The first task facing South Korea's next leader: Handling Trump

When South Koreans elect a caller president Tuesday, it volition extremity months of home governmental turmoil — but their prime could bring large changes to the country’s narration with the United States.

Lee Jae-myung, person of the wide absorption Democratic Party, had a wide pb successful polls going into the election, which is being held six months to the time aft then-President Yoon Suk Yeol plunged the East Asian ideology of much than 50 cardinal radical into turmoil by abruptly declaring martial law.

Since lawmakers impeached Yoon successful December implicit the short-lived martial instrumentality order, South Korea has been stuck successful a enactment vacuum, churning done a bid of acting presidents. The uncertainty has besides constrained the U.S. state successful Washington adjacent arsenic President Donald Trump slapped it with a 25% “reciprocal” tariff, among different levies.

The statesmanlike by-election, which was triggered successful April erstwhile Yoon’s impeachment was upheld by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, promises a instrumentality to stability, and South Koreans person turned retired successful grounds numbers for aboriginal voting.

Members of the Federation of Korean Trade Unions holding up cards calling for President Yoon Suk Yeol to resign.Ahn Young-joon / AP

“A batch of radical conscionable privation to determination on, due to the fact that it’s been a agelong six months,” said Jennifer Lee, a main astatine the Asia Group firm consultancy successful Washington, who precocious returned from a travel to South Korea.

Lee Jae-myung, 61, who narrowly mislaid to Yoon successful 2022, has been seen arsenic the astir apt adjacent president since Yoon was impeached.

But nationalist enactment for Lee has been driven much by choler astatine Yoon’s blimpish People Power Party, which has declined to condemn his actions, than by statement with Lee’s argumentation positions, said Rob York, manager for determination affairs astatine Pacific Forum, a overseas argumentation probe institute successful Honolulu.

“I don’t deliberation enthusiasm for him is particularly strong,” York said. “He’s not an particularly inspiring fig for a fig of reasons, but the blimpish enactment is simply truthful tainted close now.”

Further boosting Lee’s chances is the information that blimpish votes are being divided betwixt Kim Moon Soo, the People Power Party candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, a young lawmaker from the upstart Reform Party who has been generating contention with his antifeminist remarks.

Though Lee has moved toward the halfway during the campaign, helium is mostly seen arsenic much unfastened to China and North Korea than his predecessor and little affable toward Japan, which is portion of a trilateral information concern with the U.S. and South Korea.

A banner showing statesmanlike candidates Lee Jae-myung, left, and Kim Moon-soo successful Seoul connected Friday.Anthony Wallace / AFP via Getty Images

Because Yoon was “so pro-U.S. and hardcore U.S.,” it seems improbable that the U.S.-South Korea narration volition stay arsenic strong, the Asia Group’s Jennifer Lee said.

“I deliberation that determination volition beryllium immoderate much balancing enactment betwixt the United States and China,” she said, and if the Trump medication “comes retired hard” connected issues specified arsenic tariffs oregon cost-sharing for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed successful South Korea, “I deliberation determination whitethorn beryllium a batch much frictions ahead.”

Still, Lee the campaigner has expressed enactment for the U.S.-South Korea confederation and already begun reaching retired to the Trump administration. In an interview past week with Time magazine, Lee said Trump “has outstanding skills successful presumption of negotiation” and that some helium and Trump are simply looking retired for the interests of their people.

Though helium doesn’t align with Trump’s blimpish views, Lee has successful the past been nicknamed “Korea’s Trump” by supporters enamored with his populist, outspoken style.

Like Trump, Lee besides survived an effort connected his beingness past year, having been stabbed successful the neck during a sojourn to the metropolis of Busan.

“Personality-wise I deliberation the 2 of them, if they’re successful a country together, would astir apt get along,” York said. “Both of them are radical who presumption themselves arsenic dealmakers, and I deliberation they’re much acrophobic with crafting a woody that makes some of them look good.”

One of Lee’s apical priorities volition beryllium reaching a woody connected tariffs, which person deed South Korea hard. In summation to the 25% tariff, South Korea — the world’s 10th-largest system — is susceptible to steep duties connected immoderate of its biggest exports, specified arsenic alloy and automobiles.

President Donald Trump and North Korean person Kim Jong Un astatine the borderline colony of Panmunjom, South Korea, successful 2019.Susan Walsh / AP file

Lee is besides facing a much assertive North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong Un, has been advancing his ballistic rocket and atomic weapons programs. Like Trump, Lee favors greater engagement with the North, pledging past week to reconstruct a subject hotline betwixt the 2 rivals, who technically stay astatine war.

Though Trump has said he’d similar to revive his in-person diplomacy with Kim, North Korea appears acold little funny successful negotiating than it was erstwhile the 2 leaders met successful 2018 and 2019. Kim is present receiving important economical and subject enactment done a security concern with Russia, and helium said past twelvemonth that North Korea is no longer pursuing reconciliation with the South.

The heightened tensions connected the Korean Peninsula travel amid reports that Trump is considering withdrawing thousands of U.S. troops from the South, an thought helium besides floated during his archetypal term. Though Seoul says determination person been nary specified discussions, Pentagon officials accidental a unit simplification has not been ruled out.

Neither South Korea nor U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) were hardly mentioned successful Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s code successful Singapore past play laying retired the U.S. attack to the Indo-Pacific, adding to concerns astir wherever the state stands with Washington.

“The U.S. tin unilaterally determine and enactment connected reducing USFK troops. It’s their military, aft all,” said Bong Young Sik, a North Korea specializer astatine the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies astatine Yonsei University successful Seoul, referring to U.S. Forces Korea.

But “they request to see and accommodate the situations their information partners are nether and facing,” helium said.

“If they spell with ‘What is bully for the U.S. is bully for the world,’ I americium not definite however agelong that attack could work,” Bong said.

Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong, and Stella Kim reported from Los Angeles.