Liverpool’s chances of advancing past Galatasaray after first leg defeat are clear

Liverpool remain favorites to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals after suffering a 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray in the first leg of the round of 16 on Tuesday

Liverpool remains the favorite to advance past Galatasaray despite losing 1-0 in the first leg(Image: Photo by Cem Tekkesinoglu/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Liverpool must overcome a one-goal deficit at Anfield next week if they are to advance past Galatasaray and into the Champions League quarterfinals.

Arne Slot’s side was handed a reality check in Istanbul on Tuesday, failing to score in a hectic affair ultimately won 1-0 by Galatasaray, though Mario Lemina’s point-blank header seven minutes in.

The Reds had numerous chances themselves, including a second-half equalizer that was ruled out due to Ibrahima Konate's handball shortly before it ricocheted into the net. Overall, Slot’s team was second-best on the night and now faces an uphill battle to avoid elimination in the round of 16.

Still, Liverpool are considered 8/15 favorites to advance past Galatasaray, who are an 11/8 shot to hold off the reigning Premier League champions at Anfield next Wednesday.

Slot’s team has the distinct advantage of playing at home in the second leg, which they are 2/5 favorites to win in regular time, even though their home record during the 2025-26 campaign has been far from perfect.

Liverpool won three of four home matches in this year’s league phase, the only outlier coming in a disastrous 4-1 defeat to PSV on Nov. 26.

In the Premier League, the Reds have already dropped points at home against Manchester City, Burnley, Leeds United, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester United.

Mario Lemina's headed goal was the difference in the first leg(Image: Photo by BSR Agency/Getty Images)

However, Galatasaray’s away form this season gives Slot and company good reason to believe.

The Turkish giants have lost four of five away matches in this year’s Champions League, their only triumph coming in a 3-0 victory over Ajax in the league phase on November 5.

Other than that, Okan Buruk’s side lost to Eintracht Frankfurt, Monaco, Manchester City, and Juventus in the round of 32 play-off, although Galatasaray entered that match up 5-2 on aggregate.

Tuesday’s first leg began with a bang and set the tone for what was to come over the next 90 minutes.

The Reds got out on the front foot but could not capitalize on several scoring chances, including Florian Wirtz dragging a shot from distance wide on an open goal just minutes in.

It appeared as if Liverpool would be the ones to open the scoring, but Victor Osimhen’s headed attempt from a corner kick set up a close-range goal from Lemina, the first of his Champions League career that proved to be the winner.

Slot’s side will need to be more compact in the back and clinical in the final third in the second leg for its best chance to avoid yet another early Champions League exit.

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