Man City and Arsenal final points tally predicted with 72% favourite decided

The Premier League title race is going down to the wire and Opta data analysis has predicted who will come out on top between Arsenal and Manchester City in the final weeks

Data modelling from Opta has forecast Arsenal to edge out Manchester City for the Premier League title. Last weekend saw Pep Guardiola triumph over former assistant Mikel Arteta at the Etihad Stadium in a significant twist in the race for the title.

It represented another major boost for the Cityzens, who are breathing down the necks of the league leaders. Arsenal remain three points clear, but Guardiola's outfit have a match in hand and a goal difference which is just one goal inferior to the Gunners.

Nonetheless, numerous fixtures remain to be contested and ample opportunity exists for further developments. With that in mind, Opta has examined the forthcoming fixtures and delivered its Premier League forecast.

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Arsenal have been projected to conclude the Premier League season on 80 points. Given they presently have 70, with 15 more available, many would not anticipate this being sufficient to terminate the 22-year title drought.

Ten additional points would amount to three wins, a draw and a loss from fixtures against Newcastle United (home), Fulham (home), West Ham United (away), Burnley (home) and Crystal Palace (away).

Meanwhile, Guardiola's outfit have been projected to falter in their title challenge. Opta predicts City will conclude the season on 78 points. Given they have six fixtures remaining and are presently on 67 points, this would be the equivalent of them securing three victories, drawing twice and losing once.

City have to face Burnley (away), Everton (away), Brentford (home), Bournemouth (away), Crystal Palace (home) and Aston Villa (home). Taking these projections into account, Opta have handed the Gunners a 72.04% probability of lifting the Premier League title, with City given a 27.96% chance of clinching top spot.

Given the magnitude of the result and City's proven pedigree during the business end of a title race, plenty will still consider the Cityzens the team to beat. Nevertheless, Arteta remains adamant that his side are capable of going all the way.

The Spaniard said: "I believe today, I believe on Wednesday a week ago because I see them every day and I know the level that we have. But today if they need to be more convinced, I think they are now more convinced.

"They were talking about it in the dressing room. It's a new league now. They were a game in hand. We have three points of advantage and five games to play.

"So everything is still to play for. So we know how much we've won it and we're not going to stop and we're going to go again, that's for sure."