Memorial Day MLB standings check: Playoff field predictions, biggest surprises and more

It's Memorial Day, truthful you cognize what that means, MLB fans. You are officially escaped to look astatine the standings and springiness credence to what you see!

Among shot fans, the saying goes that you should debar checking the standings until Memorial Day due to the fact that by that constituent teams person yet played capable games done 2 months to adhd meaning to what we're seeing play retired successful each division.

Though your team's presumption successful the standings contiguous doesn't warrant it volition extremity the play there, determination is thing to the concept: According to Elias Sports Bureau data, 59% of teams (99 of 167) that were successful sole possession of archetypal spot connected the greeting of June 1 person gone connected to triumph their part successful the wild-card epoch (since 1995, excluding 2020).

We asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney and David Schoenfield to look astatine this year's standings and measurement successful connected what stands retired most.

What's the archetypal happening that jumps retired to you erstwhile you look astatine the standings?

Doolittle: I'm not definite "jump" is the close verb erstwhile referring to the 2025 Colorado Rockies, but the level of depravity astatine the bottommost of the National League West is hard to look distant from. Where bash you start? They are minus-171 successful tally differential. They are connected gait to decorativeness much than 50 games backmost of the fourth-place squad successful their division. They've fixed up astir 2 runs for each 1 they've scored. But the astir stunning stat of all: The Rockies fertile 10th successful per-game location attendance, though they're past successful their part successful that country arsenic well.

Schoenfield: The Rockies are truthful bad, they marque the 2024 Chicago White Sox look similar the 1998 New York Yankees. They're similar the ending to "Game of Thrones." Like Shaquille O'Neal shooting escaped throws. To beryllium fair, though, they're amended than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders -- who clasp the worst single-season grounds successful MLB history, finishing astatine 20-134.

Olney: The parity of the American League, which is affirmed by the playoff likelihood presented connected FanGraphs.com: As of Monday morning, 11 of 15 teams person astatine slightest a 20% accidental of reaching the postseason. That means we truly don't cognize thing yet astir the AL, different than however bully the Detroit Tigers are and that lone 4 games abstracted 4 teams astatine the apical of the AL West. If determination are fewer pre-deadline trades successful precocious July, this volition beryllium the superior reason: AL owners of middling teams volition person themselves (and rightly so) that they person a accidental and won't woody talent.

Rogers: Seeing the Baltimore Orioles successful past spot successful the AL East. Even if you didn't deliberation they did capable successful the offseason, their discourtesy unsocial should person kept them afloat. In that vein, the deficiency of productivity from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman is rather shocking. The conception of the Orioles trading distant players astatine the deadline was farfetched successful January; now, it's a reality.

Of the six NL teams presently successful the playoff field, however galore volition beryllium determination successful October?

Doolittle: Five. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are successful a coagulated position. I similar the San Diego Padres to stay successful position, though they request to adhd to their lineup earlier the commercialized deadline. The San Francisco Giants person been terrific, but I inactive deliberation the Atlanta Braves volition instrumentality disconnected astatine immoderate point, leaving San Francisco and the pitching-challenged Arizona Diamondbacks connected the extracurricular looking in.

Olney: I'll accidental 4 of the existent six -- the Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers. The Giants person played well, and it seems apt that president of shot operations Buster Posey volition beryllium assertive earlier the commercialized deadline, and the St. Louis Cardinals person played acold amended than expected. But astatine immoderate point, the roster extent of the Braves volition afloat manifest, particularly present that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider are back, and either San Diego oregon Arizona volition instrumentality the past spot. The D-backs volition look similar a overmuch antithetic squad aft they get their bullpen successful order, and Padres GM A.J. Preller has a knack for filling and fixing holes.

Rogers: Five of the existent six volition beryllium determination successful October. As bully arsenic the Giants person been, I don't deliberation they tin prolong it implicit 162 games. Now that the Braves person their stars back, their champion days are up of them. I besides don't deliberation the Cardinals person staying power, further opening the doorway for Atlanta.

Schoenfield: I'm successful the aforesaid vessel arsenic everyone else. I'll accidental 5 of six, with either the Giants oregon Cardinals yet falling short, though it's apt to beryllium a crowded tract down to the last week of the season, with the Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks factoring in. I inactive deliberation Arizona's lineup volition powerfulness the squad into a playoff spot, but the D-backs request to get Zac Gallen straightened retired -- he's walking 4.2 batters per 9 innings -- and the 5th spot successful the rotation has been a spot of a messiness arsenic well, with Ryne Nelson present getting a accidental implicit the injured and ineffective Eduardo Rodriguez.

Of the six AL teams presently successful the playoff field, however galore volition beryllium determination successful October?

Olney: Three -- I'm buying the Tigers, Yankees and Seattle Mariners. Detroit has been singular aboriginal this play successful however it has plowed done injuries to its outfield; New York is getting better, with reinforcements for its rotation connected the skyline (Luis Gil); and Seattle could person its rotation successful bid by the extremity of June present that George Kirby is backmost and Logan Gilbert's instrumentality is connected the horizon. The information that the Mariners were capable to instrumentality connected Leody Taveras' full wage is an aboriginal indicator that Seattle, which fundamentally sat retired the wintertime market, volition beryllium assertive astatine the commercialized deadline.

Barring injury, Aaron Judge volition triumph the AL MVP unanimously, truthful the existent question is who volition decorativeness second, and Cal Raleigh is making a hellhole of a case.

Rogers: Four. It's highly doubtful the AL Central volition instrumentality 4 teams to the playoffs, truthful that's wherever there's an opening for a mates of teams from extracurricular the existent wild-card standings to marque it. Two of the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers volition marque it to the postseason on with the existent 3 part leaders Buster listed. The question is which of the different 3 AL Central teams -- the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals -- volition articulation them. I deliberation the reply is the Royals.

Doolittle: I'll spell with four, too. If my regular simulations are right, the Astros volition overtake 1 of the AL Central clubs, astir apt Cleveland. Subjectively, it's hard for maine to envision the East getting successful lone 1 team, and the Red Sox person a tally differential that suggests amended results ahead.

Schoenfield: Probably astatine slightest three, but I'm buying lone the Tigers and Yankees arsenic locks. They are intelligibly the astir well-rounded teams successful the AL, with Detroit's discourtesy 1 of the biggest surprises of the archetypal 2 months (fourth successful the majors successful runs per game). Otherwise, it seems similar thing tin happen. Heck, adjacent the Los Angeles Angels clawed backmost into the representation with that eight-game winning streak. I support waiting for the Red Sox to interruption out, but Alex Bregman is present out with a "significant" quad injury, according to manager Alex Cora, and they're inactive searching for consistency from their non-Garrett Crochet starters, though possibly calling up apical imaginable Marcelo Mayer volition supply the spark Boston needs.

Which squad is the biggest disappointment?

Olney: A highest down the curtain: When we bash these roundtables, I americium sometimes past to marque my selections. But successful this case, I jumped successful aboriginal and got the accidental to beryllium Captain Obvious with my pick: the Orioles. They won 101 games 2 seasons agone and 91 past season, and present they're connected a trajectory to regress backmost to the bully ol' days of their tanking years and suffer 100 oregon truthful games. Baltimore was inactive successful the contention successful July of the rebuilding 2022 play -- conscionable a mates of games retired of a wild-card spot -- and inactive chose to commercialized players away, truthful is determination immoderate existent uncertainty that the O's volition beryllium assertive dealers successful July, parting ways with the likes of Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn? And that would beryllium the due effect arsenic their chances of making the playoffs basal astatine 1.6%, according to FanGraphs.

Schoenfield: Well, determination is lone 1 close reply here, and Buster got archetypal pick. I'll propulsion retired Atlanta, which classifies arsenic disappointing adjacent arsenic it had to play done the injuries to Acuña and Strider. Both are backmost now, but the Braves inactive person different issues: Raisel Iglesias keeps giving up location runs and has 4 losses; they've had 2 different walk-off losses implicit the past 10 days from different relievers; Michael Harris II is struggling to get his OPS implicit .600; and Ozzie Albies has an OBP nether .300. That season-beginning 0-7 roadworthy travel to Los Angeles and San Diego surely enactment the squad successful an aboriginal hole.

Doolittle: The Orioles person their ain tier successful this department. It's hard to overstate however overmuch they've underachieved. They are hardly staving disconnected the White Sox to debar the wide basement successful the AL, and Chicago's tally differential is much, much better. Baltimore's pitching looked fishy coming into the season, but its tally prevention has wholly collapsed.

Rogers: I'm going to propulsion a curveball to this question and prime the Diamondbacks -- successful particular, their bullpen. What a disaster. After signing Corbin Burnes and seeing the real Corbin Carroll look again, it looked similar Arizona was primed for a instrumentality to prominence aft making it to the World Series 2 years ago. Yet present the squad is astatine .500 connected Memorial Day.

It's mostly owed to a pen that ranks 26th successful ERA with an disfigured 5.24 mark. Perhaps the instrumentality of Kendall Graveman volition assistance matters, but aft losing A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez to wounded and demoting Joe Mantiply, the bullpen is successful implicit flux. Add successful the information that the D-backs person produced the astir prevention opportunities successful shot and it hurts adjacent much to person a pen that can't fastener down games. A July hole is successful order.

How galore teams volition triumph 100 games this season, and who volition decorativeness with the astir wins?

Doolittle: One -- the Dodgers. There's excessively overmuch parity successful the AL for anyone to get there, though the Tigers are disconnected to a large start.

Olney: The dreams of the Dodgers winning 120 games are obsolete present with their pitching unit successful tatters. Incredibly, L.A. leads the majors successful bullpen innings, which seems shocking fixed the resources the squad has devoted to starting pitching. I'll accidental the Tigers triumph the astir games, and it's imaginable they'll beryllium the lone squad successful the majors to triumph 100 this season.

Rogers: It'll beryllium close, but I'm going with zero. The Dodgers volition conscionable miss hitting 100, arsenic volition the Tigers. One squad volition beryllium redeeming its champion for October portion the different is conscionable becoming the champion mentation of itself and volition inactive person a fewer unsmooth patches passim the year. And some are successful pugnacious divisions, which volition besides suppress their triumph totals -- arsenic the NL East volition bash for the Phillies. There's conscionable excessively overmuch parity astatine the apical of each league this season, truthful it'll beryllium a uncommon 1 with nary 100-win squads.

Schoenfield: The Phillies look blistery close present -- but that's due to the fact that they conscionable cleaned up against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, Rockies and Athletics successful a generous spot of scheduling. I'll spell with the Cubs for the astir wins. Pete Crow-Armstrong's discourtesy is looking much and much similar the existent deal, which puts this lineup connected different level, and they person the imaginable extent to adhd immoderate pitching help. The NL Central besides doesn't look peculiarly strong, unless you judge successful the Cardinals, and the Cubs person played lone 9 games truthful acold wrong the division. I person the Cubs clocking successful astatine ... 99 wins. So, nary squad wins 100, which was really the lawsuit past play erstwhile the Dodgers led the majors with 98.

How galore teams volition suffer 100 games this season, and who volition decorativeness with the astir losses?

Doolittle: Just 2 -- the Rockies and White Sox. The White Sox person been better, but avoiding 100 losses is simply a large inquire arsenic that would necessitate them to beryllium astatine slightest 22 games amended than 2024. They aren't that overmuch better. The Rockies volition decorativeness with the astir losses. Haven't they mislaid 100 already?

Olney: Is this a instrumentality question? The Rockies inactive haven't adjacent reached double-digits successful wins yet, and they've got 8 less than the White Sox. Colorado besides has a summertime up of getting pounded by a parade of beardown NL teams. At this point, the play mightiness beryllium considered a occurrence if the Rockies get to 40 wins (and 122 losses) connected the year. I don't cognize who they should commercialized distant astatine the deadline, but implicit the adjacent 2 months, they request to physique a cogent strategy to excavation themselves retired of this spread to beryllium capable to decently signifier their draught and deadline choices.

Rogers: Three. The Rockies, White Sox and Miami Marlins. Isn't Colorado already there? And arsenic overmuch arsenic Chicago has improved, this squad won't beryllium capable to scope 63 wins -- though it could get close. The Marlins are connected a decent gait to debar 100 losses close now, but the commercialized deadline is apt to portion them of that ability.

Schoenfield: It's not whether the Rockies volition suffer 100 oregon whether they'll adjacent situation the White Sox's modern grounds of 121 losses acceptable past season, but whether they mightiness adjacent "shatter" that people with 127 oregon 128 losses. Throw successful the White Sox, Pirates and eventually, the Marlins, and we mightiness get 4 100-loss teams. The Orioles person to spell 45-65 to debar 100 losses and should beryllium capable to bash that.