Ultimate UCL final preview, predictions

On Saturday, the 2024-25 European nine play comes to an extremity with the accepted closer, the UEFA Champions League final. Held successful Munich this year, the head-to-head is simply a tantalizing 1 that fewer expected: the "born again" Paris Saint-Germain, led by manager Luis Enrique and a young, bare squad, taking connected wily veterans Inter Milan, who person a unsocial formation, plentifulness of savvy stars and an underrated tactician successful Simone Inzaghi.

Both teams person taken down giants to scope the showpiece finale -- PSG eliminated Liverpool and Arsenal successful the knockout rounds, portion Inter Milan fended disconnected fancied Barcelona and Bayern Munich to punch their summons -- and present look a winner-take-all showdown.

So who volition win, and what storylines are bubbling nether the surface? ESPN writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Julien Laurens, Tom Hamilton and Bill Connelly locomotion you done what to ticker for and springiness their picks for who volition assertion the prize Saturday night.

A last of younker vs. experience

The opposition is evident. Inter's apt starting XI person an mean property of 30 years and 4 months; Paris Saint-Germain's is 24 and 7 months. Inter person 8 players who featured the past clip they were successful the Champions League final, 2 years ago; Marquinhos is the lone PSG starter to person played successful a Champions League last astatine immoderate clip successful his career.

That's the astir evident quality betwixt Saturday's finalists, and what interaction it volition person volition beryllium heavy connected however the crippled is played.

A higher tempo evidently favors the caller legs of PSG, whereas a slower, nervy grind ought to springiness Inter the edge, astatine slightest connected paper. But some sides are acold much multifaceted than they appear. Both tin play a possession game, poking and prodding until the close opening appears -- witnesser Ousmane Dembélé's opener against Arsenal, a effect of 26 passes -- but some tin beryllium nonstop and deed you going north-south. PSG person the velocity of Dembele, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola; Inter person the chemistry of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martínez, a uncommon beforehand tandem successful the modern game.

It's not arsenic simple, therefore, to liken it to a hoops crippled and suggest Inter privation less possessions and PSG privation more, due to the fact that some coaches tin and bash premix things up. Rather, possibly precisely due to the fact that these teams are managed by 2 of the champion around, we mightiness spot immoderate myths get buried Monday night. Inter mightiness amusement that the parameters of fittingness and athleticism person changed and that apical pros tin spell beardown into their aboriginal 30s. PSG mightiness amusement that acquisition is overrated comparative to crippled quality and tactical instruction.

So don't conscionable boil this down to acquisition vs. athleticism. There's overmuch much to it. -- Marcotti

Battle of the superstar, MVP goalkeepers

The Champions League is usually each astir the superstar forwards and their quality to triumph games retired of nothing, from Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to Mohamed Salah and Vinícius Júnior, but this clip around, it could beryllium decided by the goalkeepers.

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Klinsmann hails Yann Sommer's heroics successful Inter's semifinal win

Jurgen Klinsmann names Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer arsenic his antheral of the lucifer aft coming up with immoderate immense saves to contradict Barcelona.

Inter's Yann Sommer and PSG's Gianluigi Donnarumma were the players who got their teams implicit the enactment successful the semifinals, and they person produced akin performances connected the planetary signifier with Switzerland and Italy, respectively.

Sommer, who spent a twelvemonth successful Munich with Bayern successful 2023 aft 11 seasons with Borussia Monchengladbach, replaced André Onana astatine Inter pursuing the Cameroon international's determination to Manchester United 2 years ago, and the 36-year-old has been a wide upgrade connected Onana, with his show against Barcelona successful Inter's melodramatic semifinal second-leg triumph producing astatine slightest 5 world-class saves. Donnarumma had a akin show for PSG successful their semifinal 2nd limb against Arsenal, erstwhile helium pulled disconnected unthinkable saves from Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to support Luis Enrique's squad ahead.

Sommer and Donnarumma person had to bounce backmost from hard periods successful their careers to found themselves arsenic 2 of the world's best, and they volition some beryllium looking to triumph their archetypal Champions League rubric successful Munich.

If it goes each the mode to penalties, it could beryllium excessively pugnacious to telephone betwixt the 2 goalkeepers. Sommer was the leader of Switzerland's Euro 2020 round-of-16 shootout triumph against France erstwhile helium saved a Kylian Mbappé spot kick, portion Donnarumma has won a singular six of 7 shootouts for nine and country, including the Euro 2020 last against England astatine Wembley, to springiness him an 87.5% occurrence rate. -- Ogden

Will Luis Enrique triumph different Treble?

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Laurens: Enrique doesn't get capable credit

Julien Lauren praises Luis Enrique's interaction connected PSG and reveals details of his grooming sessions.

Back successful 2015, Luis Enrique won the Treble (Champions League, LaLiga, Copa del Rey) with Barcelona and had an unstoppable beforehand 3 of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar. Ten years on, helium has the accidental to execute different one, but with different club, and could adjacent thing that lone Pep Guardiola, his erstwhile nine teammate astatine the Camp Nou, has done successful the past of the game: winning 2 Trebles with 2 antithetic clubs.

Luis Enrique has had to hold 10 years to get different shot. That's a precise agelong clip for a manager truthful obsessed with the game, though for him, it's not conscionable astir winning; it's astir however you win, and this last volition beryllium precise antithetic than the erstwhile 1 too. Then, Luis Enrique beauteous overmuch inherited Guardiola's full Barcelona squad but for Luis Suarez and Ivan Rakitic, who arrived the aforesaid summertime arsenic him, and the winning pedigree and mentality that came with it.

For this PSG squad, it's the opposite. This is his team. This is the Luis Enrique project, and this is lone Year 1. The Asturian has built it all, getting escaped of Neymar, Marco Verratti (just to sanction the 2 biggest names) and others due to the fact that they didn't acceptable with what helium was constructing. He recruited the players helium wanted (defender Willian Pacho, midfielder João Neves, playmakers Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Désiré Doué) to implicit his jigsaw and present connected his ambitious benignant of play: precocious press, precocious intensity, fluidity wrong the structure, pace, and attacking flair.

His squad has been the champion successful Europe successful 2025; they conscionable person to decorativeness the occupation connected Saturday. -- Laurens

How these teams reached the final

Simply watching these 2 teams arsenic they precocious done the Champions League knockout rounds -- PSG with shot pressure, dependable buildup and an overwhelming tilt of the field, Inter with operation and substitutions and perfectly timed swipes of the sword -- would springiness you a beauteous wide content that they thrive arsenic polar opposites. The stats precise overmuch backmost up that impression.

PSG are present due to the fact that of transportation domination. After immoderate early-season wobbles, they became possibly the champion squad successful the satellite starting successful December. Since Matchday 6, they've averaged the astir points per crippled (2.45) with the astir goals (30) and the champion extremity differential (plus-21). That includes a 7-0 triumph implicit Brest, yes, but besides 4 wins successful 5 games against the 3 teams successful England (Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City).

PSG person flooded teams with axenic quantity: For the full competition, they're 5th retired of 36 Champions League teams successful shots per possession and 3rd successful shots allowed per possession. They've attempted 45 shots worthy astatine slightest 0.2 xG and allowed 20, a plus-25 borderline that ranks first. They conscionable do more than their opponents: They're archetypal successful shot recoveries (48.6) and take-ons per lucifer (27.7), 2nd successful nonstop attacks (sequences starting successful the defending fractional and producing a changeable wrong 20 seconds) and 3rd successful buildup attacks (sequences that incorporate 10 oregon much passes and nutrient either a changeable oregon a interaction successful the box).

In short, they play similar the young and endlessly assertive squad they are.

Inter, meanwhile, capable the relation of the corporate sturdy veteran. They triumph with prime implicit quantity: They effort lone 13.6 take-ons per lucifer (35th), but they triumph 49.7% of them (third). They unit 8.8 precocious turnovers per crippled (27th) but people 0.6 goals per crippled from them (ninth). They're 15th successful shots per possession but eighth successful xG per shot, and they're 22nd successful shots allowed per possession but archetypal successful xG allowed per shot. Opponents person attempted much shots than them, but looking specifically astatine shots worthy 0.2 xG oregon more, they effort 2.3 (12th) and let lone 1.3 (third).

Inter unit you to expend vigor attempting to bushed them with idiosyncratic brilliance, and if you bash so, they are astir ever acceptable with a counterstrike. Just inquire Bayern and Barcelona. PSG volition astir surely power ample portions of the transportation and this match, but Inter are much apt to people from acceptable pieces, much apt to triumph the shot successful the aerial and astir definite to make random, high-quality opportunities that springiness them a accidental astatine Champions League glory. -- Bill Connelly

The omen of first-time winners successful Munich

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Dumfries: Champions League is the infinitesimal for Inter

Inter defender Denzel Dumfries and goalkeeper Yann Sommer look up to the Champions League last against PSG.

Munich has staged 4 erstwhile European Cup/Champions League finals -- 3 astatine the Olympiastadion, 1 astatine the Allianz Arena -- and the German metropolis has proved to beryllium fortunate for those teams aiming to beryllium crowned European champions for the archetypal time. That mightiness beryllium large quality for PSG.

Nottingham Forest won the archetypal of their 2 European Cups with a 1-0 triumph against Swedish champions Malmo successful 1979, portion Marseille became the archetypal (and truthful acold only) French nine to triumph Europe's biggest prize by defeating AC Milan 1-0 successful the Olympiastadion successful 1993. Four years later, Borussia Dortmund made the abbreviated travel to Munich to instrumentality connected reigning Champions League kings Juventus successful their first-ever final, but contempt the likelihood favoring Marcello Lippi's formidable team, Dortmund cruised to a 3-1 win.

Bayern Munich faced Chelsea connected location crushed successful the 2012 final, but contempt facing the English broadside successful their ain stadium, Bayern could not interruption the series of first-time winners successful Bavaria arsenic Chelsea sealed the archetypal of their 2 Champions League titles with a punishment shootout triumph astatine the Allianz.

So volition three-time European champions Inter beryllium capable to contradict PSG a archetypal Champions League rubric successful Munich this weekend, oregon volition Luis Enrique's squad support the series going?

One much spot of bully quality for PSG: Marseille clinched a French triumph successful Munich successful 1993 by defeating a squad from Milan successful their 2nd effort astatine winning the competition. PSG look different squad from Milan successful Munich, 1 that's besides aiming to triumph the Champions League connected the 2nd attempt. -- Ogden

Two unthinkable afloat backs, but lone 1 tin win

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Can PSG beryllium inspired by the Munich UCL last bully luck charm?

Julien Laurens and Mark Ogden sermon what PSG volition request to bash to bushed Inter Milan successful the Champions League final.

Back successful the summertime of 2021, Achraf Hakimi and Denzel Dumfries passed similar ships. Hakimi had enjoyed an incredibly palmy 2020-21 play astatine Inter Milan and helped Antonio Conte's broadside to the Scudetto. At the extremity of that term, helium departed for PSG.

Hakimi's replacement? Dumfries, signed for €15 million, a fraction of the eventual €71 cardinal Inter Milan collected for Hakimi.

But present they're backmost connected the aforesaid pitch, and it's nary exaggeration to accidental the brace person been outstanding successful this year's tournament.

Dumfries was integral to Inter's singular triumph implicit Barcelona successful the semifinals, scoring doubly successful the archetypal limb (including connected that scissor kick), and past managing to tee up Lautaro Martinez for their opener successful the instrumentality fixture successful Milan. Hakimi has kept a adjacent oculus connected Dumfries, saying past week: "He's a large player. One happening I similar astir him is that he's precise beardown successful the air, portion I'm terrible." Then came the small dig, however, with Hakimi saying it's "easier" to play helping backmost successful a 3-5-2 than to grip a backmost 4 role.

Hakimi has been consistently regarded arsenic the champion close backmost successful satellite football, and helium has enjoyed different superb play for PSG, adjacent scoring the victor against Arsenal successful their semifinal.

The 2 had precise antithetic paths to the top: Dumfries played amateur shot to property 18 earlier progressing to PSV and past Inter Milan, portion Hakimi came done the Real Madrid academy. But if you look astatine the stats comparison betwixt the 2 this season, they are adjacent connected galore metrics, specified arsenic crushed duels won and tackles per 90 minutes. Then comes the nuance: Hakimi has made 3.67 interceptions per 90, compared with Dumfries' 1.27, and Dumfries has been acold much ascendant successful the aerial (winning 71% of aerial duels to Hakimi's 47%).

They are precise antithetic types of players, but 1 happening binds them: their tendency to get into onslaught and power the match. Which 1 volition person the defining infinitesimal Saturday? -- Hamilton

It's prediction time! Who volition win, and by what scoreline?

Inter Milan 2, PSG 1: As soon arsenic Inter and PSG confirmed their spots successful the final, I predicted a 2-1 triumph for Inter, and I americium sticking with that. I judge PSG are the amended squad and much breathtaking to watch, but Inter are a tough, uncompromising broadside with a cutting borderline up front, truthful I americium backing their resoluteness implicit PSG's flair to seal the win. -- Ogden

Inter Milan 2, PSG 0: They knocked retired the champions of Germany and Spain, truthful wherefore not marque it a trifecta with the champions of France, too? The bookies fancy PSG, and you tin spot why. But if the crippled comes down to acceptable pieces (where Inter person an edge) and intangibles (experience, sure, but besides the quality to get backmost up aft being punched successful the face), Inter tin shadiness this. -- Marcotti

Inter Milan 3, PSG 2: This is going to beryllium tight, but Inter volition borderline it. They person the astir underrated manager (Simone Inzaghi) successful satellite football, and their quality to arm-wrestle the tightest matches into triumph volition travel done again. -- Hamilton

PSG 1, Inter Milan 0: We'll conscionable play the likelihood here. Inter volition inevitably make a mates of bully chances, but PSG volition make much of them. -- Connelly