5 days ago
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Liverpool doesn't need to worry about replacing Mohamed Salah just yet, after a protracted contract saga ended in a new two-year deal. That was ultimately better business than any new signing could have been, but various names were touted as possible replacements — including Manchester United new boy Bryan Mbeumo.
For its part, Liverpool has not necessarily forgotten about succession planning. While Alexander Isak is a striker by trade, a marquee source of goals like the Newcastle marksman would arguably be the long-term solution for life without Salah.
But in the meantime, everyone will be watching with interest to see how Mbeumo gets on at Old Trafford. Man United fans may even be hoping for the kind of impact that Salah has been able to have at Anfield.
Just how likely is that to happen? The short and obvious answer is "not very".
In fairness, there are some clear stylistic similarites in how Salah and Mbeumo play. They both like to start from the right and drift in onto their left, from which side they can unleash some precise shooting.
And it's also fair to suggest Mbeumo will be able to scale up his output at Man United. While he's technically travelling five places down the Premier League standings, you'd still expect goals to be slightly easier to come by at Old Trafford than the GTech Community Stadium.
Still, it would take a massive leap for the Cameroonian to touch Salah's levels. At 26, Mbeumo is entering his peak years, but he still got nowhere near 33-year-old Salah last season.
Salah, of course, had a record-smashing season that has put him in contention for the Ballon d'Or, so it's a high bar for anyone to measure up against. But the comparisons are out there, so we took a closer look.
In 2024/25, Salah ended the Premier League campaign with 29 goals and and 18 assists. Mbeumo managed 20 goals and eight assists.
So Man Utd's new man trailed Salah by nine goals and 10 assists, for a total goal contribution deficit of 19. All of the caveats in the world make it hard to draw any convincing parallels between the pair.
Moreover, this was by far and away Mbeumo's most productive season, with Brentford playing him as more of a striker for the majority of the campaign. In his time as a winger, it never got any better than nine goals and eight assists, some 30 goal contributions off Salah's output.
Was last season a sign that Mbeumo is ready to step up to truly elite numbers on a more consistent basis? And will he be able to maintain them at Man United when not necessarily playing as a number nine?
You never know, but the data suggests probably not. Mbeumo doubled his expected goals tally last year, scoring 0.4 per game from an expected total of 0.2.
Being clinical is obviously a good thing, but finishing at that rate is rarely, if ever, sustainable. Mbeumo's overperformance to the tune of 7.5 "extra" goals came after four successive seasons of underperforming his expected goals.
Salah's numbers paint a far steadier picture. Over the past five seasons, he has never varied from his expected goals by more than a total of four, consistently earning a high volume of chances and putting them away at a sustainable rate.
Having said that, his one really "hot" xG streak came in his debut season, when he overperformed by 7.9 goals. Obviously, he used that as a foundation to go on and dominate at Anfield — so there is some room for optimism at Man United that Mbeumo could do the same, building on his excellent year.
But on the evidence, it's every bit as likely that he will revert to his rather underwhelming norm. If Man United fans are expecting a Salah-esque impact, they should reel in their expectations.
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