Why the Panthers will win the Stanley Cup (again)

I privation to spot Connor McDavid rise the Stanley Cup.

I privation to spot each that regular-season hardware -- 5 scoring titles, 3 Hart trophies arsenic league MVP, the four-time NHLPA astir outstanding subordinate -- metaphorically traded for a Stanley Cup ring, similar erstwhile you crook successful smaller prizes for a larger 1 during a carnival game. I privation him rewarded for his 10 years of trying to volition the Edmonton Oilers to their archetypal Stanley Cup since 1990. Those fans merit different party, with McDavid arsenic the maestro of ceremonies.

I privation to spot him permanently overwrite those images of himself arsenic an bare husk aft Game 7 past season, his psyche seemingly drained from his assemblage by a bid truthful emotionally erratic that helium was voted the playoffs' astir invaluable player moments aft losing successful the title finale.

I privation to spot the laziest counterargument to McDavid's presumption arsenic a hockey deity -- that helium "never won the Cup" -- rendered immaterial, arsenic it yet was for players specified arsenic Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I privation that cathartic shriek erstwhile helium picks up the chalice for the archetypal time. The king deserves his crowning moment.

Unfortunately, what I privation and what the Florida Panthers are consenting to springiness McDavid aren't astatine each aligned. They deprived him of his Stanley Cup triumph past season. They've going to bash it again successful this Stanley Cup Final rematch, contempt the sportsbooks and the majority of pundits believing that it's McDavid's moment.

Here are 5 reasons the Panthers are apt headed for a repeat:

Florida is amended than past season's Cup winner

It's undeniable that the Oilers are a amended squad than they were past season.

Edmonton's roster is deeper and much cohesive than the 2024 Western Conference champions. They're scoring much (4.06 goals per game) than past season. Their 5-on-5 defence is remarkably better: 1.89 goals per 60 minutes, down from 2.55 past postseason.

Perhaps the astir awesome portion of the Oilers' antiaircraft crippled has been the quality to adjacent retired games -- witnesser their changeable suppression successful the past 3 wins implicit the Dallas Stars. They were a minus-6 successful the 3rd play past postseason; they're a plus-11 this play done 16 games. The lone downgrade year-over-year is their punishment kill, which has fixed up 16 goals successful 16 games portion it gave up 4 successful 25 games past season. One assumes the instrumentality of Mattias Ekholm volition help.

But the Panthers are besides better.

Like, a batch better. Which is scary.

Florida is simply a plus-27 successful extremity differential done 17 games, aft finishing astatine a plus-11 past season. The Panthers are scoring much (3.88) and giving up little (2.29). At 5-on-5, they've gone from 2.39 goals per 60 minutes past play to 3.53 goals per 60 this season. Their powerfulness play is up twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth -- thing to support successful caput if the Oilers support struggling connected the PK -- and the punishment termination is astir the same.

They besides upgraded successful a fewer roster spots during the season, chiefly with the additions of Seth Jones to their 2nd defence pairing and Brad Marchand to their 3rd line.

Last season, Florida paired Niko Mikkola with Brandon Montour, a bully puck-moving defenseman who parlayed his occurrence with Florida into a escaped cause woody with the Seattle Kraken. The Panthers registered 49% of the changeable attempts and averaged 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes erstwhile that brace was connected the ice. Mikkola's pairing with Jones is simply a marked upgrade: 56% of the changeable attempts, 4.14 goals for and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes astatine 5-on-5. The duo has an expected goals against of 1.48 per 60 minutes -- Montour and Mikkola were astatine 2.37 past postseason.

That's not conscionable the summation of Jones to the Panthers' apical four. Mikkola has leveled up into thing special, defending amended and flashing a astonishing magnitude of violative velocity for a 6-foot-6 defender nicknamed "The Condor."

"Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he's everywhere," Marchand said. "I don't deliberation helium gets capable credit. He's highly pugnacious to play against. Then erstwhile you play with him, and you recognize that he's not flashy, but helium closes truthful quick, he's ever connected apical of guys and he's physical."

The summation of Marchand has besides made the Panthers a much unsafe squad than past play -- and not lone successful presumption of what's said connected the crystal during games. The 3rd enactment of their Cup-winning squad was anchored by halfway Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen, a coagulated duo that skated with a assortment of wingers. Putting Marchand with those 2 aft acquiring him astatine the commercialized deadline from Boston improved the squad successful respective ways.

Marchand, Lundell and Luostarinen person earned 53% of the changeable attempts astatine 5-on-5. They mean 4.2 goals and 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 points successful 17 games. Luostarinen has 13 points successful 17 games. Lundell has 5 goals and 7 assists, and continues to springiness this squad preposterous halfway extent arsenic benignant of a "Baby Barkov" for the Panthers.

By solidifying that enactment with Marchand, it allows the Panthers to support their apical six solidified. One duo is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The different duo is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They shuttle Carter Verhaeghe, 1 of the playoffs' astir clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics darling, betwixt those lines connected the wing. Both combinations person yielded results for Florida.

But beyond what's happening connected the crystal -- oregon possibly arsenic a catalyst for it -- the Panthers are playing with the poise and assurance of a champion, fortified by a impervious of conception that comes lone aft a Stanley Cup skate.

Bobrovsky vs. Skinner

These 2 goalies person had akin postseason journeys: Inconsistent and middling results aboriginal successful the playoffs, followed by ascendant runs that began successful the mediate of the 2nd circular and carried done to the Stanley Cup Final.

"Middling" is astir apt putting it kindly for Skinner's playoffs, wherever helium was benched successful the archetypal circular and got backmost into the playoffs lone erstwhile Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. But from Game 4 against Vegas to the Cup Final, he's been scorching hot: 6-1, .944 prevention percentage, 1.41 goals-against mean and 3 shutouts.

play

0:28

Stuart Skinner makes an unbelievable diving save

Stuart Skinner makes a beauteous instrumentality prevention to support the crippled tied 2-2 for the Oilers vs. the Golden Knights.

Bobrovsky wasn't each that large aboriginal either until a Game 4 shutout against the Maple Leafs. After that, helium went 7-2 with a .944 prevention percentage, a 1.34 goals-against mean and 2 shutouts.

The Florida netminder had a chaotic Stanley Cup Final past season, but ended it with a 23-save effort astatine location successful Game 7 to clinch the Cup. It was the benignant of crippled that reinforced the "Playoff Bob" legend that the Oilers volition nary uncertainty perceive astir again this season.

Averaged out, Skinner and Bobrovsky were some astatine replacement levels for the totality of the playoffs according to Stathletes. Over their past 5 games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved supra expected) has been amended analytically than Skinner (1.89).

Skinner is playing good capable wherever helium shouldn't suffer this bid for Edmonton, which is truly each they tin inquire from him and Pickard. But Bobrovsky, assuming he's successful "Playoff Bob" mode, tin triumph this bid for Florida. That's the difference.

The Panthers are roadworthy warriors

The astir important alteration year-over-year betwixt these teams is that the Oilers person home-ice vantage this time. Unfortunately, that mightiness play into the Panthers' hands.

Florida is 8-2 connected the road, which is tied for the sixth-best winning percent successful NHL postseason past (minimum 8 roadworthy games). Their 4.80 goals per crippled would marque them the highest-scoring roadworthy playoff squad successful Stanley Cup past (again, minimum 8 roadworthy games). That plus-27 extremity differential successful the postseason? It has each travel connected the road, wherever they've scored 48 times and fixed up 21 goals. They're adjacent (18 for and 18 against) astatine home.

"It's america against the world. That benignant of feeling," defenseman Gustav Forsling said.

There are 2 wide reasons for the Panthers' roadworthy dominance. The archetypal is that Florida is astatine its implicit champion erstwhile it trims the flourish retired of its violative crippled to go a blunt instrument.

"Our mindset is conscionable play arsenic elemental arsenic we can," Verhaeghe said. "Get the puck deep, get connected their defence and forecheck, which is our strength."

The different reason: The Panthers perfectly emotion to suck the vigor retired of a roadworthy arena and nonstop the opposing fans location feeling miserable.

"It's amusive erstwhile you're connected the roadworthy and it goes quiet. It feels similar we're doing our job," Verhaeghe said.

play

0:37

Fortenbaugh's champion stake for Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup rematch

Joe Fortenbaugh explains wherefore he's taking the Panthers to repetition arsenic champions against the Oilers.

Aleksander Barkov

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl tin exert their volition connected a period, a crippled and a series. McDavid is coming disconnected a bid against Dallas successful which helium had 9 points successful 5 games, for example.

Florida has 1 of those guys, too. Barkov doesn't get mentioned with the aforesaid breathless praise arsenic the Oilers' duo oregon Auston Matthews oregon Nathan MacKinnon oregon Sidney Crosby. He has breached 90 points lone erstwhile successful his career, though his points-per-game complaint betwixt 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him 12th among each skaters, close betwixt Crosby and Cale Makar. He's not the astir vocal guy, nor does helium person the astir boisterous property -- Panthers manager Paul Maurice joked that Barkov is "not doing a podcast erstwhile he's done [playing]."

All of those players mentioned are Hart Trophy guys. Barkov is simply a Selke Trophy guy, having been named arsenic the NHL's champion antiaircraft forward for the 3rd clip successful his vocation this week. You can't beryllium both. Since the champion antiaircraft guardant grant was archetypal handed retired successful 1977-78, lone 2 players person ever won a Hart and a Selke astatine immoderate constituent successful their careers: Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke. As of this season, the highest Barkov ever placed for MVP was sixth successful 2020-21.

But he's conscionable arsenic overmuch of a crippled changer and bid shifter arsenic immoderate different superstar, lone his quality to bash truthful sometimes starts successful the antiaircraft zone. Against Edmonton past postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov connected the crystal during those 7 games, earning the bulk of the changeable attempts and scoring chances.

He tin make thing retired of thing with his puck power and ample frame.

Witness the bid clincher against Carolina:

play

0:53

Verhaeghe puts Panthers backmost successful front

Carter Verhaeghe fires location a big-time extremity to springiness the Panthers a pb precocious successful the 3rd period.

Rodrigues said that extremity "speaks to who [Barkov] is arsenic a person" aft Game 5.

"He's truthful even-keeled," Rodrigues said. "Doesn't get excessively high, doesn't get excessively low, and conscionable erstwhile games get aggravated and precise emotional, he's capable to play his crippled and conscionable bash the close things implicit and implicit again."

Which brings america to possibly the astir salient constituent successful this prediction.

They'll instrumentality what Edmonton gives them

This mightiness beryllium hyperbolic but that's ne'er stopped maine before: I deliberation the Panthers are fundamentally built to beryllium an Oilers countermeasure.

They tin people with the Oilers. They tin support arsenic bully arsenic immoderate squad successful the NHL. They person impactful prima players and effectual relation players. They're unfazed by chaotic roadworthy environments. They're well-coached. They play with a physicality, swagger and antagonism. They tin crockery it retired and instrumentality it and past crockery it retired again.

But they besides person that peculiar trait shared with different large NHL champions, which is that they're consenting to triumph connected their presumption oregon connected immoderate presumption the opponents volition acceptable for them.

Think astir the Western Conference finals. Think astir however the Dallas Stars felt similar they had toppled into an abyss erstwhile the Oilers would people the archetypal goal. Think astir however they could nonstop lone 4 shots connected Skinner successful the 3rd play of must-win games, frustrated to nary extremity that they couldn't play their game.

The Panthers don't get flustered. They don't suffer their assurance oregon person their anticipation extinguished if things aren't to their liking. They maximize the opportunities they earn. They're meticulous and diligent wherever others are harried and panicked.

Carolina was a stingy antiaircraft team. The Panthers waited for their chances to pounce, and erstwhile they did, the games changed dramatically. In each of their wins implicit the Hurricanes successful the Eastern Conference finals, the Panthers scored aggregate goals wrong 4 minutes of each other. Florida is the astir "blood successful the water" squad successful the NHL. In Game 3, it was 5 goals successful 9:08. In Game 5, it was 3 goals successful 4:36.

"We spell into the game, we cognize precisely what we request to do," Barkov said. "The assurance level is precocious and everyone's having amusive close now."

play

0:36

Panthers instrumentality attraction of Hurricanes successful 5 to beforehand to Stanley Cup Final

The Florida Panthers triumph 5-3 successful a back-and-forth Game 5 conflict vs. the Hurricanes to beforehand to their 3rd consecutive Stanley Cup Final.

Prediction: Panthers successful six

GM Bill Zito and his unit person constructed a Stanley Cup champion whose halfway players person the postseason competence and thrust that different teams desperately effort to import into their lineups astatine the deadline each season. The Panthers don't request an infusion of "rings successful the room." They astir each person them now. Playoff self-assurance is simply a nucleotide successful their hockey DNA.

Their "win astatine each costs" benignant has earned them detractors, but it has besides earned them 3 consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

Based connected the Panthers' caller play and their advantages successful this matchup, it'll besides gain them a 2nd consecutive skate with Stanley.

And if I'm wrong, past Connor McDavid has his title moment. Which would beryllium awesome, too.