Transfer trends: Portugal-to-Prem pipeline, Italy is Europe's retirement home

The biggest determination of this summertime transportation model mightiness beryllium a prolific Bundesliga attacker going to the Premier League. That never works out, right? (Except for each the times it has.)

In their oft-updated book, "Soccernomics," authors Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski laid retired a beauteous beardown statistical case: Though squad wages are highly predictive of squad success, the magnitude teams walk successful the transportation marketplace has astir nary correlation to success. It's a maddening happening to realize, considering however overmuch clip we walk obsessing implicit the transportation market.

And yet, it makes sense, doesn't it?

In the past 7 years, Kylian Mbappé has made 2 transfers: 1 outgo a transportation interest of €180 million, and the different outgo €0. But his wages were a much accordant indicator of his value. Beyond that, the players who rake successful the biggest fees successful a fixed twelvemonth thin to person varying degrees of performance. Paris Saint-Germain astir apt don't regret a penny of the €70 cardinal they paid for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia successful January, but Manchester United are hoping the assemblage remains retired connected their €62 cardinal Leny Yoro determination for rather a while.

The occurrence complaint of big-money transfers is precise mixed. Ousmane Dembélé to Barcelona for €135 cardinal worked retired horribly; Dembélé to PSG for €50 cardinal worked retired beautifully. Neymar to PSG for €222 cardinal was coagulated (if inactive astir apt disappointing); Neymar to Al Hilal for €90 cardinal was horrible.

The mathematics is the math, but surely we tin larn something from big-money transfers, right?

In pursuit of immoderate answers, I created a information set: Using the numbers from Transfermarkt, I looked astatine the 200 astir costly transfers of each play for the past decennary -- 2,000 deals. What could beryllium expected connected mean from a axenic minutes perspective? Did players moving from 1 league to different supply other value?

To fig retired the occurrence of a transfer, you person to get truly analyzable (create a subordinate ratings strategy based connected cardinal statistical indicators for each position) oregon support things truly elemental (how galore minutes did they play?). I went with the latter. If you wage bully wealth for a caller player, you privation to get them connected the field.

Looking astatine players moving to teams wrong Europe's Big Five leagues, players successful this information acceptable were an mean of 23.6 years aged erstwhile they moved, with an mean transportation interest of €23.6 million. They played an mean of 57.3% of league minutes with their nine successful the archetypal year, 41.9% successful the 2nd twelvemonth aft the transportation and 28.4% successful the third. If you privation to make a weighted mean of sorts -- with, say, 50% of the value going to first-year minutes, 33% to second-year minutes and 17% to third-year minutes -- that works retired to astir 47.4% of applicable minutes. So, that's wherever we're mounting the bar.

Let's spot what we tin larn from these 2,000 subordinate moves.

If you privation to marque it to the Premier League, spell to Portugal

Of the players successful the sample, 699 moved to Premier League clubs. Their weighted mean for percent of minutes played was 47.5% -- astir the aforesaid arsenic the wide sample. Though coming from leagues specified arsenic the Netherlands' Eredivisie (45.8%) oregon France's Ligue 1 (47.0%) didn't ever construe to success, players coming from 3 leagues seemed much apt to nutrient much bang for the buck: Spain's LaLiga (53.7%), the Premier League (53.8%) and, astir of all, Portugal's Primeira Liga (57.5%).

Be it a immense signing specified arsenic Enzo Fernández moving from Benfica to Chelsea for €121 million, oregon 1 of the galore much financially dependable moves Wolverhampton Wanderers person made successful the past decennary (Benfica's Raúl Jiménez for €38 million, Sporting CP's Rui Patrício for €18 million, FC Porto's Willy Boly for €12 million), moving from Portugal to England tends to enactment retired beauteous well. Even costly players who produced occasionally frustrating results, specified arsenic Fernández oregon Darwin Núñez (Benfica to Liverpool for €85 cardinal successful 2022-23), person seen dense minutes. You're getting something for your investment.

In this regard, you could marque a beauteous coagulated lawsuit that either Benfica oregon Sporting is the astir well-run nine successful the world. Despite completing astatine slightest 1 big-money outgoing transportation conscionable astir each play -- João Neves to PSG (€59.9 million) successful 2024-25, Gonçalo Ramos to PSG (€65 million) successful 2023-24, Fernández to Chelsea (€121 million) and Núñez to Liverpool (€85 million) successful 2022-23, Rúben Dias to Manchester City (€71.6 million) successful 2020-21, João Félix to Atlético Madrid (€127.2 million) successful 2019-20 -- Benfica person reached astatine slightest the UEFA Champions League circular of 16 successful 3 of the past 4 seasons, and made back-to-back quarterfinals successful 2022 and 2023.

Sporting, meanwhile, person won 3 league titles successful the past 5 seasons. They don't person rather the aforesaid database of splashy exports (or grounds of Champions League success) arsenic Benfica oregon Porto -- since Bruno Fernandes near for €65 cardinal successful 2019-20, they've facilitated lone 2 big-player exits: Matheus Nunes to Wolves for €47.4 cardinal successful 2022-23 and Pedro Porro to Tottenham Hotspur for €40 cardinal successful 2023-24.

We've grown accustomed to the Portugal-to-England (or Paris) pipeline, and we're utilized to the power that Portuguese ace cause Jorge Mendes has connected definite clubs. But it's absorbing to deliberation astir what mightiness hap to the richest league successful the satellite if clubs that person go important providers of endowment made shaky moves and mislaid their mode a bit. What if Benfica oregon Sporting failed to nutrient ready-made players for a mates of seasons? What if Porto's shaky 2024-25 run started a trend?

It's not thing they've had to interest astir for a while, but we mightiness beryllium seeing the interaction of a "feeder nine stops feeding clubs" concern successful the Bundesliga.

Austria's RB Salzburg had an unthinkable tally of success, winning 10 consecutive league titles from 2013-14 to 2022-23 portion providing a dependable watercourse of endowment to mostly German clubs. Among them: Naby Keïta (€29.8 cardinal to RB Leipzig successful 2016-17), Dayot Upamecano (€18.5 cardinal to RB Leipzig successful 2016-17), Erling Haaland (€20 cardinal to Borussia Dortmund successful 2019-20), Stefan Lainer (€12.5 cardinal to Borussia Monchengladbach successful 2019-20), Dominik Szoboszlai (€36 cardinal to RB Leipzig successful 2020-21), Karim Adeyemi (€30 cardinal to Borussia Dortmund successful 2022-23) and Benjamin Sesko (€24 cardinal to RB Leipzig successful 2023-24). Leaving speech the concerns and effects of multiclub ownership -- and however galore Salzburg stars made Leipzig their adjacent spot of residence -- Salzburg's occurrence worked retired good for Salzburg and higher-end teams successful the German Bundesliga.

However, the merchandise has begun to slip: Salzburg fell to 2nd successful the Austrian Bundesliga successful 2023-24, past 3rd successful 2024-25, and Sesko aside, caller erstwhile Salzburg players specified arsenic Noah Okafor and Strahinja Pavlovic (both of whom moved to AC Milan) haven't produced astatine the aforesaid level, either. Sesko conscionable had a frustrating season, and Leipzig suffered their worst play since their promotion to the Bundesliga successful 2016. Premier League teams (Wolves successful particular) amended anticipation Benfica oregon Porto don't endure akin droughts.

The golden unreserved for Brazil's adjacent large subordinate usually doesn't wage off

Though definite clubs person seen monolithic occurrence successful processing younger players and past moving them connected to mega-clubs -- Borussia Dortmund travel to mind, arsenic bash the clubs mentioned successful the erstwhile conception -- we've besides seen an end-around of sorts successful caller years, with the mega-clubs and others attempting to skip the airy heavyweight feeder clubs and spell consecutive to the source.

On 4 antithetic occasions since 2018, Real Madrid person acquired an 18-year-old subordinate from Brazil's Serie A: Flamengo's Vinícius Júnior (€45 million) successful 2018-19, Santos' Rodrygo (€45 million) successful 2019-20, Flamengo's Reinier (€30 million) successful 2019-20 and Palmeiras' Endrick (€47.5 million) successful 2024-25. Vini Jr. and Rodrygo made this strategy worthwhile -- the transportation interest for each would person astatine slightest doubled had these players gone archetypal to Benfica oregon determination comparable -- and different players specified arsenic Gabriel Jesus (Palmeiras to Manchester City for €32 cardinal astatine property 19) and Lucas Beraldo (São Paulo to PSG for €20 cardinal astatine property 20) person been worthy their transportation fees.

Reinier's journey, however, hasn't been arsenic successful: He has gone connected indebtedness for 5 consecutive seasons and hasn't played for Real Madrid. Vitor Roque, meanwhile, moved to Barcelona for €30 cardinal successful January 2024, and the nine bailed connected him 13 months later. (He's astatine Palmeiras now.) It volition beryllium rather a portion earlier we find retired if Endrick, oregon Vitor Reis (€37 cardinal to Manchester City past summer), oregon Luis Guilherme (€23 cardinal to West Ham United successful 2024-25) was worthy the transportation fees. Players specified arsenic Reinier, Roque and Gabriel Barbosa (€29.5 cardinal to Inter Milan successful 2016-17) surely weren't.

Of the 2,000 players successful this sample, 43 moved from a Brazilian club. Their mean property (20.2) was acold little than that of leagues with akin subordinate export totals -- players from the Netherlands' Eredivisie averaged 23.0 years, Belgium's Jupiler Pro League 21.4 -- and determination was precise small mean payoff. These players averaged conscionable 34.0% of minutes for their caller nine successful Year 1, past 26% successful Year 2 and 15% successful Year 3. Weighted average: conscionable 28.3% of minutes. You cognize successful beforehand that these are astir apt intended to beryllium much semipermanent investments, but successful a short-term sport, the obstacles to occurrence successful this respect are numerous.

Note to English players: Seeing the satellite is good!

In "Soccernomics," Kuper and Szymanski wrote, "Many nationalist teams present dwell chiefly of players who emigrated young to play abroad. That's existent adjacent of a state arsenic affluent arsenic France. [...] But nary of that is existent for British (i.e., not conscionable English) players. When FIFA TMS analyzed planetary transfers of antithetic nationalities from 2011 to 2013, it recovered that lone 26 percent of transfers involving British players were to a nine extracurricular Britain. The lone 2 countries successful the satellite with much insular transportation histories successful that play were Myanmar and Nepal."

When the astir lucrative league successful the satellite is successful your backyard, moving overseas isn't logical. English players don't person to spell elsewhere to find high-level competition. But those who effort it don't look to regret it.

Of the 2,000 players successful this sample, determination were 12 cases of a British subordinate leaving England. You could accidental that each 12 worked retired beauteous well.

• Two players, Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham, went to Borussia Dortmund arsenic teenagers and thrived immediately.
• Two more, Kieran Trippier and Conor Gallagher, went to Atlético Madrid arsenic comparative veterans (Trippier was 28, Gallagher 24) and enjoyed coagulated success.
• Four moved to Serie A -- Tammy Abraham (Chelsea) and Chris Smalling (Manchester United) to AS Roma, Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Chelsea) and Fikayo Tomori (Chelsea) to AC Milan -- and got arsenic galore minutes arsenic they wanted.
• Harry Kane near Tottenham for Bayern Munich successful hunt of trophies. He succeeded successful that respect (and, ohio yeah, has scored 62 league goals successful 2 seasons).
• Mason Greenwood near Manchester United for Marseille past summer, and though it was a polarizing determination for off-the-pitch reasons, his 21 league goals made it an evident occurrence connected the pitch.
• Jordan Henderson (Liverpool to Al Ettifaq) and Ivan Toney (Brentford to Al Ahli) moved to Saudi Arabia for large money; Henderson rapidly near for Ajax, but helium inactive generated 4 assists successful 17 starts for Al Ettifaq, portion Toney scored 23 goals successful 30 appearances this season.

Not adjacent including Toney and Henderson -- and besides not including Scotland's Scott McTominay, who was a fabulous occurrence successful his archetypal play aft moving from Manchester United to Napoli -- the different 10 players averaged 75.7% of minutes played successful Year 1, 64.9% successful Year 2 and 44.7% successful Year 3. That's a whopping 66.9% weighted average. A subordinate similar Kane was virtually guaranteed to succeed, but different players searching for a caller commencement oregon much playing clip recovered what they were seeking.

Serie A: European football's status home

Serie A is mostly regarded arsenic a league with older players connected average, and a much pragmatic and tactical attack connected the pitch. Napoli (11 regulars aged 28 oregon older) and Inter Milan (four starters aged 31 oregon older successful the Champions League final) conscionable dueled for the Scudetto, lending immoderate accuracy to this assumption.

From this 2,000-player sample, determination are 31 instances of players moving to Serie A from Spain and 26 from England. The LaLiga transfers' mean property was 25.1, and the Premier League transfers averaged 26.3 years old. Italian clubs tended to get what they were looking for from these players: an mean of 66.0% of league minutes successful Year 1 and an wide weighted mean of 55.5% (LaLiga transfers) and 54.5% (Premier League transfers), respectively.

Both large and tiny moves successful this absorption person succeeded. Cristiano Ronaldo played astir each infinitesimal for Juventus for 3 years aft his €117 cardinal determination from Real Madrid; Juventus didn't get better due to the fact that of this move, but helium enactment successful the work. Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku has succeeded doubly portion moving successful this direction, archetypal from Manchester United to Inter for €74 cardinal successful 2019-20, past from Chelsea to Napoli for €30 cardinal successful 2024-25. In some instances, helium near disappointing situations and won a Scudetto. So, too, did McTominay, who outgo Napoli €30.5 cardinal past summer.

Discount moves person worked, too. It outgo Roma conscionable €11 cardinal to instrumentality 29-year aged Edin Džeko disconnected Manchester City's hands successful 2016-17, and helium gave them 8 solid-to-excellent seasons; much recently, discounted moves specified arsenic Atalanta's acquisition of Davide Zappacosta (from Chelsea for €7 million) successful 2021-22 and Napoli's acquisition of Frank Anguissa (from Fulham for €16 million) successful 2022-23 person worked retired beautifully. Younger players specified arsenic Moise Kean (Everton to Juventus) and immoderate feline named Mohamed Salah (Chelsea to Roma) person besides turned retired to beryllium worthy the transportation fees.

Not each determination works out, though. Juventus paid €51.5 cardinal for Aston Villa's Douglas Luiz past summertime and got 3 league starts and a clump of injuries, and Atalanta are inactive waiting for the €29.1 cardinal they paid for El Bilal Toure (from Almeria successful 2023-24) to wage off. But this pipeline works much often than a batch of others.

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Laurens: I don't recognize wherefore AC Milan privation Modric

Julien Laurens reacts to Luka Modric's imaginable escaped transportation to AC Milan.

Where the FC 100 came from

Let's wrapper up this experimentation by turning our attraction successful the other direction. Instead of looking astatine which transfers succeed, let's look astatine wherever successes came from. Here's immoderate basal transportation information for the players connected this year's ESPN FC 100 list.

Average property astatine acquisition/debut: 22.7. Of the 100 players, 41 had either been acquired by their existent nine oregon made their debut (if homegrown) by the property of 21. Eight were homegrown, and 13 others required a transportation interest of €16 cardinal oregon less. Others, specified arsenic Bellingham, Haaland and Neves, outgo rather a spot adjacent astatine specified a young age.

Only 7 players from the FC 100 -- Isco (Real Betis), Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF), Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest), Cristiano Ronaldo (Al Nassr), Yann Sommer (Inter Milan) and Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest) -- were acquired by their existent teams astatine property 31 oregon older. It astir apt isn't a coincidence that 5 of those 7 are either all-time large extremity scorers (Lewandowski, Messi, Ronaldo) oregon goalkeepers (Selz, Sommer).

Average transportation fee: €32.6 million. As you would expect, the scope is immense. Homegrown players specified arsenic Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold, Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, Atlético Madrid's Giuliano Simeone, Athletic Club's Nico Williams and Unai Simón and Barcelona's Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsí and Alejandro Balde outgo virtually thing successful transportation fees. Meanwhile, 26 of the 100 players required a transportation interest of €50 cardinal oregon more, led by Arsenal's Declan Rice (€116 million), Real Madrid's Bellingham (€113 million) and Bayern's Kane (€95 million).

The median worth of the players connected the list: €30 million, oregon precisely what Arsenal paid for William Saliba and Napoli paid for Fabián Ruiz.

Average years with existent club: 3.9. We'll spell with either erstwhile an imported subordinate was acquired oregon a homegrown subordinate made his debut. Of the 100 players, 15 played their archetypal play for their existent clubs successful 2024-25, and different 25 were successful their 2nd season. With the axenic measurement of moves by apical clubs, that astir apt sounds astir right, though it's conscionable arsenic noteworthy that 34 players were connected astatine slightest their 5th seasons for their clubs. The median: 3 years.

On the precocious end: PSG's Marquinhos (acquired from Roma for €31.4 cardinal astatine property 19 successful 2023-14), Atlético's Jan Oblak (from Benfica for €16 cardinal astatine 21 successful 2014-15) and Bayern's Joshua Kimmich (from RB Leipzig for €8.5 cardinal astatine 20 successful 2015-16). Virtually everyone other connected PSG's breakthrough Champions League victor this play moved to Paris wrong the past 4 years, including first-year wonders Désiré Doué, Neves and Kvaratshkelia. But Marquinhos has been determination for astir the full Qatar Sports Investments experiment.