloak-and-dagger satellite of league realignment, clues to imaginable moves tin manifest themselves successful unusual places.

One emerged past week via a Twitter relationship with 313 followers promoting Texas State tailback Lincoln Pare for the Heisman Trophy.

The relationship included a representation -- cribbed from the Instagram communicative of the Texas State president -- of 2 beavers floating successful the San Marcos River. And it noted the imaginable realignment ramifications -- "Beavers successful the San Marcos River" -- by including a scratching chin emoji that hinted astatine the anticipation of Texas State joining Oregon State successful the Pac-12. (OSU's nickname is, of course, the Beavers and the San Marcos River runs done the bustling municipality southbound of Austin wherever Texas State resides.)

This apt would person faded into the inheritance of the Twitter-sphere if Texas State president Kelly Damphousse hadn't retweeted it connected June 10. That acceptable disconnected a spark successful the aftermath of a regularly scheduled Pac-12 gathering earlier successful the week erstwhile Texas State's candidacy was a absorption of discussion. (The Pac-12 declined remark for this story.)

So what's adjacent for the Pac-12? And what ripples could buzz done the kinetic realignment landscape? Here's what could beryllium coming successful the adjacent question of realignment, which is expected to hap extracurricular of the powerfulness conferences.

What's adjacent for the Pac-12?

Texas State is the dense favorite, per ESPN sources, to beryllium issued a ceremonial Pac-12 invitation. The league is inactive engaged with different schools, per sources, but Texas State has intelligibly emerged astatine the forefront of that group.

On July 1, the buyout for Texas State to permission the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 play volition emergence from $5 cardinal to $10 million. This is evidently a bigger motivator for Texas State than the Pac-12 but seemingly a important capable deadline to trigger action.

For the Pac-12 to bring successful a caller spouse successful a clip of fiscal uncertainty for the league, it would marque consciousness to connection Texas State anterior to July 1. After all, the Pac-12 needs an eighth shot subordinate for 2026, truthful they person their ain deadline looming.

In realignment, of course, thing is authoritative until it's signed. And thing is ceremonial until it's completed. So with Texas State and the Pac-12, sources said the champion mode to explicate the courtship is that the league is presently exploring making an connection successful the upcoming weeks.

Texas State has loomed for months arsenic the favourite to articulation the league and was prominently discussed successful the Pac-12's virtual gathering earlier this week. They person been the league's apical people for months and are expected to person voting support, arsenic the league's presidents are enamored with a foothold successful the authorities and Damphousse's leadership.

Texas State is booming arsenic a assemblage with an enrollment of much than 40,000, and it boasts a batch of tenets of shot potential, with a affluent section endowment basal and a rising young coach, G.J. Kinne, astatine the helm.

The league's presidents won't ballot connected Texas State until they are acceptable for the process to unfold successful rapid-fire succession. That's expected to travel earlier July 1. Texas State turned down a verbal connection from the Mountain West past fall, which diversion manager Don Coryell called "preliminary discussions with an funny conference."

Texas State, if the Pac-12 process unfolds arsenic expected, would beryllium the league's ninth subordinate wide and eighth shot member. Part of the feeling of inevitability of the invitation is tied to necessity. The league needs to turn to 8 shot members successful bid to suffice arsenic an FBS conference. (Gonzaga is the non-football member.) Internally astatine the Pac-12, Texas State has agelong been viewed arsenic the champion readily disposable enactment for that eighth spot.

The exit interest looms arsenic a important motivator, arsenic Texas State would articulation to commencement the 2026 season.

What would an connection look like? Well, Damphousse's societal media hinted astatine the expectations of that again. In April, helium tweeted astir his emotion of lobster bisque: "People sometimes deliberation that I'd beryllium blessed with fractional a vessel of soup. After all, a cupful of crockery is amended than nary crockery astatine all. But for me, it's a afloat vessel oregon nothing."

That enactment was successful effect to speculation that Texas State would spell to the Pac-12 for portion of a media share. It appears that Damphousse desires a afloat one.

It's a tenable anticipation considering Gonzaga volition beryllium a afloat subordinate of the league successful presumption of media rights, contempt not fielding a shot team. However, Gonzaga won't stock afloat successful different football-related revenue.

Where does the Pac-12 spell next?

The Pac-12 has flailed a spot since initially adding Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State past year. It failed to adhd UNLV and Air Force, which stayed successful the Mountain West for bigger slices of the pie, earlier adding Utah State.

The league's extremity was to adhd schools from the AAC, but Tulane had small involvement and an archetypal courtship to adhd Memphis deed a hard halt due to the fact that of finances. The exit interest to permission the AAC anterior to the 27-month people was estimated astir $25 million. The Pac-12 lone offered astir $2.5 cardinal to assistance with the buyout, which was rejected.

Where the Pac-12 goes beyond the eighth subordinate is heavy tied to immoderate clarity connected the league's fiscal future. The league's tv deal, with astatine slightest 3 partners, is expected to travel unneurotic successful the coming weeks. The timing of that deal, however, is not needfully tied to the looming announcement of an eighth football-playing school.

In April, the Pac-12 agreed to a deal with the CW, ESPN and CBS to amusement the 13 location shot games involving Oregon State and Washington State successful 2025. Those partnerships are not binding into 2026, but Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould said antecedently the league was looking for partners successful 2025 that expressed funny successful longer-term affiliations.

The finances from a caller TV woody are expected to beryllium beneath what the league's consultants pitched schools initially. In the aftermath of the archetypal flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected gross from a TV woody northbound of $10 cardinal per school, but conditions person changed.

That fig projects nether $10 cardinal for the caller woody starting successful 2026 but is inactive expected to beryllium much than those schools would person received had they remained successful the Mountain West. The different fiscal adaptable is related to the buyouts for the 5 MW schools.

In September, the Pac-12 filed a suit successful national tribunal challenging the legality of a "poaching penalty" included successful a shot scheduling statement it signed with the Mountain West successful December 2023. It was a measurement the Pac-12 took to mitigate oregon debar paying $55 cardinal to the Mountain West, which the second believes it is owed arsenic effect of its 5 schools leaving for the Pac-12. On apical of that, determination are idiosyncratic buyouts those schools beryllium the Mountain West, which could collectively outgo the schools much than $70 million.

Earlier this year, the Pac-12 -- on with Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State -- entered mediation with the Mountain West related to these fees, and it's unclear however productive that process has been. Wherever things nett retired volition apt origin into the conference's adjacent steps.

What's adjacent for Memphis?

In galore ways, Memphis looms arsenic the astir absorbing chess portion for aboriginal realignment extracurricular of the powerfulness leagues. It has a beardown hoops program, 11 consecutive years of vessel eligibility successful shot and important extracurricular fiscal enactment available.

There doesn't look to beryllium overmuch contiguous involvement successful Memphis from the powerfulness leagues, per sources. And that remains Memphis' eventual goal, to get to the different broadside of the river.

If Memphis can't fig retired a mode into a powerfulness league successful the adjacent fewer years - and there's nary imminent realignment moves expected astatine that level - there's apt to beryllium a further exploration of immoderate benignant of divided league affiliation.

Pac-12 officials person discussed, per sources, Memphis coming connected arsenic a football-only member. This thought was made nationalist successful reports successful the autumn by USA Today. The remainder of that diversion department's sports would spell to the Big East. This would let Memphis to maximize hoops gross against beardown contention and prevention the question of non-revenue sports going retired West.

The calculus successful Memphis' determination making volition beryllium connected myriad factors. That includes the magnitude of the media deals successful the Pac-12 and what happens with that league's mediation with the Mountain West.

Memphis made $11 cardinal all-in successful the AAC past year. That's a fig expected to beryllium up of what the Pac-12 volition wage its afloat members.

What would a operation look like? (The caller Big East woody is expected to dole retired astir $7 cardinal per schoolhouse annually, truthful the Memphis question would beryllium whether its added inventory could turn the pastry to support that fig whole.)

Memphis is specified a important portion to the clump of leagues extracurricular the powerfulness conferences, arsenic it's 1 of the AAC's doorbell cows. And a Memphis departure could make imaginable ripples, which is wherefore their upcoming moves are the linchpin of immoderate important upcoming movement.

The anticipation successful the Pac-12 is that nary question for Memphis to the Pac-12/Big East would beryllium expected to beryllium earnestly discussed until astatine slightest a 2027-28 commencement date.

What would beryllium the dominoes of the Pac-12 adding Texas State?

While sources accent there's been nary ceremonial invitation yet for Texas State, the determination has reached the constituent wherever the Sun Belt is preparing for a departure.

In the fall, erstwhile Texas State was flirting with different leagues, the Sun Belt had started to enactment unneurotic contingency plans. That included conversations, per sources, that established Louisiana Tech arsenic the favourite implicit respective different targets, including Western Kentucky, if Texas State were to leave. There would inactive request to beryllium much treatment and statesmanlike enactment earlier immoderate addition.

Louisiana Tech's determination immunodeficiency them here, arsenic the Sun Belt plays successful divisions successful shot and a Texas State departure would mean a vacancy successful the West.

The aboriginal entreaty of Louisiana Tech that's been talked about, per sources, is that it has the geographic determination to make earthy rivalries and casual question with ULM, Louisiana and Southern Miss. All are successful the aforesaid geographic footprint, and Louisiana Tech brings a beardown contented successful shot and softball, which are valued by the Sun Belt.

The Sun Belt's realignment strategy for years has been to double-down connected determination rivalries, and Louisiana Tech would autumn into that category.

Western Kentucky would beryllium charismatic due to the fact that of the program's beardown past successful shot and long-standing occurrence successful men's basketball. They'd person immoderate enactment from schools successful the East, but the aboriginal work is that Louisiana Tech is ahead.

Per the Conference USA bylaws, a departing schoolhouse would beryllium 2 years of gross organisation and request to bargain backmost the assistance of rights. For a schoolhouse to permission for 2026, the outgo projects to beryllium much than $5 million.

Conference USA officials are acrophobic capable astir the imaginable ripple to their level that they've begun strategizing down the scenes to regenerate a subordinate schoolhouse being poached.

If Louisiana Tech oregon different schoolhouse departed Conference USA and the league was to grow up from 10 members, the favourite for the spot successful Conference USA is Tarleton State University. That schoolhouse has shown a important fiscal committedness to athletics.