Unveiling our 2025 NFL season projections: Predicting the top teams and Super Bowl favorites

The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to triumph Super Bowl LX -- but conscionable barely, with a clump of teams adjacent to the reigning champs successful presumption of quality and accidental to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That's according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) -- our shot ratings and projection exemplary -- which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.

The Eagles person a 12% accidental to triumph the Super Bowl according to the model, the lowest accidental the preseason favourite has had to triumph it each since the exemplary began outputting preseason projections successful 2015.

In the preseason, FPI's wide predictive ratings are chiefly based connected triumph totals from the betting marketplace successful conjunction with each team's docket -- on with factors specified arsenic the quality betwixt a team's starting and backup backmost and a peculiar teams standing that incorporates circumstantial kickers. We usage these ratings to simulate the play thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.

Ratings germinate arsenic we larn much astir each squad based connected its show connected offense, defence and peculiar teams -- accounting for hostile -- on with backmost show and changes. Game predictions are besides affected by home-field vantage and remainder differentials. Let's dive into our 2025 forecast and our biggest takeaways.

Jump to:
Top teams | Super Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who's last? | No. 1 pick

Eagles apical the NFL's elite group

The NFL's 2025 oligarchy consists of a wide apical tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills. These teams are separated by astatine astir a azygous constituent successful FPI rating, meaning nary of them would beryllium favored by much than a azygous constituent implicit different connected a neutral field. But there's a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off betwixt the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.

First look astatine NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7

The communal taxable betwixt the apical 5 teams? Offensive strength. That's right, the "defense wins championships" cliché isn't reflected here. Offense is much unchangeable from crippled to crippled and play to season, truthful teams with the champion past backmost and violative accumulation are much apt to repetition that success. That's captious due to the fact that the constituent of the FPI is to look ahead, not back. It's nary coincidence that the apical 5 teams besides person the 5 champion offenses according to the FPI, albeit successful a antithetic order.

But it's not all discourtesy -- the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly successful the wide pb due to the fact that they besides person the champion defense. With linebacker Zack Baun backmost to anchor the mediate and ascending young endowment specified arsenic antiaircraft tackle Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly's defence sets it apart.

All 5 teams successful the apical tier person astatine slightest an 8% accidental to triumph the Super Bowl, and determination is simply a 50% accidental that the Super Bowl victor is 1 of those 5 teams. No different squad has greater than a 5% accidental to triumph it all.

Could we spot an Eagles-Chiefs repetition successful the Super Bowl?

Two of the past three Super Bowls person been betwixt Kansas City and Philadelphia. Will it beryllium 3 of four? The 4.2% accidental of a Super Bowl LIX repetition is the top of immoderate operation of teams successful our Super Bowl matchup projections, somewhat besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles matchups. Top combinations are listed beneath and rounded to the nearest full number.

When looking astatine the apical 10 astir apt Super Bowl combinations, respective antithetic NFC teams look connected the list. The Eagles and Lions amusement up the most, but the Commanders, Rams and 49ers each appeared successful 1 of the astir apt combinations. The AFC broadside of the matchups was dominated by 3 teams -- the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens.

Who is the favourite successful the loaded NFC North?

It's not a large surprise, but each squad successful NFC North ranks successful the apical fractional of the FPI ratings. Detroit leads the mode astatine No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).

If determination is simply a curveball, it's that Minnesota ranks lone 15th aft going 14-3 successful 2024. But the Vikings relied connected their defence -- which ranked 3rd successful EPA per play -- past play portion ranking a mediocre 15th connected offense. And adjacent though Brian Flores remains arsenic antiaircraft coordinator, antiaircraft occurrence is hard to replicate.

Plus, second-year backmost J.J. McCarthy is an chartless aft missing his rookie season with a torn ACL. While helium mightiness person much upside than past year's starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy's downside is astir surely lower. Therefore, the FPI gives Minnesota lone a 19% accidental to triumph the part and a 43% accidental to scope the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bears moved successful the other direction. After Chicago finished 24th successful full ratio (EPA per play adjusted for garbage time) past season, the FPI sees it arsenic a minimally above-average squad entering 2025. The reasons for optimism are obvious. The Bears brought successful new coach Ben Johnson and added significant talent to their violative line, and backmost Caleb Williams present has a play of NFL acquisition -- adjacent if that acquisition was shaky.

So, who comes retired ahead? The Lions pb the mode with a 41% changeable to triumph the division, with the Packers clocking successful astatine 25%. But they each person a chance, arsenic adjacent the Bears are astatine 15%.

Can the 49ers bounce backmost and triumph the NFC West?

FPI narrowly has the Rams arsenic the champion squad successful the NFC West. But the favourite to triumph the division? That would (very narrowly) beryllium the 49ers, with a 36% changeable implicit the Rams' 34%.

Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No squad enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not lone get to look the NFC South and AFC South similar the remainder of their division, but besides the Giants, Browns and Bears owed to finishing past successful the part successful 2024. In comparison, the Rams indispensable look the Eagles, Ravens and Lions arsenic portion of their first-place schedule.

That is capable to springiness San Francisco the borderline implicit Los Angeles successful the projections. It besides indicates the FPI's content successful the 49ers bouncing backmost aft a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A large portion of that religion is the betting marketplace believing the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players past play -- including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, moving backmost Christian McCaffrey and violative lineman Trent Williams -- and that they should beryllium unsafe if healthy.

Can immoderate of the different AFC East teams situation the Bills?

They could, but nary idiosyncratic squad is peculiarly apt to bash so. Buffalo is the lone AFC East squad with a affirmative FPI standing and would beryllium considered much than a four-point favourite implicit each of the different 3 connected a neutral field. And the Bills person a 65% accidental to triumph their part -- the highest of immoderate squad successful the NFL by a hefty margin.

Of course, that leaves much than a 1-in-3 accidental that idiosyncratic other wins the AFC East. That's chiefly owed to the uncertainty of shot -- the FPI mightiness beryllium overrating the Bills oregon underrating idiosyncratic else, oregon 1 of the different teams lucks into the part contempt not being arsenic bully arsenic Buffalo overall.

But that variance volition ever beryllium there. In the meantime, the Bills are again successful arsenic bully a presumption arsenic it gets to triumph their division.

Will the Bengals instrumentality to the playoffs?

Probably! Cincinnati's 2024 run disappointingly ended successful the regular play contempt backmost Joe Burrow ranking 3rd successful QBR, the champion show of his career. But defence held the Bengals back, arsenic they ranked 23rd successful EPA allowed per play and peculiarly struggled against the run, ranking 30th successful EPA successful defending rushing plays.

But the deficiency of year-to-year continuity that happens with bully defenses besides happens with weaker units. Cincinnati replaced antiaircraft coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which increases the FPI's uncertainty connected that broadside of the ball. Ultimately, the exemplary forecasts the Bengals to person an mean defense, which moves them to No. 7 successful the wide rankings.

The Ravens are by acold the astir apt AFC North champion astatine 54%, and the Bengals are adjacent astatine 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% accidental to scope the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff squad successful the AFC aft missing the postseason the past 2 seasons.

Who ranks last?

The FPI's 32nd-ranked squad is not the Titans, Browns oregon Giants. It's the Saints, who find themselves astatine the bottommost of the rankings aft the sudden retirement of seasoned backmost Derek Carr. His status forces New Orleans to rely connected either second-round rookie Tyler Shough oregon second-year subordinate Spencer Rattler astatine quarterback, barring different move. All rookie quarterbacks are viewed arsenic a antagonistic successful the FPI, but a second-rounder similar Shough -- who the exemplary presumes volition commencement -- volition beryllium considered a small worse than Cameron Ward, whom Tennessee selected with the No. 1 pick.

The bully quality for the Saints is that the FPI doesn't deliberation overmuch of the NFC South. Only the Buccaneers person a affirmative FPI standing (they fertile 14th). The Falcons and Panthers fertile 26th and 28th, respectively. Partially due to the fact that the part is truthful weak, each 4 NFC South teams fertile successful the bottommost six successful spot of schedule, which boosts each of their triumph projections. As a result, the Saints person lone the fourth-best accidental astatine the No. 1 prime successful the 2026 draught contempt their last-place wide FPI ranking.

Cleveland connected the clock?

The Browns are the astir apt squad to extremity the play holding the No. 1 prime successful the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. Much of that is owed to a backmost country comprised of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.

The Giants are rated somewhat supra the Browns successful the FPI and person the second-highest accidental to gain the No. 1 prime astatine 12%, owed to facing the league's most hard schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets travel with 11%, 10% and 10% chances, respectively.