What to expect in the upcoming NATO summit: Trump, spending, Ukraine, Iran

The NATO acme volition beryllium held astatine The Hague successful the Netherlands from June 24-25 and a scope of antiaircraft issues are expected to beryllium addressed, including expanding nationalist spending commitments, assistance to Ukraine, emerging threats from Iran and relations with the U.S. nether President Donald Trump.

This volition beryllium the president’s archetypal transatlantic acme since returning to the White House successful January, and each eyes are connected Trump, who has not shied distant from explosive moments with U.S. allies, including astatine erstwhile NATO summits. 

Following Saturday's onslaught by the U.S. against Iran's atomic facilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to go 1 of the starring issues.

Here’s what’s connected the agenda:

SPENDING

UKRAINE

IRAN, RUSSIA, CHINA

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President Donald Trump speaks to the property pursuing a White House gathering with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte successful Washington, D.C., connected Thursday, March 13, 2025. (Pool via AP)

SPENDING

In a connection released 1 week up of the summit, NATO said the "Heads of State and Government are expected to hold [to] a caller defence concern plan" aft months of speculation the confederation could summation its spending commitments from 2% of a nation’s GDP to 5%.

The conception was archetypal pushed by Trump aft helium won the election, and contempt the sticker daze of what that could mean for not lone the 8 nations not yet hitting the 2% commitment, but besides the U.S. which presently spends 3.38%, galore European leaders got connected board. 

Fox News Digital has not been capable to corroborate if NATO volition summation its commitment to 5%, and immoderate sources with cognition of the discussions person suggested that fig could beryllium person to 3.5% implicit a play of up to 10 years. On Friday, it was announced that Spain was fixed an opt-out of paying 5%, instead, it volition wage 2.1%, according to a study successful the Associated Press.

"The existent absorption volition beryllium the caller defence spending target," Peter Rough, elder chap and manager for the Center connected Europe and Eurasia with the Hudson Institute, told Fox News Digital. "5% of gross home merchandise arsenic a top-line fig – however, lone 3.5% indispensable beryllium devoted to hard defense.

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Ukrainian marines bid successful municipality warfare techniques successful bilateral subject exercises betwixt the United States and Ukraine, and see troops from a assortment of NATO and non-NATO countries connected Sept. 16, 2014, adjacent Yavorov, Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed Kyiv's involvement successful joining NATO has been a starring crushed for his invasion. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

"And 1.5% tin number toward adjacent categories, similar cybersecurity oregon infrastructure for subject mobility," helium explained up of his grounds to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding the NATO summit.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has been an ardent protagonist of expanding defence spending, peculiarly arsenic Europe continues to look its top menace since World War II.

Earlier this month, up of a NATO ministerial gathering that served arsenic a walk-up to the NATO summit, Rutte said leaders "will fortify our deterrence and defence by agreeing ambitious caller capableness targets."

He has elaborate rocket defense, long-range onslaught capabilities and deterrence arsenic main priorities, which comes not lone arsenic Russia continues its assertive warfare successful Ukraine, but arsenic threats levied by a nuclearly ambitious Iran besides escalate.

UKRAINE-RUSSIA PEACE TALKS YIELD NO CEASEFIRE, ZELENSKYY WARNS PUTIN SHOULD NOT BE 'REWARDED'

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds a quality league successful Kyiv, Ukraine, connected May 13, 2025.  (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

UKRAINE

The contented of defending Ukraine is erstwhile again expected to beryllium a apical docket point and has been a driving unit successful motivating the NATO confederation to drastically summation spending, which nations nether the confederation archetypal did pursuing Russia’s 2022 penetration of Ukraine. 

However, fixed Trump’s accordant propulsion for accrued NATO antiaircraft spending, his threats to retreat troops from Europe and his insistence that Kyiv not beryllium allowed to articulation the 32-member alliance, Ukraine’s defence whitethorn not play arsenic large of a front-and-center relation this year. 

"There won’t beryllium astir arsenic overmuch absorption connected Ukraine arsenic during the past fewer summits," argued Rough. "The White House is laser-focused connected the defence concern pledge, and nary of the different allies privation to stone the boat."

While nations similar France, the UK and Germany person taken much nonstop enactment positions and ardently pledged their continued enactment for Ukraine, they person besides toed the enactment erstwhile it comes to managing transatlantic relationships with Washington nether Trump.

"I’d expect a short, concise acme declaration with immoderate notation of Ukraine but nary of the ornate connection that characterized past communiqués," Rough added. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to be portions of the summit’s activities, similar the opening dinner, though helium is not yet confirmed to be immoderate authoritative NATO meetings. 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, bottommost center, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, bottommost 2nd right, and different satellite leaders be a antiaircraft acme astatine Lancaster House successful London connected Sunday, March 2, 2025. (Neil Hall/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images )

Reporting suggested Trump could instrumentality contented with having Zelenskyy astatine a NATO lawsuit amid seemingly stalled ceasefire negotiations with Russia – which person begun to instrumentality a backseat amid the strife betwixt Israel and Iran.

Trump has not held backmost astatine erstwhile NATO summits erstwhile it came to the conflict implicit Russia, including successful 2018 erstwhile helium openly clashed with then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel erstwhile helium accused Berlin of being "totally controlled by Russia" and claimed it was a "bad happening for NATO."

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IRAN, RUSSIA, CHINA

With the U.S. launching Operation Midnight Hammer against 3 of Iran's atomic facilities astatine Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan connected Saturday, Iran is acceptable to beryllium 1 of the main topics for discussions by the NATO members arsenic tensions with the authorities successful Tehran rise.

Map of Iran atomic facilities attacked by the US (Fox News)

Additionally, Russia continues to pose the top menace to Europe, not lone arsenic its warfare ambitions proceed successful Ukraine, but arsenic quality agencies progressively pass that "Russia’s postwar absorption volition beryllium connected NATO."

Rough, successful his grounds to the Senate, pointed to findings by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Agency that said earlier this period that "We spot that NATO’s corporate defence committedness is to beryllium tested…We are precise sure, and we person quality grounds to backmost this up, that Ukraine is lone 1 measurement connected Russia’s way towards the West."

Danish quality issued akin warnings earlier this twelvemonth and said that should it find the close opportunity, Russia could motorboat hostile operations against a neighboring federation wrong six months of regrouping aft a ceasefire successful Ukraine. 

Rutte highlighted the severity of the nonstop menace Russia poses and said earlier this period during a travel to the UK that if nations bash not instrumentality earnestly the request to put successful the 5% defence spending push, past "you amended larn to talk Russian."

The alliances Moscow has cemented during its warfare successful Ukraine person besides brought to the forefront a precise existent menace to the West arsenic China, North Korea and Iran person each played a large relation successful fueling Russia’s warfare machine. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's person Kim Jong Un, left, conscionable for a invited ceremonial successful the Kim Il Sung Square successful Pyongyang, North Korea, connected Wednesday, June 19. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

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China, portion it claims neutrality successful the war, has staunchly supplied Russia with physics components captious to modern warfare. Iran has supplied drones and method know-how, portion North Korea has not lone provided munitions and subject equipment, but boots connected the crushed for the war. 

While China and Russia person repeatedly committed their concern arsenic agreed against the West, North Korea has go progressively emboldened and been provided technical know-how for rocket development successful speech for its support, which poses a important menace to not lone partners successful the East, but Western interests. 

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Rough warned that "Russian President Vladimir Putin remains implacably opposed to the U.S.-European partnership, which helium seeks to undermine astatine each opportunity."

Additionally, Rough, citing U.S. subject officials successful Europe, said it would beryllium a mistake to region U.S. troops from Europe amid these progressively agreed threats against the West.

Troop agreements, corporate defence and U.S. engagement successful deterring Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are each expected to beryllium a large constituent of discussion. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.