Why the Maple Leafs shouldn't re-sign Mitch Marner -- and what they should do instead

The 2025 offseason includes a bladed radical of high-level escaped agents with an exploding wage headdress atmosphere, meaning Brian Burke's "the biggest mistakes get made connected July 1" credo is apt to beryllium truer than ever.

This year, the escaped cause generating the astir attraction is Mitch Marner. There's a important spread down him to Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser and Aaron Ekblad. It's a stark opposition to July 1, 2026, erstwhile it's imaginable that Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor and John Carlson whitethorn beryllium each available. Some (if not all) whitethorn widen with their existent clubs, but the database of perchance disposable players a twelvemonth from present should marque GMs deliberation doubly earlier signing a bloated declaration connected July 1, 2025.

The proviso of invaluable players successful 2025 is short, meaning it is highly apt for overpayments connected contracts to occur. To triumph the Stanley Cup, teams request players to overperform their contracts and debar inefficient contracts of immoderate kind. There is merit to the tax-free authorities teams having advantage, but galore of the apical players overperform the delta betwixt their declaration worth and the "tax-free" discount.

As an example, Sam Reinhart apt would person garnered a $10 cardinal mean yearly worth connected the unfastened market, portion taking $8.625 cardinal to stay with the Florida Panthers. Reinhart's worth according to my exemplary is person to $12.6 million, meaning Florida is getting an other $2.6 cardinal successful worth connected apical of the "tax discount." Similar situations beryllium for Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.

In non-tax-free states, elite players similar Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis and Nico Hischier are overperforming their contracts. Perhaps the champion illustration is successful Edmonton wherever Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman are significantly overperforming their declaration values. Draisaitl's mammoth declaration is inactive expected to beryllium businesslike erstwhile it kicks in. For Evan Bouchard, immoderate declaration with an AAV beneath $9.5 cardinal would beryllium considered efficient.

According to reports, Mitch Marner is expected to garner $14 cardinal per year, portion an businesslike declaration would beryllium person to $12 million. Sam Bennett, different subordinate represented by Darren Ferris, is rumored to beryllium seeking successful the vicinity of $9 cardinal AAV. That would mean a subordinate with a vocation precocious of 51 points would person a declaration connected par with an elite second-line center, portion producing similar a low-end second-liner oregon high-end third-liner. While determination are morganatic arguments for Marner's regular-season worth and Bennett's playoff value, immoderate squad hoping to contend tin sick spend to wage those players 10% supra their value.

Given Toronto's headdress structure, extending Marner is improbable to effect successful semipermanent success, due to the fact that it would beryllium prohibitive to balancing the lineup. If Marner wants to play connected a contending squad and win, declaration ratio matters. If we use the aforesaid ratio of the upcoming Draisaitl contract, a comparable that Marner's campy is using, thing much than $12 cardinal would handicap a team's quality to contend -- and that is provided Marner performs to Draisaitl's level successful the playoffs, which has yet to occur. Marner would request to motion for astir $10 cardinal AAV to person a invaluable declaration akin to the likes of Reinhart, Kucherov and Kaprizov.

It has ne'er been clearer that a large shakeup is needed successful Toronto. While determination were aggregate nixed trades that would person allowed Toronto to marque important changes implicit the past fewer years, Toronto is near with the world that a superstar caliber subordinate volition apt beryllium mislaid for nothing. However, Toronto cannot spend to widen Marner connected an inefficient contract, particularly erstwhile playoff performances are considered. Here's however they should proceed instead.

WITH THE CONTRACTS for Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs person plentifulness of country to maneuver. They cannot regenerate the worth of Marner with 1 player, but they tin redistribute the wealthiness passim the lineup.

Tavares is apt to widen successful Toronto, and the rumored AAV is astir $5 million, which is an businesslike declaration for a middle-six center, 1 who scored 38 goals successful 2024-25. The Leafs should debar doing a span woody for restricted escaped cause Matthew Knies, alternatively opting for a semipermanent woody successful the vicinity of $8.5 cardinal AAV. Combined, that costs little than Marner's ask, and the combined worth of Knies and Tavares outweighs the worth of Marner.

Toronto should expect Easton Cowan to lend successful a middle-six relation connected his entry-level declaration adjacent season. It is astir imperative that Toronto GM Brad Treliving commercialized 2 of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi and Nick Robertson. The headdress abstraction this frees up could beryllium utilized to motion Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand oregon Pius Suter, each of whom supply importantly much worth successful elevated roles.

That acceptable of restructures would let Toronto to person 3 productive lines. The Panthers' 3rd enactment was the quality successful the Leafs' bid loss, and that is due to the fact that businesslike contracts astatine the apical of Florida's roster allowed for a much balanced attack to the lineup.

Speaking of the Panthers, determination are rumblings the Leafs person involvement successful Sam Bennett. While it is casual to recognize why, let's retrieve the subordinate Bennett was earlier Florida. In Treliving's anterior relation arsenic Flames GM, helium traded Bennett retired of Calgary for spare parts due to the fact that helium was incapable to find his game. Bennett is simply a cleanable acceptable successful Florida, though overmuch of his worth comes from the extracurricular activities, arsenic opposed to violative production. If those extracurricular activities were to beryllium much heavy punished, they would suffer their value.

Consider that Tavares notched 38 goals and 74 points this play and is apt to motion for astir $5 million. Bennett notched a vocation precocious of 51 points this season. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a declaration worthy 1.5 times Tavares' until helium is Tavares' property -- having produced 0.68 points per crippled successful Florida and 0.48 points per crippled implicit his vocation -- would beryllium catastrophic.

Florida is perfectly close to not privation to wage much than $7 cardinal per twelvemonth for Bennett, which would already beryllium somewhat bloated. Given Florida's occurrence implicit the past fewer years, the Maple Leafs would beryllium omniscient to travel those signals. A $7.5 cardinal AAV is inefficient but manageable if the Leafs judge Bennett's extracurriculars won't gully much attraction successful a marketplace wherever the hockey squad is first, 2nd and 3rd successful coverage. Should Bennett's campy propulsion further, the Leafs would beryllium amended disconnected looking elsewhere. Targeting Pius Suter oregon Matt Duchene connected July 1 -- and orchestrating a commercialized for Mason Marchment with Dallas -- successful a theoretical illustration of much balanced approach.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH circumstantial players are signed oregon added successful trade, the Maple Leafs request to equilibrium their guardant extent and refrain from signing inefficient contracts. There are excessively galore connected the books, and the Leafs would bash good to extricate themselves from a mates of them. The champion teams don't contend due to the fact that of 1 oregon 2 players; that's existent adjacent of the Oilers (though it surely helps having McDavid and Draisaitl).

Instead, the champion teams contend twelvemonth aft twelvemonth due to the fact that their champion players outperform their contracts, and the extent successful the lineup provides prime minutes owed to absorption being capable to get amended players that supply balance. Current examples are Florida's 3rd line, on with Edmonton's extent that includes Corey Perry, Jake Walman and Connor Brown. Because of the businesslike contracts for Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, Dallas was capable to get a superstar successful Mikko Rantanen.

Toronto needs to beryllium ruthless -- the mode that the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their consecutive Stanley Cup runs and the mode the Vegas Golden Knights person been for their full existence.

If a subordinate isn't consenting to motion for what the squad needs to beryllium successful, past they aren't going to beryllium a Leaf. Significant commercialized extortion for anyone extracurricular the top-six forwards oregon top-four defensemen needs to beryllium a happening of the past. Eight- oregon 10-team no-trade clauses for third-line players is manageable, but the days of giving bottom-pair defenders and the likes of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Reaves immoderate level of commercialized extortion indispensable end. They cannot handicap their quality to marque moves by providing commercialized extortion to players who are easy replaceable each summer.

For the Leafs to win, they request to enactment focused successful their pursuit of declaration efficiency, and that apt means losing axenic endowment successful the short-term to make a much balanced, semipermanent attack that has worked truthful good for different clubs.