Back in 2023, Man City were charged with breaking financial fair play rules over a nine-year period, which started in 2009 and went on until 2018.
Manchester City and the Premier League remain in limbo as they await the final verdict on the 115 charges brought against the club for allegedly violating financial regulations from 2009 to 2018.
The hearing into City's alleged violations – which are all denied by the club – of Premier League financial regulations concluded in December 2024 following a 12-week tribunal. However, the independent commission has still to make its findings public.
It has now been 14 months since the tribunal concluded, with the commission still in the process of deliberating, but football finance expert Kieran Maguire believes “we are probably into the final reaches of getting a decision.”
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“We reckon there's probably about half a million pieces of evidence that were presented by both the prosecution and the defence,” he said on the latest episode of The Overlap.
“The hearing finished in the second week of December. So we're now 14 months with silence. So by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we're probably into the final reaches of getting a decision.
“I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgement. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult.
“So that's delayed the case. It should be resolved in the next few months. But we said this before, you know, Pep was saying last February that he was expecting something. There's an awful lot of evidence to go through and this and the charges are very, very serious. So you've got to have enough evidence.”
He then added: “If it comes out the week before the end of the season, it would be catastrophic in many ways. From what I understand, both the Premier League and Manchester City will probably be given 24 hours notice of the verdict to allow their lawyers to go away and check the small print of it. It could be on the day of the World Cup final for all we know.”
Asked about possible punishments if City were found guilty, Maguire said: “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL. Therefore, it has to be a points deduction.
“If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger.
“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant. I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.
“If they want to go further then we don’t know the severity. In the case of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP purely. The accusations against Manchester City have already been hinted at, which is why it is taking so long.
“Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League, with the Premier League itself - of whom you are a shareholder - with this accusation being proven?
“If you take a look at what happened with Juventus in Serie A, the board had to resign when they were claiming things about player wages which were proven to be untrue. There is an honesty issue here that would mean if Manchester City are found guilty - City are massively confident, as are the Premier League - then the board has to go and that could be a complete restructure of the club.”
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