Arsenal could face Man City in never-before-seen Premier League title play-off

Arsenal and Manchester City could be set for a dramatic Premier League title play-off if a series of conditions are met

Arsenal and Manchester City remain embroiled in a fierce title race as the campaign hurtles towards its conclusion. Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola's sides will face off in a crucial fixture at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon.

The Gunners faltered last Saturday, succumbing 2-1 to Bournemouth at the Emirates. The Citizens responded emphatically on Sunday, hammering Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, leaving City six points adrift of Arsenal while holding a match in hand ahead of this Sunday's showdown. The race is well and truly on.

There exists even the remarkable possibility that both clubs could be compelled to contest a title-deciding play-off should they finish the campaign level on points. Several conditions would need to align for this scenario to materialise, though.

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Most significantly, Arsenal and City would need to share a 1-1 draw at the Etihad on Sunday, the identical scoreline the two sides recorded during their previous encounter at the Emirates last September.

Numerous other criteria must also be satisfied for a dramatic play-off to occur, with Arsenal having five fixtures remaining beyond Sunday and City possessing six. The primary tie-breaker employed to separate sides level on points at the season's end is overall goal difference, where Arsenal currently hold a three-goal advantage.

This figure is determined by deducting the total number of goals conceded from those scored throughout the entire season. As it happens, City remain the only club in history to have clinched a Premier League title on goal difference.

This famously took place in 2012, when Sergio Aguero's iconic last-gasp winner against QPR saw the Sky Blues finish level on points with local rivals Manchester United, yet claim the title. Should City and Arsenal remain inseparable after goal difference is applied, the second tie-breaker is the total number of goals scored, with just one currently separating the two sides in City's marginal favour.

If the clubs still cannot be divided following those criteria, attention turns to their head-to-head record. Emerging victorious on Sunday would gain the upper hand for either side, while a draw of 2-2 or more would give the advantage to Arsenal on away goals scored.

Should the forthcoming encounter finish 1-1, however, with all other statistical tie-breakers remaining identical, we would find ourselves in truly extraordinary territory. This would indicate that both sides had mirrored one another's performances across every measurable metric within the regulations.

The final and most extreme scenario for a deadlocked title race would be a one-off play-off fixture at a neutral ground. Wembley is a potential venue, though the Premier League rulebook stops short of confirming this, almost certainly because such a situation has never previously arisen.

This winner-takes-all encounter would only take place should the Premier League board conclude that no other method of separation is possible. And yet, remarkably, things could still become even more dramatic.

Should a play-off fixture be necessary and the two sides remain level after 90 minutes, the match would progress to 30 minutes of extra time.

If the scores cannot be separated during the additional period, a penalty shoot-out would ultimately determine who lifts the 2025/2026 title — and would undoubtedly become the most extraordinary and memorable moment in Premier League history.

It's a scenario that may well unsettle Arsenal. The last time these two sides met in a winner-takes-all contest was March's Carabao Cup final, where Guardiola's men triumphed 2-0, potentially handing them a psychological edge should such a play-off ever materialise.