Todd ZolaJun 23, 2025, 09:39 AM ET
- Todd Zola is contributing writer for phantasy shot astatine ESPN, specializing successful crippled mentation and subordinate analysis. Todd is simply a subordinate of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He won LABR and Tout Wars championships successful 2016.
We've each been down this roadworthy before: Jo Adell is connected a blistery streak. This ne'er ends well. Fool maine once, shame connected you. Fool maine twice, shame connected me. And yet...
Last season, Adell acceptable vocation highs crossed the board, but it inactive wasn't capable to beryllium connected the phantasy radar, extracurricular of heavy AL-only formats. For the 2025 play (through games of Sunday, June 22), Adell ranks arsenic the No. 55 outfielder connected the ESPN Player Rater. As such, he's been a streamer (at best) successful modular ESPN leagues. However, since May 29, Adell has generated a .280/.365/.707 line, featuring 10 location runs. We've seen streaks similar this earlier from Adell, and his past warns of impending doom. So, wherefore should this play beryllium immoderate different?
Well, Adell's accustomed pitfall is that his excessive strikeout full catches up with him. He's inactive fanning astatine an above-average clip, but this time, it's astatine a career-low gait and it marks the 2nd consecutive play he's improved his interaction rate. Furthermore, the underlying metrics suggest that Adell should beryllium good wrong the apical 50 outfielders. His mean exit velocity and hard-hit and Barrel rates are each the champion of his career. According to Statcast, Adell's expected batting mean is .264 with an expected slugging percent of .547 (compared to his existent .224 and .479 levels).
By means of comparison, Seiya Suzuki's mean is .256 with a .539 slugging percentage, less than 10 points beneath Adell's expected numbers. Suzuki checks successful arsenic the No. 15 phantasy outfielder. Of course, his 105 runs-plus-RBI are importantly much than Adell's 65, which contributes to Suzuki's elevated ranking. That said, if Adell were performing person to his expected level, the quality of 40 runs-plus-RBI would beryllium a batch little than it is.
The statement present isn't that Adell has top-20 outfielder potential, but helium surely could interruption his inclination of reverting to a less-useful second-half subordinate and beryllium fantasy-relevant going guardant -- adjacent successful modular ESPN leagues. Adell is presently disposable successful implicit 91% of ESPN leagues.
Another sanction to consider
Michael Toglia, 1B, Colorado Rockies (available successful 96.7% of ESPN leagues): After clubbing 25 homers successful conscionable 116 games past season, phantasy managers were intrigued by Toglia's full-season imaginable if helium could amended connected past season's 32.2% strikeout rate. However, done May 30, Toglia had deed conscionable six homers done 54 games portion punching retired 39.1% of the time, earning himself a demotion to Triple-A Albuquerque.
In 11 games with the Isotopes, Toglia produced 3 homers portion lowering his strikeout to a inactive high, but acold much palatable 29.4%. Since his June 16 recall, he's swatted 3 homers successful six games for the Rockies (all connected the road) portion his strikeout complaint sits astatine a somewhat elevated 30.8%.
Admittedly, 11 games connected the workplace and six successful the bigs isn't a convincing sample, but the Rockies' docket is highly favorable. They play 12 of their adjacent 21 games astatine home, and their 3 roadworthy bid are with the Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds -- astatine 3 of the champion hitting venues successful the league.
Rotisserie-style subordinate to add
Cam Smith, 3B/OF, Houston Astros (available successful 90%): Houston's patience with Smith has paid off. After losing playing clip successful aboriginal May, thing has seemingly clicked. Since May 15, Smith's enactment has been a steadfast .308/.357/.453. A 3rd baseman by trade, Smith's blistery outpouring led to him starting the play arsenic the team's regular close fielder. The positional alteration has been favorable, arsenic Smith's 7 antiaircraft runs saved ranks 4th astatine the position.
Being included successful the rotisserie-style conception suggests that Smith contributes to aggregate categories. Expecting him to support up his existent pace, prorating his past 34 games generates 10 homers, 10 steals, 75 runs and 75 RBI going forward. Add successful his multi-positional eligibility and Smith tin decidedly beryllium a phantasy plus implicit the 2nd fractional of the season.
Two-start pitcher to add
Chad Patrick, SP, Brewers (available successful 89.6%): Patrick merits attraction based solely connected his show to date. Add successful the upcoming double-dip astatine location against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Rockies and the righty is the apical pitching people of the week. Patrick is connected pat to look the second- and third-lowest scoring roadworthy offenses.
The rookie has started 15 of his 16 outings with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has punched retired 76 batters implicit 79 2/3 innings portion allowing lone 8 homers. The Brewers are softly processing the estimation for getting the astir retired of their arms, which is particularly adjuvant since they bash play fractional their games successful hitter-friendly American Family Field.
Deeper-league pitching pickups
Last week successful this space, Tristan H. Cockcroft recommended stashing Reds SP Chase Burns. That proposal proved to beryllium prescient, arsenic the Reds are reportedly calling up Burns to commencement Tuesday's location matter against the New York Yankees. The catch, however, is that not lone would Burns person a pugnacious debut opponent, but he'd besides past beryllium slated for roadworthy tilts with the Philadelphia Phillies and Red Sox, 2 much potent offenses. On the different hand, aboriginal successful their respective developments, galore scouts and endowment evaluators considered Burns and Paul Skenes to beryllium comparable. Food for thought.
Slade Cecconi, SP, Cleveland Guardians (97.9% available): Cecconi is emerging arsenic different merchandise of the Guardians' pitching factory. The nine targeted him erstwhile dealing Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He struggled successful May, with his archetypal 3 games for Cleveland resulting a 5.28 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, albeit with an awesome 17 strikeouts to conscionable 5 walks implicit 15 1/3 frames. His contented was the 5 homers helium served up. As usual, the Guardians helped Cecconi set and helium has since delivered a 3.00 ERA and a 1.27 ERA implicit his astir caller 3 outings, racking up different 17 strikeouts implicit 15 frames -- each portion yielding conscionable 1 longball.
Janson Junk, SP, Miami Marlins (98.3% available): Junk is much of a flyer, but helium has had immoderate caller occurrence arsenic some a superior pitcher and starter. Plus, he's ticketed for much starts with Max Meyer inactive sidelined. Junk's calling paper has been stellar bid and control, on with fanning astir a batter per inning. He lone started once, but Junk has thrown astatine slightest 4 frames successful each 1 of his six outings, resulting successful 25 strikeouts and conscionable 2 walks (with nary homers allowed) successful his 27 2/3 innings. Junk intelligibly won't support up this pace, but with a roadworthy crippled successful San Francisco this week and a imaginable location day with the Twins adjacent week, this is simply a pitcher worthy considering.
Closer to add
Orion Kerkering, RP, Phillies, (95.5% available): Fantasy managers person been pining for Kerkering to seizure the Phillies' person occupation for a mates of years. He whitethorn not cod each remaining opportunity, but with 2 saves implicit the past week, 1 tin surely accidental that helium is successful the ninth-inning mix. If determination is 1 reliever connected the nine susceptible of earning manager Rob Thomson's trust, it's Kerkering.