Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction and odds ahead of Carabao Cup clash

Liam Rosenior makes his first appearance at Stamford Bridge as the new Chelsea boss after succeeding Enzo Maresca and faces Arsenal as the Blues look to make the most of home advantage in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg

Chelsea and Arsenal both approach Wednesday’s EFL Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge on the back of emphatic away wins in their respective FA Cup openers. Chelsea booked their place in the last four of the EFL Cup by overcoming Cardiff City in the quarter-finals, while Arsenal needed penalties to edge past Crystal Palace after a tense stalemate.

It is the Gunners who go into this match as the favourites at 5/4 with Betfred to go into the second leg with the lead while the Blues are 23/10 to continue Liam Rosenior's solid start from the weekend in the FA Cup while a draw is a respectable 12/5.

Chelsea’s 3-1 triumph over Cardiff proved to be Enzo Maresca’s final victory as manager, coming just weeks before his dramatic exit following a breakdown in relations with the club’s hierarchy. Prior to his departure, Maresca had also steered the Blues to narrow wins over Lincoln City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, paving the way for their first home match of the 2025-26 EFL Cup campaign.

Historically, Chelsea have fared well at this stage, progressing to Wembley in four of their last five EFL Cup semi-final appearances—the only blemish being a loss to Arsenal in the 2017-18 season. This encounter will also mark Liam Rosenior’s first test against Premier League opposition as Chelsea boss, after his revamped side snapped a five-game winless streak by thrashing Charlton Athletic 5-1 in the FA Cup third round.

The winter period has been turbulent for Chelsea both on and off the pitch. The Blues have scored and conceded in each of their last seven matches across all competitions and have found the net in 12 consecutive home games at Stamford Bridge. Memories still linger of their EFL Cup semi-final loss to Arsenal last year and the 2018-19 final defeat to Manchester City—a match infamous for the Kepa Arrizabalaga substitution controversy.

In a twist of fate, Kepa played a decisive role in Arsenal’s recent quarter-final, saving Maxence Lacroix’s penalty to help the Gunners advance after a nerve-wracking shootout. Now, Mikel Arteta’s men are just three games away from ending their long wait for a League Cup title, hoping to finally progress after semi-final exits to Liverpool in 2021-22 and Newcastle United last season.

Arsenal, still fighting on four fronts, continued their strong run of form by coming from behind to defeat Portsmouth 4-1 in the FA Cup, with Gabriel Martinelli netting his first hat-trick for the club. While Chelsea have been prolific at home, Arsenal have scored in 13 consecutive away matches, including their 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in November—a result that extended their unbeaten streak against the Blues to eight games. Remarkably, Arsenal have not lost at Stamford Bridge since August 2018.

Arsenal vs ChelseaBetting Tips

• Both teams to score - 8/11 (Betfred)
• Bukayo Saka to score anytime - 2/1 (Betfred)
• Joao Pedro to score anytime - 12/5 (Betfred)

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