David SchoenfieldJun 21, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former lawman exertion of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this play for a pb successful the National League East that has gone backmost and distant betwixt the 2 clubs, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game pb June 12 earlier losing six successful a enactment to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drafting the Phillies backmost in.
The Braves were expected to beryllium portion of this premix but person stumbled done a unspeakable archetypal half, leaving this arsenic a two-team race. While Mets and Phillies fans are bitter rivals, it's been a agelong clip since the 2 teams person clashed for a part crown. Even past season, erstwhile some teams joined the Braves successful the playoffs, the Mets were ne'er truly successful the part race, getting nary person successful the 2nd fractional than 5 games backmost successful the last week.
The Mets and Braves tied for the part rubric with 101 wins successful 2022, but the Phillies finished 14 games behind, lone to get blistery successful the postseason and scope the World Series. The Phillies were atrocious for a agelong clip earlier that, the Mets mostly bad, truthful we spell backmost to 2008 to find the astir caller heated Mets-Phillies part race. The Mets were a half-game up with 9 to play, but they finished 3-6, portion the Phillies went 6-2 to triumph the part by 3 games -- and went connected to triumph the World Series.
What has enactment some teams successful this position? Let's look astatine the biggest spot truthful acold for the Mets, Phillies and each the teams successful the majors with records presently supra .500 this season, starting with the National League.
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 47-30 (1st successful NL West)
Biggest strength: Offense
Just similar the Cubs, the Dodgers mightiness person the champion discourtesy successful franchise history, league-adjusted. They pb the majors successful runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 would beryllium their highest ever. (If we region pitchers from the equation, the apical people goes to the 1953 Brooklyn nine astatine 126.) This is thing new, arsenic the Dodgers person ranked archetypal oregon 2nd successful the NL successful runs scored each play since 2018.
We cognize each astir the singular exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his accidental to go the archetypal subordinate to people 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, but 1 large cardinal of precocious has been Max Muncy -- present wearing glasses. Through April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with nary location runs successful 28 games. He wore glasses for the archetypal clip connected April 30 and homered that night. He's hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet different lethal bat.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 46-30 (1st successful NL East)
Biggest strength: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez
On insubstantial and successful the standings, the Phillies lucifer up with the Mets. When you excavation into the numbers, however, the Mets should beryllium up of them. Even with their caller slide, the Mets person a plus-60 tally differential, with the Phillies astatine plus-42. The Mets are 5th successful the majors successful bullpen triumph probability added, the Phillies mode down astatine 23rd arsenic they've struggled with their person situation. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and connected the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a small down astatine the sheet and is present injured arsenic well.
But the Phillies bash person Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his accustomed thing, erstwhile again connected the abbreviated database for champion pitcher successful baseball. At 35, he's not lone showing nary signs of age, but has a career-high strikeout complaint of 32.5%. Suarez, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA successful starts aft opening the play connected the IL. After giving up 7 runs successful his archetypal start, helium has been successful lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA crossed 8 starts, including 5 of 7 innings. Suarez has had runs similar this before, including a 2.76 ERA successful the archetypal fractional past play that earned him an All-Star spot.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 45-30 (1st successful NL Central)
Biggest strength: Offense. And defense. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong
How bully has the Cubs' discourtesy been? They're averaging 5.36 runs per game, 2nd successful the majors. The past clip they came adjacent to that was 5.31 successful 2008. The past clip they averaged much per crippled was 1935, erstwhile 5 regulars deed implicit .300. If we set for league context, however, the 2025 Cubs person the highest wRC+ successful franchise past since 1900. This is an fantabulous offense.
How bully has the Cubs' defence been? They're 2nd successful the majors successful some antiaircraft runs saved and Statcast's fielding tally value.
Leading the mode connected some sides of the shot has been the thrilling, the wonderful, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How bully has the 23-year-old halfway fielder been? With his defense, powerfulness and speed, helium has already posted 4.3 WAR though 74 games, a season-long gait of 9.5. Only 4 Cubs presumption players person topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby successful 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa successful 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks successful 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo successful 1967 (9.8).
The analytics accidental helium can't support this up, that pitchers volition fig however to exploit his league-worst pursuit rate. Except they haven't yet (see the 452-foot location tally helium conscionable deed a fewer days ago). In the Statcast metrics, helium ranks successful the 100th percentile successful fielding value, 99th percentile successful baserunning value, and 89th percentile successful batting value. Call that the triple crown of awesomeness.
New York Mets
Record: 45-31 (2nd successful NL East)
Biggest strength: Starting pitching
The Mets' large 3 -- Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso -- person each been outstanding, with Soto backmost connected way aft a dilatory start, but the rotation has keyed the team's beardown start, starring the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They've done it adjacent without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who haven't pitched successful the majors yet this season. Leading the mode person been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets absorption for signing Holmes arsenic a escaped cause and converting him from reliever to starter, a gutsy determination that has paid immense dividends.
Aside from apt regression, the rotation extent volition present beryllium tested. Senga conscionable injured his hamstring and mightiness miss a month. Tylor Megill is retired with an elbow sprain and could miss up to 5 weeks. Montas' rehab timepiece ends Sunday, but helium got pounded successful 4 Triple-A starts for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and conscionable 8 strikeouts successful 14⅓ innings. He looks unusable for the rotation close now, truthful the Mets mightiness person to hide him successful the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab commencement for Triple-A Syracuse connected Friday, truthful he's astatine slightest getting closer. The Mets mightiness besides person a limb waiting successful the minors if needed successful Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA successful Double-A portion averaging 14.6 K's per nine.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 42-34 (2nd successful NL West)
Biggest strength: Front-line pitching
The Giants are 3rd successful the majors successful ERA and 5th successful runs allowed per game, but person relied connected a comparatively tiny radical of pitchers to execute that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has besides moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.
Not surprisingly, the Giants person a batch of assistance from their location park: Their ERA is 2.89 astatine location and 3.72 connected the road. That roadworthy ERA is inactive seventh champion successful the majors, but the Giants person surely thrived astatine home, wherever they are 23-14 contempt averaging less than 4 runs per game. Acquiring Rafael Devers volition assistance the offense, but the unit volition stay connected the pitching to triumph these low-scoring games. The Giants are 18-15 successful one-run games, starring the majors successful one-run games played and one-run wins -- with 10 specified wins coming erstwhile they've scored 3 oregon less runs.
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd successful NL Central)
Biggest strength: Position subordinate durability
OK, this is benignant of a weird one, but we're trying to fig retired however the Brewers are erstwhile again succeeding. Their bullpen has been solid, but surely has had a fewer much leaks than the past 2 seasons, erstwhile the pen was dominant, particularly successful triumph probability added. They're bully connected the bases, but adjacent the bottommost of the league successful location runs. So let's spell with lineup stability.
The Brewers person played 76 games, and 7 players person played astatine slightest 70 of them. That's beauteous singular successful today's game, erstwhile staying steadfast sometimes feels similar fractional the battle. Other than Joey Ortiz, they person each produced affirmative WAR -- and since the Brewers are not utilizing their seat overmuch oregon resorting to call-ups, they're avoiding the "bad" sheet appearances that resistance down immoderate lineups. No azygous subordinate is tearing it up, but having 7 somewhat amended than mean hitters mightiness beryllium capable to triumph a chaotic card.
St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd successful NL Central)
Biggest strength: Rotation stability
The Cardinals person been a mild surprise, adjacent without immoderate circumstantial happening lasting out. Is anybody connected discourtesy sidesplitting it? Not really. Brendan Donovan is hitting implicit .300 and has a clump of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting implicit .300 and has an OPS implicit .900, but helium missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not exactly, no. Closer Ryan Helsley has 5 blown saves. Is the defence great? Maybe, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, but the teamwide metrics don't basal out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th successful ERA.
But ... the rotation has been stable, with the apical 5 guys each making astatine slightest 14 starts. They've needed lone 4 starts from extracurricular those five, 2 of those coming successful doubleheaders and a 3rd resulting from a doubleheader. This is simply a alteration from past year, erstwhile 8 pitchers made astatine slightest six starts and particularly from the 91-loss play of 2023, erstwhile lone Miles Mikolas made much than 21 starts. Similar to the Brewers not utilizing galore atrocious presumption players, the Cardinals astatine slightest haven't had to deploy immoderate atrocious starters -- and that keeps you successful games.
San Diego Padres
Record: 40-35 (3rd successful NL West)
Biggest strength: The large 3 (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)
The Padres are benignant of walking a tightrope close now, with respective cardinal performers either injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) oregon not providing overmuch worth (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Closer Robert Suarez has adjacent had 2 catastrophic five-run blowups successful prevention situations. Arraez is hitting .280, but it's an bare .280 -- he's posting a career-low OBP with mediocre antiaircraft metrics and helium has been worthy 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a 3rd consecutive play wherever his OPS+ volition driblet since helium signed with the Padres, truthful helium has been worthy conscionable 0.8 WAR (at slightest his defence has been solid).
While Gavin Sheets has stepped up successful the DH role, the Padres' lineup different lacks depth: Ten antithetic players person batted astatine slightest 10 times and person antagonistic WAR. The Padres volition nary uncertainty look to code this astatine the commercialized deadline, but with Arraez and Bogaerts not large contributors, that puts each the unit connected Machado, Tatis and Merrill -- and Merrill is presently connected the concussion IL. Tatis mightiness beryllium the focal constituent here: He had a immense April with 8 location runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped successful May (.184 batting average, .626 OPS) and has been amended successful June. Let's conscionable accidental it would beryllium beneficial for the April Tatis to amusement up the remainder of the way.
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 39-37 (4th successful NL Central)
Biggest strength: A young rotation yet emerging
The Reds person travel up with respective talented young pitchers successful caller years, but person had issues keeping them steadfast oregon seeing them productive successful the aforesaid season. So far, however, the Reds' rotation ranks 3rd successful Baseball-Reference WAR, down lone the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA successful 12 starts) possibly connected his mode to a breakout play and Nick Lodolo connected his mode to a vocation precocious successful games started and innings.
They'll request to get Hunter Greene healthy, though. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL pb with 6.2 bWAR past play and was connected his mode to a akin run (2.72 ERA successful 11 starts) until helium missed 2 weeks with a groin strain, returned to marque 3 starts, and past landed backmost connected the IL with different groin strain and a sore backmost that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling successful for Greene, and the options beyond him look limited, truthful getting Greene backmost volition beryllium a indispensable successful the 2nd half.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 38-37 (4th successful NL West)
Biggest strength: Offensive depth
After starring the majors successful runs scored successful 2024, the Diamondbacks are erstwhile again averaging much than 5 runs per game, 1 of conscionable 4 teams supra that mark. Leading the way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back play much successful enactment with his rookie numbers from 2023 but with adjacent much power; Ketel Marte, with an OPS implicit .900; and slugging 3rd baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 location runs. Eight of the 9 regulars person an OPS+ implicit 100, and the apical 2 seat guys are solid-average arsenic well.
The problem: They mightiness request the discourtesy to beryllium adjacent better. Corbin Burnes is retired for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the team's lone different accordant starter with Zac Gallen's ERA connected the incorrect broadside of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting deed hard. Outside of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been terrible, ranking past successful the majors successful triumph probability added. The Diamondbacks volition person immoderate pugnacious decisions astatine the commercialized deadline and volition beryllium the astir absorbing squad to watch, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor each heading to escaped agency.
American League
Detroit Tigers
Record: 48-29 (1st successful AL Central)
Biggest strength: Tarik Skubal
The Detroit discourtesy has been overmuch improved, ranking 5th successful the majors successful runs per crippled aft finishing 19th past season. On defense, the versatility of aggregate players similar Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps manager AJ Hinch. Still, the wide spot present is reigning Cy Young Award victor Skubal -- who mightiness beryllium connected his mode to becoming the archetypal repetition victor successful the AL since Pedro Martinez successful 2000.
Skubal began the play with 2 so-so starts and mislaid some those games, but since past he's 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 -- yes, that's 8 walks successful his past 13 starts. The Tigers are 11-2 successful those games, with the 2 losses a 10th-inning decision and a 1-0 finish. When Skubal starts, the Tigers usually win.
Because of Skubal's excellence, the Tigers fertile 3rd successful the majors successful rotation ERA. Still, that astir apt overrates their depth, arsenic Hinch has been investing heavy successful openers specified arsenic Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with lone Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining connected regular rotation. With Jackson Jobe done for the twelvemonth with Tommy John surgery, Skubal's value ramps up adjacent higher.
Houston Astros
Record: 44-32 (1st successful AL West)
Biggest strength: Late-game bullpen
Houston's discourtesy has really been beauteous coagulated aft a mediocre April -- adjacent without Yordan Alvarez -- and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, but the backmost extremity of the bullpen has been the cardinal for the team's surge into archetypal place.
It begins with person Josh Hader. After a homer-prone archetypal play with the Astros successful 2024 successful which helium allowed 12 location runs successful 71 innings and mislaid 8 games, Hader is 5-1 and a cleanable 18-for-18 successful prevention opportunities. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, each with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA successful much constricted action. Overall, Houston ranks 5th successful the majors successful bullpen ERA.
In high-leverage situations, the bullpen has been adjacent better, with the lowest OPS successful the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 enactment according to TruMedia data. That show has helped the Astros to a 14-7 grounds successful one-run games and a 5-0 people successful other innings.
Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu person beardown way records. That's little existent for King, Okert and Sousa -- but thing successful their numbers screams fluke, arsenic they've combined for 109 strikeouts and conscionable 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the biggest surprise. Signed arsenic a escaped cause for conscionable $1.2 million, helium entered 2025 with a vocation locomotion complaint of 3.8 per 9 innings; abruptly he's Greg Maddux and has conscionable six walks successful 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Other than Abreu, the different 3 setup guys are left-handed, but that hasn't been an contented truthful far. This pen looks similar the existent deal.
New York Yankees
Record: 43-32 (1st successful AL East)
Biggest strength: Aaron Judge
For the archetypal 2 months of 2025, the Yankees' discourtesy was clicking connected each cylinders. Judge was starring the mode with a historical commencement to his season, putting up numbers lone Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched implicit a afloat season. But helium wasn't the lone 1 doing large damage. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 done May 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 location runs and had an OPS implicit 1.000 done May 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS implicit .900 arsenic precocious arsenic May 20.
The Yankees not lone weren't missing Juan Soto but were thriving without him. Unlike past season, erstwhile Soto was often the lone large supporting formed member, Judge abruptly had aggregate mashers astir him.
Alas, what happens erstwhile Judge goes into a slump? During a caller six-game losing streak, Judge went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and conscionable a solo location tally for his lone RBI, his mean dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and were unopen retired successful 3 consecutive games, conscionable the seventh clip that has happened successful franchise history.
It wasn't conscionable Judge. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice person each predictably regressed from their blistery starts, starring to the concern: Can this lineup people capable runs if Judge isn't superhuman each the time?
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 42-34 (2nd successful AL East)
Biggest strength: Infield offense
The Rays are a balanced squad without immoderate azygous immense strength. They bash pb the majors successful stolen bases, but that's chiefly from 2 players: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is presently successful the minors). Their wide baserunning is simply a strength, 3rd successful FanGraphs' baserunning metric, but that's a tiny spot and hardly the crushed they've surged aft sitting 5 games nether .500 connected May 19. They're a bully antiaircraft team, but they've had amended antiaircraft teams. The pitching? Good, but they've had amended seasons successful that country arsenic well.
Let's spell with their wide discourtesy from the 4 infield positions. The Rays fertile 3rd successful the majors successful OPS, 3rd successful location runs and 3rd successful runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the champion hitter successful this group, having his breakout play astatine property 27 and successful enactment for imaginable All-Star selection. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his accustomed thing, with 15 location runs, and, astir importantly, has remained healthy. Taylor Walls is the antiaircraft wizard astatine shortstop, portion Caballero splits clip determination successful his inferior role.
Then there's Junior Caminero. Remember him? Last year's hyped imaginable doesn't crook 22 until July and entered the play with conscionable 213 sheet appearances, but it feels arsenic if everyone forgot astir him heading into 2025 aft helium didn't instantly teardrop up the majors arsenic a rookie. He remains a flawed violative subordinate with an OBP conscionable northbound of .300 and is connected gait to interruption Jim Rice's single-season grounds for grounding into treble plays, but the powerfulness has arrived with 17 location runs -- and he's been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since May 23 with 9 location runs and 28 RBIs successful 26 games. That included a 4-for-5 crippled Wednesday arsenic the Rays rallied from an 8-0 shortage to bushed the Orioles 12-8. That sounds similar the Rays squad that made the playoffs 5 consecutive years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and susceptible of beating you successful antithetic ways.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 40-35 (3rd successful AL East)
Biggest strength: Lowest strikeout complaint successful majors
We're digging present to find determination the Jays excel. They are a precise bully antiaircraft squad with either Daulton Varsho oregon Myles Straw successful halfway (Varsho is connected the injured database astatine the moment), Andres Gimenez astatine second, and Ernie Clement astatine third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the champion antiaircraft metrics of his career. The pitching surely hasn't been a strength. They've been outhomered 101 to 77, truthful powerfulness hasn't been their game. Indeed, the Jays are 5 games implicit .500 adjacent though they've been outscored by 14 runs.
That makes them a hard squad to read. They're 7-13 successful blowout games -- those decided by 5 oregon much runs -- and that's usually a surefire indicator of a atrocious team. Good teams don't get blown retired much often than they stroke retired their opponents. The Jays person frankincense done good successful adjacent games, and 1 related origin mightiness beryllium their quality to enactment the bat connected the ball. They bash person 5 walk-off wins (as opposed to 2 walk-off losses) and they're 5-2 successful extra-inning contests. In the bigger picture, possibly the interaction complaint volition yet crook into much discourtesy if they tin crook much of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are conscionable 17th successful the majors successful isolated power). With conscionable 9 location runs, Guerrero is surely the superior feline to ticker successful this area.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 40-37 (4th successful AL East)
Biggest strength: Garrett Crochet
What, you expected this to accidental squad chemistry oregon something? The committedness of youth? No, with Rafael Devers successful San Francisco and Alex Bregman inactive connected the injured list, Crochet is the reply here. Where would this rotation beryllium without him? Let's bash immoderate math:
Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 successful prime starts
Other starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 successful prime starts
Now, possibly those "others" volition improve. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a combined 0-9, and Houck is present connected the IL, Newcomb is connected the Athletics and Fitts is successful the minors. Brayan Bello has been amended his past fewer starts, but Boston is inactive looking for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even if the young presumption players commencement hitting better, the Red Sox are going to request much than conscionable Crochet to stabilize the rotation.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 38-36 (2nd successful AL West)
Biggest strength: The Big Dumper
Here's a stat that mightiness astonishment you: The Mariners are 3rd successful the majors successful roadworthy OPS. Is this really a bully violative team, lone to person that bully discourtesy masked by playing fractional their games successful a location parkland wherever discourtesy goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 connected the road, trailing lone the Cubs and Yankees successful OPS. At home, however, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 -- 24th successful the majors successful OPS.
The Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the starting rotation struggling with injuries, the bullpen a small bladed down standout person Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez much "meh" than awesome, Raleigh has felt similar a one-man amusement astatine times. He leads the majors with 29 location runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails lone Judge successful OPS. He has played successful 73 of Seattle's 74 games and does his champion harm erstwhile helium starts down the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 location runs person travel arsenic a catcher. The grounds for location runs by a superior catcher is Salvador Perez's 48 successful 2021, but lone 33 of those came arsenic a catcher. The grounds for location runs deed portion catching is Javy Lopez's 42 successful 2003. Raleigh's 180 wRC+ presently sits 2nd highest for a superior catcher, down lone Mike Piazza's 183 successful 1997.
All that undersells however Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He's been clutch arsenic well, ranking successful the apical 3 successful the majors successful precocious metrics specified arsenic triumph probability added, situational wins added and title WPA. Oh, and he's hitting .257/.358/.614 astatine home. Judge mightiness person MVP each but locked up already, but don't archer that to the Big Dumper.