Virginia's trailblazing candidates for governor prepare to battle over the economy, abortion and Trump

Tuesday is superior time successful Virginia — but the wide predetermination matchup for the commonwealth’s highest bureau is already set.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a erstwhile U.S. representative, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, person known for months that they would look disconnected against each different successful the race to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, since they were the lone major-party candidates to suffice for the ballot.

One of them is guaranteed to marque past by being elected Virginia's archetypal pistillate governor. And they’ve already been moving wide election-focused campaigns for months, providing an aboriginal jump-start to 1 of conscionable 2 governor’s races this twelvemonth (the different is successful New Jersey). Those elections volition beryllium aboriginal indicators of however voters are responding to President Donald Trump — and wherever the governmental winds are blowing up of the 2026 midterms.

Already, wide dividing lines person emerged from some campaigns, providing a representation of however each campaigner mightiness carve retired a way to winning Virginia's apical governmental occupation and navigating the authorities of Trump's 2nd term.

Spanberger has focused heavy connected economical and affordability issues, arsenic good arsenic her enactment for reproductive rights successful a authorities that abortion-rights groups item arsenic a uncommon spot successful the South wherever termination attraction remains wide accessible until viability. Spanberger’s run and allied groups person also, much broadly, attacked Earle-Sears implicit her conservative grounds connected further societal issues, similar contraception and matrimony quality.

In addition, the Spanberger run and its allies person often deed Earle-Sears implicit what they telephone an indifferent effect to Trump’s moves to shrink the national workforce. Virginia is location to much than 340,000 national workers.

Earle-Sears has, successful ample part, gone all-in connected the accomplishments of the Youngkin administration, telling voters that electing her would people a continuation of the fashionable (but term-limited) Republican governor’s record, including increasing the backstage assemblage of the system and standing up for “parents’ rights” successful their children's schools and classrooms.

Still, immoderate Republicans person criticized Earle-Sears’ campaign, complaining that it lacks discipline and consistency.

In interviews, Republican operatives successful the authorities and elsewhere person grumbled that the run has lacked a cardinal message.

“I privation to spot her succeed. She’s conscionable not moving a bully campaign,” said a GOP operative who has worked successful Virginia, who was granted anonymity to talk candidly astir the campaign.

“Her failures person allowed for Spanberger to conscionable beryllium tight. But clip is not connected Earle-Sears’ side. It’s connected Spanberger's side, due to the fact that of the constitution of the authorities and due to the fact that of her wealth advantage,” the operative said.

But the operative and different Republicans NBC News spoke to person pointed retired that it remains acold excessively aboriginal to forecast a doomed ending for the Earle-Sears campaign, noting that the ceremonial wide predetermination rhythm is lone conscionable opening and pointing retired that Youngkin himself landed a adjacent come-from-behind triumph 4 years ago.

Earle-Sears “has a large story,” and “she tin beryllium electrifying connected the stump,” the operative said.

Earle-Sears run spokesperson Peyton Vogel said she would physique connected Youngkin’s grounds and support Virginia “on the close track.”

“This contention is simply a wide choice: Abigail Spanberger represents the Biden presumption quo — higher prices, soft-on-crime policies, and a warfare connected parents’ rights,” Vogel said successful an email. “Winsome is gathering a question powered by existent Virginians who privation to support Virginia connected the close track.”

In an email, Spanberger run spokesperson Connor Joseph framed the contention done the issues she has embraced arsenic her main talking points: affordability, economical issues, reproductive state and taking connected Trump.

Joseph said Spanberger is "relentlessly focused connected making Virginia much affordable for their families, strengthening schools for their kids, and increasing the Commonwealth’s system for everyone.”

“In this infinitesimal marked by truthful overmuch uncertainty, Virginia voters besides cognize that Abigail volition ne'er beryllium acrophobic to basal up to the Trump Administration’s attacks connected Virginia jobs and Virginia’s system — and they cognize that Abigail volition beryllium a Governor who ever defends their cardinal freedoms, dissimilar her opponent,” helium said.

How the campaigns are mounting up their stories

Both candidates launched their archetypal tv ads in caller weeks, highlighting their biographies arsenic they present themselves to voters.

Earle-Sears, a Jamaican immigrant, is simply a Marine veteran, electrician and businesswoman. She served successful the House of Delegates and arsenic vice president of the commonwealth’s Board of Education earlier she ran for lieutenant politician successful 2021. She went connected to go the state’s archetypal pistillate lieutenant politician and the archetypal Black pistillate successful statewide office.

Spanberger, a erstwhile CIA officer, flipped a Republican-held House spot successful 2018 and established herself arsenic a much mean lawmaker, aligning with colleagues with nationalist information backgrounds.

From Jan 1. done Tuesday, $3.7 cardinal had been spent connected ads successful the race, according to AdImpact. The Spanberger run has spent $1.4 million, portion the Earle-Sears run has spent $2.3 million.

That disparity, however, hasn’t been reflected successful precise aboriginal polling, which has shown Spanberger ahead. In a caller Roanoke College poll, 32% of respondents viewed Earle-Sears favorably, with 48% saying they had unfavorable views. Another 20% of respondents said they had nary sentiment of her. By contrast, 41% of respondents said they viewed Spanberger favorably, with 40% saying they viewed her unfavorably.

The numbers bespeak the uphill ascent Republicans had already faced successful their quest to support power of the governorship. Off-year governor's elections thin to beryllium bellwethers of the broader governmental situation — and the enactment successful powerfulness successful Washington. In 11 of the past 12 Virginia governor's races, voters elected the campaigner of the enactment retired of powerfulness successful the White House.

But the run won't by immoderate agelong hinge lone connected what's happening successful Washington. Democratic-aligned groups person signaled an eagerness to highlight, for example, Earle-Sears’ blimpish positions connected a brace of issues connected which she isn’t aligned with Youngkin: same-sex matrimony and termination rights.

“With Republicans laying the groundwork to prohibition contraception and Winsome Earle-Sears vowing to bash everything successful her powerfulness to extremity termination successful the state, reproductive state is connected the ballot successful Virginia this November, and we’re going to marque definite voters cognize that,” EMILY’s List President Jessica Mackler said successful an interview. Her group, which works to elite Democratic women who enactment termination rights, endorsed Spanberger successful December 2023, conscionable weeks aft she launched her run portion she was inactive successful Congress.

Still, Democrats person refused to instrumentality thing for granted successful a authorities Trump mislaid by little past twelvemonth than successful his erstwhile races and wherever respective caller governor’s races person been close.

“I bash consciousness similar we person momentum, but astatine the aforesaid time, we are prepared for this to beryllium precise competitive,” Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Meghan Meehan-Draper said connected a telephone with reporters past week. “The stakes of this contention are mode excessively precocious for america to instrumentality thing for granted.”

Youngkin has continued to publically heap praise connected his No. 2, calling her successful caller months a "steadfast partner" who would beryllium capable to physique connected his record. He has often referred to the wins and accomplishments of the “Youngkin-Earle-Sears administration.”

"Winsome Earle-Sears is the American Dream," helium wrote connected X this year. "Her beingness of work to God, Family, Country and Commonwealth has prepared her to instrumentality the Governor’s mansion this autumn and support Virginia winning."