Chelsea Champions League permutations, top-eight chances and play-off fear

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Chelsea's 2-1 defeat to Serie A side Atalanta leaves Enzo Maresca's men facing a real possibility of missing out on a spot in the Champions League top eight places

Everything you need to know about Chelsea's Champions League knockout permutations after Tuesday night's defeat to Atalanta...

• Current situation: Chelsea has played 6 of their 8 league phase matches and currently sits in the mid-table positions. They have 10 points and have two matches remaining in the competition (Matchdays 7 and 8 in January 2026).

• Top eight finish: The current benchmark for a top-eight spot is 12 points after 6 games, meaning Chelsea is two points shy of the direct qualification zone. Chelsea must win both of their final two matches to give them the best chance of a top-eight finish. Earning a maximum of 16 total points is typically enough to secure direct progression to the Round of 16.

• Reliance on others: If Chelsea manages only four points from their final two games (one win and one draw), they will still need multiple teams currently above them in the table to drop points to sneak into the top eight.

• Play-off spot: Chelsea has already mathematically secured a spot in the knockout stages of the competition (at least the play-off round). They currently have 10 points, while the bottom 12 teams, which face elimination, have 6 points or fewer.

• Play-off advantage: If Chelsea finishes between 9th and 16th place, they will be seeded for the knockout play-off draw, which grants them a slight advantage in the tie. If they finish between 17th and 24th place, they will be unseeded and face a seeded team, giving them a more difficult path to the Round of 16.

• Unwanted doubleheader: Should Maresca's men finish outside the top eight, they will have to play two additional fixtures to progress to the round of 16. The ties take place on 17/18 & 24/25 February 2026.

• Wednesday's fixtures: Four of the 10 teams ahead of Chelsea play on Wednesday, meaning the likes of Real Madrid, PSG and Arsenal can stretch their advantage. Teams like Manchester City, Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen, Napoli and Juventus will look to close the gap to the Blues.

• What's next: Chelsea will have to wait until 2026 to play in the Champions League again. They take on Pafos FC on January 21 at Stamford Bridge before taking on Serie A holders Napoli a week later in Italy.