Italy missed the World Cup again — but that's good news for Canada

Jesse Campigotto · CBC Sports

· Posted: Apr 01, 2026 4:41 PM EDT | Last Updated: 6 minutes ago

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No, this is not an April Fools' joke. The Azzurri, global soccer blue bloods who have won four World Cup titles and are currently ranked 12th in the world, will miss the tournament for the third consecutive time after losing to Bosnia-Herzegovina in a penalty shootout to decide their last-chance qualifier yesterday.

With their stunning victory over Italy, the 65th-ranked Bosnians earned the final spot in Group B and will be co-host Canada's opponent for its World Cup opener on June 12 in Toronto.

In the other matches yesterday to decide the final six spots in the World Cup, Czechia defeated Denmark on penalties after a 2-2 draw, Turkey topped Kosovo 1-0, Sweden beat Poland 3-2, Congo blanked Jamaica 1-0 and Iraq got past Bolivia 2-1.

The visiting Italians, who beat Northern Ireland at home last week to reach the final of their European playoff path, grabbed an early lead against Bosnia-Herzegovina with a Moise Kean goal in the 15th minute. But a red card to defender Alessandro Bastoni for a hard tackle that ruined a Bosnian scoring chance late in the first half left Italy shorthanded the rest of the way, and the home team broke through in the 79th minute with a goal by Haris Tabakovic to tie it 1-1. After a scoreless 30 minutes of extra time, Bosnia outscored Italy 4-1 in the shootout to earn its second trip to the World Cup and first since 2014.

That was also the last time Italy made it. In 2018, they lost a two-leg qualifier against Sweden, and in 2022 they suffered a shocking 1-0 playoff defeat to tiny North Macedonia. After once again failing to win their first-round European qualifying group, where they lost both matches against now No. 31 Norway, the Italians had to win two straight elimination games to reach the World Cup. Instead, they're now the first multi-time champion to miss the tournament three times in a row.

It's a tough one to swallow not only for Italy but for the many Italian-Canadian soccer fans who hoped to see their two favourite teams play each other in Toronto in a couple months. Given the city's large Italian community, it would have been a spectacle, to say the least.

But, from a purely Canadian perspective, this might be for the best.

The 12 groups for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. (Courtesy of FIFA)

Sure, the Italian team looks like a mess right now, but they're a more dangerous foe than the Bosnians, who are ranked 53 spots lower. And with Italy out of the picture, the 30th-ranked Canadians remain easily the No. 2 team in Group B, which also includes No. 19 Switzerland and No. 55 Qatar. You're familiar with the Group of Death? Well, this might be the Group of Life.

Canada's chances of reaching the knockout stage for the first-time ever look pretty good right now. The Canadians will enjoy home-field advantage for all of their preliminary-round games (the other two are in Vancouver) and it's much easier to advance under the new format for the expanded 48-team tournament. Along with the traditional top two in each group moving on, the eight best third-place teams will now join them too. According to current betting odds, Canada has around a 75 per cent chance of making it past the group stage.

Still, there's work to do for a banged-up team that has been without Alphonso Davies, its captain and best player, since he tore his ACL in March of last year during a match against the United States. Other injured players missing from last night's scoreless friendly against 44th-ranked Tunisia at a soggy BMO Field in Toronto included defenders Alistair Johnston and Moise Bombito, midfielder Stephen Eustaquio and forward Jacob Shaffelburg.

On the bright side, the absences allowed head coach Jesse Marsch to test some fringe players in Canada's last game before his 26-man roster is due May 30. “I’ve got some tough decisions to make,” Marsch said.

Goalkeeper Max Crepeau, who earned the shutout, cautioned against being overconfident about Canada's World Cup outlook. "Every game is going to be a war," he said. "Small margins will make the difference. One false step will make the difference."

Here's more on last night's match and the Canadian team's World Cup path from CBC Sports contributor Chris Jones.