Canada's best- and worst-case scenarios for Friday's FIFA World Cup draw

Chris Jones · CBC Sports

· Posted: Dec 04, 2025 3:38 PM EST | Last Updated: 1 minute ago

The Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., buzzed with activity and speculation on Thursday in advance of Friday’s all-important draw for the 2026 men’s World Cup. 

Next summer’s expanded tournament, to be played in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, will feature 48 teams, and their wildly different rankings, as well as the state of global politics, has made the assembly of the 12 opening groups feel like a delicate proposition.

Countries will be drawn from four pots, seeded by relative strength. As a co-host, Canada has a place in Pot 1 despite its being ranked 27th in the world, meaning that it won’t face top powers like Argentina, France, England, or Spain in the group stage.

The Canadian men, who failed to earn a point in their previous two World Cup appearances in 1986 and 2022, will still be pressed to advance to the knockout rounds. In a trial draw under the Kennedy Center’s bright lights on Thursday, Canada pulled South Korea from Pot 2, Paraguay from Pot 3, and the winner of a March playoff between Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, and Albania from Pot 4.

That would be a benign group given the possibilities. Each pot has its dangers and opportunities, and Canada’s fate will be significantly shaped by Friday’s drawing of actual lots. 

Pot 2

Every team in Pot 2 is seeded higher than Canada. The lowest seed is Australia, at 26th, which beat Canada 1-0 in a scrappy October friendly in Montreal. The top seed is Croatia, the 10th-best team in the world.

Croatia would be the worst-possible pick for Canada, not only because of their strength. In Qatar in 2022, the eventual semifinalists thumped Canada 4-1, after then-coach John Herdman infamously suggested his side “f--- Croatia.” The Croatians disagreed. A second meeting would have its intrigue, but there are less fraught options, on and off the pitch.

Croatian players celebrate a goal in their victory over Canada at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. (AFP via Getty Images)

Despite Australia’s recent win over Canada, a rematch would suit both countries. Australia’s lone goal was lucky — or unlucky, from the Canadian perspective — and each side would like its chances against the other.

While the specifics of each group-stage game won’t be confirmed until Saturday, Canada’s Pot 2 matchup will almost certainly be its last, slated for BC Place on June 24. A pan-Pacific summit would no doubt make for a buoyant, beer-soaked day in Vancouver.

Pot 3

Because UEFA will have 16 teams at the World Cup, each group will have at least one side from Europe and possibly two. Every team in Pot 3, at least according to FIFA’s rankings, is weaker than Canada, and there’s an obvious argument to be made that it would be better to face a European team from Pot 3 than Pot 2.

Norway is the counterargument. Lifted to great heights by the goalscoring heroics of Erling Haaland, the top Pot 3 seed, at 29th, is a potential tournament dark horse. The Norwegians went undefeated in qualifying, relegating even Italy to the UEFA playoffs, and finished with the best goal difference of any team on the continent.

A match between Canada and Norway — two relentless attacking sides — would make for tremendous entertainment, and hosting Haaland, one of the game’s titans, will only enhance the thrill.

But the dream is to advance out of the group, and Canada would be better off drawing 61st-ranked South Africa, the lowest seed among the Pot 3 teams.

Pot 4

In many ways, the supposedly weakest teams represent the most tournament-defining segment of the draw. Canada can’t face another CONCACAF side, so Curacao and Haiti are impossibilities. Ghana, Cape Verde, or New Zealand, the lowest-ranked qualified team, would prove fortuitous picks but require Canada to draw a European team from a previous pot.

As proved true in Thursday’s trial draw, Canada appears destined to meet one of the winners of UEFA’s playoffs for its four outstanding spots. Three of those would yield competitive matchups — perhaps Ukraine, Turkey, or Denmark.

But because of Norway’s surprising dominance, enigmatic Italy, the 12th-ranked team in the world, is part of UEFA’s Path A. The Italians are favourites to survive a playoff that also includes Wales, Bosnia, and Northern Ireland, and if they do, their emergence from the same pot as Curacao, the smallest country to qualify in history, seems almost unfair.

The only positive for Canada if it draws that fearsome lot: The Pot 4 game should be its opening match, scheduled for June 12 in Toronto. If there’s a way to make sure Canada kicks off its home World Cup in fitting fashion, it will be with a game against Italy, a short hop from College Street, on a sunny afternoon—blistering in more ways than one.