The numbers behind the top teams, best matchups and championship odds

There's nary going backmost now. The College Football Playoff's expanded 12-team format made its debut past season, reshaping the postseason arsenic we knew it and showing conscionable however brutal the way to a nationalist title tin be. Add successful a flurry of league realignments (with the grueling question schedules they created), the ever-increasing power of the transportation portal and what mightiness beryllium the dawn of an wholly caller fiscal model underpinning the sport, and assemblage shot could beryllium changing faster -- and much dramatically -- than astatine immoderate constituent successful its history.

As portion of our efforts to support way of these seismic changes, we are relaunching our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 play this week. Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is simply a predictive standing strategy that estimates each FBS team's spot (in points per crippled comparative to the nationalist average) connected offense, defence and peculiar teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting endowment and different unit changes. Those numbers are past plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to way each team's likelihood of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing done to the nationalist title.

The preseason forecast features plentifulness of acquainted teams astatine the top, but besides plentifulness of candidates to clang the playoff party. Let's statesman our circuit of the information by looking astatine the teams astir apt to triumph the 2025 championship.

The apical of the database is dominated by SEC teams -- 11 of the apical 19 hail from the conference, including the 2 astir apt champions successful Texas and Georgia (and 3 of the apical four, if you see Alabama).

A twelvemonth aft Ohio State and the Big Ten won the archetypal 12-team playoff rubric -- with lone 3 SEC squads making the tract -- the FPI exemplary expects a nation-high 4.6 playoff teams to hail from the league (nearly doubly arsenic galore from immoderate other) with a 61% accidental that the SEC produces the eventual champion.

SEC and Big Ten stay connected top

If not an SEC team, past the title volition astir apt spell to different acquainted powerfulness league program, with a trio of Big Ten teams -- Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon -- checking successful adjacent connected the likelihood list, a twelvemonth aft each went to the CFP quarterfinals (or beyond). A precocious stock of returning accumulation could besides person manager Dabo Swinney and Clemson representing the ACC successful the playoff again -- possibly making it past the the archetypal circular this time.

And if we're looking for somewhat refreshed entries aft down seasons, Auburn, Michigan and Oklahoma are each among the 17 astir apt champions aft each finished extracurricular the apical 25 successful the FPI past season. All 3 made large moves successful the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought successful a top-10 transportation people headlined by erstwhile Sooners backmost Jackson Arnold; Michigan brought successful a large recruiting people and a fewer apical transfers; and Oklahoma revamped its violative core, with prized backmost John Mateer astatine the helm -- positive its returning accumulation different -- helping vault the Sooners backmost into the nationalist picture.

Playoff likelihood for the Group of 5

As always, the Group of 5 is besides an important portion of the playoff puzzle, successful nary tiny portion due to the fact that of its guaranteed spot successful the bracket (reserved for the fifth-highest ranked league champion). Here are the non-power league teams with the highest accidental to marque the playoff successful the FPI model.

Even aft losing record-setting moving backmost Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos stay the astir apt Group of 5 squad to marque the playoff -- though Tulane (despite losing backmost Darian Mensah and moving backmost Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming disconnected an 11-win season, though backmost Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren't acold behind. With respective contenders bunched unneurotic and nary wide juggernaut, the G5 contention for a playoff spot is thing to support a adjacent oculus connected -- including its ripple effects connected the remainder of the bracket.

Next, let's look astatine the projected apical units connected each broadside of the shot successful 2025, according to the FPI.

If we privation different illustration of however ascendant the champion teams are, the apical 4 projected violative teams by the FPI -- Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State -- are besides the apical 4 projected antiaircraft teams, with Alabama and Texas rising 10 spots apiece from 2024 connected the violative side.

That benignant of equilibrium connected some sides of the shot is what separates this year's apical contenders from the pack, particularly successful a postseason format that requires versatility implicit 3 oregon 4 high-stakes playoff games. The remainder of the apical 20 connected some sides besides incorporate immoderate of the biggest offseason movers successful those portion rankings -- specified arsenic Oregon (up 11 spots connected defense), Florida (up 27 spots connected offense), Clemson (up 14 spots connected defense), South Carolina (up 24 spots connected offense) and Texas A&M and Auburn (who are up double-digit spots connected some sides).

Biggest risers and fallers

Speaking of those offseason changes, let's look astatine the programs that person gained (or lost) the astir crushed wide successful the FPI entering 2025.

FAU is projected to amended by astatine slightest 25 ranking slots connected offense, defence and peculiar teams aft adding rather a fewer transfers -- including ex-Western Kentucky backmost Caden Veltkamp -- up of manager Zach Kittley's archetypal play successful Boca Raton. Among powerfulness league teams, Florida State is looking to bounce backmost from past season's nightmare with the assistance of a large offseason successful the portal, headlined by the summation of erstwhile USC wide receiver Duce Robinson, portion ACC rival, Stanford, has the nation's 13th-highest stock of accumulation returning for 2025.

At the different end, Army has mislaid astir fractional of its accumulation from past season's awesome 12-2 team, including apical rusher Kanye Udoh and sack person Elo Modozie; the FPI predicts regression volition deed the Knights hard.

And successful presumption of powerfulness teams who had competitory FPI ratings a twelvemonth ago, Louisville is projected to driblet from No. 12 to 41 aft bidding farewell to backmost Tyler Shough, wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks, starting violative tackle Monroe Mills, sack person Ashton Gillotte and each of its 3 starring antiaircraft backs successful interceptions. Similarly, Colorado sustained dense offseason losses, and regression mightiness besides travel for Indiana and Iowa State aft a brace of outstanding 11-win seasons.

(Where did the apical transportation portal teams onshore connected the astir improved list? In summation to FSU and Auburn, Nebraska is up 13 spots to No. 25, Texas Tech roseate 9 spots to No. 35 and Texas A&M was up 7 slots to No. 8. But support an oculus connected Ole Miss, which was among the much progressive portal teams but fell 8 spots successful the FPI rankings anyhow without backmost Jaxson Dart.)

Best matchups successful 2025?

Finally, let's adjacent by circling the biggest matchups of the 2025 play connected our assemblage shot calendars. According to the FPI's projected ratings for some teams, these are the astir anticipated games of the play -- matchups successful which each squad ranks highly, helping to make a precocious combined matchup prime connected ESPN Analytics' 0-100 scale:

We'll get 1 of the champion games of the play practically close away, with Week 1 providing Texas-Ohio State -- a conflict of top-four preseason FPI teams -- connected Saturday, Aug. 30. That aforesaid day, we'll besides get LSU-Clemson, and the adjacent day, we'll ticker Notre Dame question to Miami to look the Hurricanes successful a top-10 FPI matchup.

That sets the code for a regular play that volition diagnostic astatine slightest 1 matchup rated 90 oregon higher successful the FPI matchup prime metric astir each week. But the champion week by that metric -- with 3 games rated 90 oregon higher and 5 rated 85 oregon higher -- is Week 14, with Ohio State-Michigan, Auburn-Alabama and each of the different accustomed late-season rivalry games. In addition, 3 different weeks -- Week 5, Week 7 and Week 10 -- volition transportation 5 games each with a matchup standing of 85 oregon higher.

That's a loaded calendar, and it reflects however the meaning of each assemblage shot Saturday is changing. Under the aged system, 1 atrocious week could doom a contender. Now, teams tin spend a stumble ... but the trade-off is that they besides request to beryllium themselves implicit much games against top-tier teams.

Regular-season showdowns inactive matter, excessively -- particularly for seeding, byes and home-field advantage. But there's besides much country for redemption, which we saw embodied by some title crippled combatant's past season. And done it all, the FPI gives america a roadmap to assistance navigate what's shaping up to beryllium different chaotic and transformative play of assemblage football.