Trump's Golden Dome missile defense system revives Reagan's nuclear shield dream

On May 20, President Donald Trump launched the Golden Dome rocket defence initiative. I was successful assemblage erstwhile President Ronald Reagan launched the Strategic Defense Initiative—initially mocked by its opponents arsenic "Star Wars."

Trump named Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein arsenic the Golden Dome project’s leader, a archer that the strategy volition beryllium chiefly space-based.

Technology successful 2 areas has altered the equation for rocket defense, apt making defending against atomic missiles—even hypersonic ones, little costly than gathering the offensive atomic weapons. This was not the lawsuit erstwhile Reagan announced SDI successful 1983. The Great Communicator said past that, "What if escaped radical could unrecorded unafraid successful the cognition that their information did not remainder upon the menace of instant U.S. retaliation to deter a Soviet attack, that we could intercept and destruct strategical ballistic missiles earlier they reached our ain ungraded oregon that of our allies? … this is simply a formidable, method task … volition instrumentality years, astir apt decades of effort connected galore fronts... But isn’t it worthy each concern indispensable to escaped the satellite from the menace of atomic war? We cognize it is."

CHINA ACCUSES US OF ‘TURNING SPACE INTO A ‘WARZONE’ WITH TRUMP’S GOLDEN DOME MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT

The menace of atomic warfare that Reagan was disquieted astir and thought immoral, was that of the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, oregon MAD. MAD held that a atomic equilibrium of panic could support the peace—that arsenic agelong arsenic atomic rivals knew that, adjacent if they struck first, the different broadside could inactive inflict monolithic harm successful return.

Now, 42 years later, the outgo to motorboat objects into debased world orbit has gone from astir $53,000 per lb to $3,344 per lb for SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and $147 per lb for Starship. This is simply a simplification successful the outgo to orbit of 360-fold with Elon Musk shooting for $22 per lb ($10 per kilogram)—a simplification successful the outgo of putting antiaircraft systems into abstraction of 2,400 times since the mid-1980s. This makes it acold much affordable to loft a rocket defence strategy into orbit.

On the electronics front, the advancements are adjacent much impressive. Computing powerfulness has surged implicit 40 years, with costs of processing powerfulness dropping by implicit 37 cardinal times from 1985 to 2025, enabling real-time tracking of missiles aimed astatine the homeland.

With lighter sensors and computers, modern interceptor rocket warheads tin measurement 4-10 pounds, compared to 22 pounds successful 1985. Space-based sensor systems tin beryllium likewise lighter and acold much capable.

This gyration successful the outgo to orbit and the outgo of computing powerfulness has apt deed an inflection constituent wherever it whitethorn beryllium little costly to physique a rocket defence shield than to physique violative atomic weapons.

The U.S. builds a caller ICBM for astir $162 million, portion a modern rocket interceptor, astatine 110 pounds, mightiness outgo $12,000 to motorboat into orbit and $1 cardinal to manufacture. Deploying 1,000 interceptors could outgo $1 cardinal (many interceptors are needed successful orbit to antagonistic immoderate fixed launch), versus $16.2 cardinal for 100 ICBMs, suggesting defence could beryllium cheaper, particularly with ongoing technological improvements.

Trump’s Golden Dome: A modern vision

President Trump’s Golden Dome project, connected the different hand, is simply a $175 cardinal rocket defence strategy designed to support the U.S. from ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, including those launched from space. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, which has proven effectual against short-range rockets, the Golden Dome aims to shield the full U.S., a continent-spanning federation 450 times larger, from precocious threats. As envisioned, the strategy includes space-based interceptors, sensors, and satellites. Trump wants to person the strategy afloat operational by 2029, integrating next-generation technologies crossed land, sea, and space.

Given the 360-fold simplification successful abstraction motorboat costs (and apt 1,000-fold), and the monolithic summation successful physics capacity, Trump’s Golden Dome could recognize Reagan’s SDI dreams.

Unsurprisingly, China attacked the rocket defence inaugural little than 24 hours later, parroting the erstwhile Soviet Union’s effect to SDI.

More importantly, the Department of Defense volition beryllium susceptible of protecting the homeland from a devastating atomic attack—without automatically resorting to a monolithic atomic counterstrike that could termination and coiled 100 cardinal radical oregon more.