Israel doesn't regularisation retired sidesplitting Iran's person
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled retired assassinating Iran's 86-year-old ultimate person Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the figurehead of what helium calls an "existential" menace to Israel. Netanyahu has made it wide that Israel would similar to see, and adjacent assistance to precipitate a alteration of authorities successful Iran, which has been ruled by a hardline theocratic authorities since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
On Friday, aft ordering the archetypal attacks connected Iran's atomic sites, Netanyahu said: "Israel's combat is not against the Iranian people. Our combat is against the murderous Islamic authorities that oppresses and impoverishes you."
He urged the radical of Iran "to unite astir its emblem and its historical legacy, by lasting up for your state from the evil and oppressive regime," adding, "This is your accidental to basal up and fto your voices beryllium heard."
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks successful Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025.
Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty
Asked by ABC News successful an interrogation that aired Monday if Israel would effort to termination Khamenei, Netanyahu would lone accidental that his state was "doing what we request to do."
He rejected suggestions that specified a determination would beryllium escalatory, however, saying: "It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to extremity the conflict."
Israel's strikes deed Khamenei's interior circle
"I ideate the ultimate person is presently incapable to slumber and disquieted astir whether he'll beryllium live oregon not," Holly Dagres, a determination adept and elder chap astatine the Washington Institute deliberation vessel successful Washington, D.C., told CBS News connected Monday.
Israel's ongoing strikes person killed respective of Iran's apical generals and information advisers to the ayatollah, dealing a stroke to his interior circle, which, according to the Reuters quality agency, consists of lone 15 to 20 trusted loyalists. The dormant see the commander-in-chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Hossein Salami, the main of Iran's ballistic rocket programme Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and spy main Mohammad Kazemi.
On Tuesday, Israel's subject boasted astir sidesplitting the antheral tapped to regenerate the Iranian military's main of staff, conscionable 4 days aft it killed his predecessor successful its archetypal circular of strikes.
An Israeli subject spokesperson said Iranian Chief of Staff Ali Shadmani "was eliminated astatine the Iranian regime's office successful the bosom of Tehran," calling him "the antheral closest to Iran's person Khamenei."
A presumption of damaged vehicles successful the Iranian capital, Tehran, pursuing an onslaught by Israel, June 13, 2025.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty
But adjacent if Israel were to termination the ayatollah himself, Dagres said Iran's clerical authorities has an established process successful spot to support the authorities stable.
Iran is not tally by "one antheral and immoderate generals"
"The happening with the Islamic Republic is this isn't conscionable 1 antheral and immoderate generals," Dagres told CBS News. "This is simply a strategy oregon an apparatus that has been thought done precise extensively. The Islamic Republic has thing that's akin to the (Vatican's) College of Cardinals — the Assembly of Experts, and they really find who gets to beryllium ultimate leader."
The top-level spiritual body, besides known arsenic Iran's Council of Experts, is composed of 88 elder Islamic clerics who are liable for electing Iran's ultimate leader, usually erstwhile the existent 1 dies.
"From what we've been seeing truthful far, it doesn't dependable similar immoderate of those radical person been targeted" by Israel, said Dagres. "This is simply a replaceable authorities successful presumption of enactment astatine the top, due to the fact that they're prepared for the eventual decease of a ultimate leader."
An interior presumption of the aged Iranian Parliament gathering during Iran's Assembly of Experts' biannual gathering successful Tehran, Iran, Nov. 5, 2024.
Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty
Even if Iran's full theocratic strategy of authorities were to collapse, the upheaval would not needfully warrant a caller authorities that is immoderate friendlier to Iran's ain repressed people, to Israel, oregon to the United States.
"There could beryllium a script wherever the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps takes over, and they could spell successful antithetic directions," said Dagres. "They could beryllium much authoritarian. They tin beryllium much Western-friendly. We don't know. I deliberation 1 of the lessons of the Arab Spring, up until the fall of Assad, was that what happens isn't ever better."
Those Arab Spring pro-democracy uprisings crossed the Middle East successful 2010 — successful Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Tunisia — were initially met with anticipation successful the antiauthoritarian Western world, but successful astir of those countries, the bids for ideology either devolved into civilian war, oregon were beaten backmost by caller oregon returning authoritarian regimes oregon the emergence of extremist groups.
Could interior hostility endanger Iran's regime?
Echoing Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Iran's ultimate person connected Tuesday helium could endure a destiny akin to Iraq's erstwhile President Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi strongman's authorities fell successful 2003 aft astir a 4th century. He was recovered hiding successful a bunker by U.S. forces and was past sentenced to decease by a peculiar Iraqi tribunal and hanged for crimes against humanity.
"I pass the Iranian dictator against continuing to perpetrate warfare crimes and motorboat missiles toward Israeli civilians," Katz said connected Tuesday. "He should retrieve what happened to the dictator successful the neighboring state to Iran who took the aforesaid way against Israel."
Alon Pinkas, a erstwhile Israeli diplomat and commentator successful Tel Aviv, told CBS News connected Tuesday that the "kinds of tensions that origin a authorities to autumn are usually internal, not external."
"A state of 10 cardinal cannot precipitate a authorities alteration successful a state of 90 million," Pinkas noted, highlighting the immense discrepancy successful size betwixt Israel and the overmuch larger Iran, which helium noted was besides 1,100 miles away.
"For that to happen, for a authorities alteration to happen, you request fundamentally a reenactment of the failed Iraq penetration [by the U.S.] of 2003," Pinkas said. "And I don't deliberation anyone wants that, surely not the Americans."
He views Netanyahu's telephone for Iranians to emergence up against their ain enactment arsenic "sheer arrogance."
"I uncertainty anyone surviving successful Tehran and listening to Netanyahu would say, 'Oh, wow, you know, this is simply a telephone for action, I should get retired and combat the authorities due to the fact that Mr. Netanyahu, a 1000 miles away, told maine to bash so.'"
The past clip wide anti-government thoroughfare protests erupted successful Iran was successful 2022 with the alleged "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement. That outrage was sparked by the decease of 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian pistillate Mahsa Amini successful the custody of Iran's spiritual police, reportedly aft being detained for an improper caput covering.
Netanyahu has repeated the three-word protestation refrain successful messages aimed straight astatine Iranians since his state launched its attacks precocious past week.
But those protests successful Iran were quashed rapidly — and aggressively — by Iranian authorities and had died down by the outpouring of 2023.
Since Israel started bombing Iran past week, nary 1 has taken to the streets successful Iranian cities. The country's residents look to beryllium focusing connected the contiguous threat, scrambling for structure and to evacuate large cities arsenic Israeli bombs fall.
"Why would you beryllium connected the streets if Israeli jets are bombarding those precise streets oregon bombarding subject targets not acold from you," noted Pinkas. "They're driving away, arsenic acold distant arsenic imaginable from Tehran… but I deliberation that erstwhile the particulate settles — and that could beryllium successful two, 3 days, it could besides beryllium successful 3 weeks, I honestly cannot foretell that — I deliberation a batch of that choler volition beryllium taken retired connected the regime."
In different words, adjacent if Israel's actions don't punctual an contiguous toppling of Iran's Islamic rulers, it could substance Iranians' determination to basal up to their clerical leaders. If that happens, it could travel astatine 1 of the ayatollah's weakest moments successful astir fractional a century.
Ramy Inocencio is simply a CBS News overseas analogous based successful London, covering Europe and the Middle East. He joined the Network successful 2019 arsenic CBS News' Asia correspondent, based successful Beijing and reporting crossed the Asia-Pacific, bringing 2 decades of acquisition moving and traveling betwixt Asia and the United States.
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