'It would be catastrophic' - are Spurs too big to go down?

BySteve Sutcliffe

BBC Sport journalist

Tottenham's heavy north London derby defeat against Arsenal on Sunday just confirmed what everyone already knew.

Igor Tudor's team are in serious trouble.

Perilously perched just four points above the Premier League relegation zone following the 4-1 home loss, Spurs have a multitude of issues to resolve.

They have not won a domestic league game in 2026 and only two since 26 October 2025, meaning that - aside from bottom club Wolves - 16th-placed Tottenham have the worst form in the division.

New interim head coach Tudor has a crippling injury list to contend with, plus a forthcoming Champions League last-16 tie to negotiate.

And all this is while he is attempting to implement new ideas and avoid the unthinkable scenario of dropping down into the Championship.

Since 1950, Spurs have only spent one season outside the top flight, which was back in 1977-78.

BBC Sport assesses their precarious situation, what relegation might bring and if they are too good to go down?

In Tottenham's remaining 11 Premier League games they will visit Wolves and have home fixtures against sides around them in the table - Crystal Palace, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Leeds.

However, their record at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season is frankly abysmal, so can they expect to turn their form around against fellow strugglers?

With just two wins and only 10 points accrued from a possible 42, only Wolves have collected fewer points on home soil.

While sports analytics and data experts Opta place their chances of relegation at just 4.84%, worryingly for Spurs supporters their team have collected just 0.67 points per game since defeating Everton on 26 October.

And unless Tottenham can arrest their slump, that would equate to a further seven points, taking them to 36 on the final day of the season.

"I would be really surprised if they weren't able to fight their way out of it," former Spurs midfielder Danny Murphy, told BBC Sport.

"The games coming up are all huge. I think they will have just enough.

"The fact we are mentioning Spurs going down is unbelievable. It's absolutely ridiculous really.

"Whether you blame recruitment or the owners, it would be catastrophic for that club. I have heard some fans suggest going down could be the best thing. I just don't see that."

Tottenham finished 17th last term, but were never really in danger of relegation as then-boss Ange Postecoglou juggled an injury-hit squad with a focus on Europe.

While their league form suffered they still scored 64 times and the silver lining was a Europa League triumph over Manchester United last May, which also secured a coveted place in the Champions League.

However, their attacking output this season has been underwhelming and they would need to average 2.45 goals per game in their forthcoming fixtures to match the same tally as the previous campaign.

The long-term absences of Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have hardly helped matters and a stretched squad was without a total of 11 players last weekend, considerably more than any other Premier League club.

Former full-back Stephen Kelly believes the "only reason" Tottenham may stay up is that other teams are even worse.

"You look at the fixtures coming and you feel like they are ones they could absolutely lose," he said.

"They need a mentality to be able to perform at home. If you can get back to winning some games that can make a huge difference, but it just doesn't feel like that is going to change between now and the end of the season.

"I don't really want to admit it, and still feel there are teams that are really poor and won't get themselves out of it [relegation], but the only reason Spurs will be OK is that other teams will do worse.

"It is not a great thing to be talking about, but is probably going to be the case. It is not looking very good at all."

There has been a number of media reports, external outlining the calamitous cost that relegation would bring to Spurs.

And the club would undoubtedly face a significant financial hit if it was to start 2026-27 in the second tier.

Broadcast, matchday and commercial incomes would all be squeezed, while the most recent wage bill sat at around £254m as opposed to the Championship average of £38m.

There would also be a knock-on effect on transfers, not only in the quality of players the club could attract but also in paying off £337m in outstanding instalments for current players.

BBC Sport's own analysis points to an estimated fall in annual revenue of around £261m as football finance expert Kieran Maguire said: "In 2023-24, the most Spurs generated an average of £84 per supporter per match, the highest figure in the Premier League.

"That figure would face significant downward pressure, not from the size of the crowd, but from what clubs can realistically charge.

"Corporate clients who pay a premium for a home fixture against Liverpool or Arsenal are unlikely to pay the same for a visit from Swansea.

"There is also great financial vulnerability around sponsorship. The front-of-shirt deal with AIA, worth around £40m a year almost certainly contains relegation clauses that could halve its value.

"The kit deal with Nike, estimated at £30m annually, is likely to take a smaller hit.

"Spurs supporters will still buy replica shirts regardless of division, but a reduction is likely. Broader sponsorship and partner agreements across the club would face similar issues."

He added: "For a club of Spurs' ambitions and financial scale, relegation would not simply be a short-term sporting setback. The economics of English football make recovery a multi-year project."

The phrase 'too good to go down' was widely banded around about the Forest side that won the first ever televised live Premier League game against Liverpool in August 1992.

Except they weren't.

The sales of England pair Des Walker and Teddy Sheringham had significantly weakened a group more accustomed to challenging at the top end of the table and domestic cup finals.

And the two-time former European champions, with a squad containing Stuart Pearce, Roy Keane, Steve Stone and Nigel Clough went down in legendary boss Brian Clough's final season in charge.

There have also been other high-profile clubs that have gone the same way.

Fabricio Coloccini, Obafemi Martins, Michael Owen, Damien Duff and Nicky Butt were part of the Newcastle squad relegated in 2008-09.

On paper the Magpies also looked relatively strong in the 2015-16 campaign, with Aleksandar Mitrovic, Georginio Wijnaldum and Andros Townsend in their ranks.

Again, that wasn't enough and they joined another former European Cup-winning club, Aston Villa in going down that year.

The basic premise appears to be that the scrap for survival takes no account of big names - once you're down there anything can transpire.

"If you keep losing games and confidence drops, it doesn't matter how many good players you have, it gets hard," added Murphy.

Sheffield Wednesday have never returned since losing their top-flight spot in 2000, with their sorry plight well documented.

Like the Owls, Leeds United have dropped down as far as the third tier since being crowned English champions in 1992, while former Premier League winners Blackburn are currently fighting to preserve their Championship status.