Pep Guardiola might be considering Man City plan that has already backfired

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Manchester City advanced to the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday thanks to a 2-0 victory over Brentford

"The really important game is West Ham," Pep Guardiola told the media ahead of Wednesday night's Carabao Cup quarter-final vs Brentford. "After West Ham we have seven days to recover, but West Ham… I’m sorry it’s so, so important." The head coach's frank admission hinted at major changes in midweek.

And so it proved as Guardiola made seven alterations to the side which beat Crystal Palace, albeit Phil Foden was reintroduced less than 20 minutes into the game due to Oscar Bobb's injury. The rotated side produced the goods for City with Rayan Cherki and Savinho's strikes securing a place in the semi-finals for the Blues.

While there is undoubted positivity to take from a sixth successive victory and progression to the last four of the first domestic competition of the season, it does provide a major headache for City too. Between New Year's Day and February 1, the Blues will play a staggering ten matches in all competitions.

This includes a home clash with Chelsea, the Manchester derby, a trip to Tottenham, the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final and the culmination of their Champions League league phase against Bodo/Glimt and Galatasaray. It is a gruelling schedule which will require Guardiola's players to be in peak condition.

Guardiola may have to consider repeating the tactic of heavy squad rotation for more important fixtures. We can expect against Exeter City for the Blues to make a raft of changes to the starting XI, though they will of course still be considered heavy favourites.

The same may also be said for the Champions League tie with Galatasaray should City secure a top eight place at Bodo/Glimt earlier that month. But rotation will become a necessity beyond those matches if Guardiola wants to keep his team fresh.

Looking at the run ahead, City might rotate against either Sunderland or Brighton to ensure the squad is fully rested. However, considering the start the Black Cats have had and the difficulties Fabian Hurzeler's side often pose, making changes for either game is a huge risk.

After that, barring Exeter, Guardiola may be unwilling to change his team again until January 24 when Wolves visit the Etihad Stadium. Following the Champions League tie against Bayer Leverkusen when ten changes were made, the City boss accepted it was perhaps too many.

"I understand your question," he explained. "Absolutely, I have to accept it. I have to accept that if we win, it will not be a problem.

"I accept that maybe it's a lot, but I think they're playing every two or three or four days, we need to... but maybe it's too much. Seeing the result, maybe it's too much [changing]."

Some changes cannot be helped, of course. City are in the midst of something of a mini-injury crisis with Bobb the latest player to pick up an injury.

Rodri should be back soon, as will John Stones, but Jeremy Doku is likely to miss some of January already and his absence means other players have to do more work to cover. Doing that only serves to heighten the risk of injury.

Since the Champions League defeat, Guardiola has been reluctant to make too many changes. He made no alterations after Leeds, one after Fulham, none after Sunderland and an enforced change following the Real Madrid win.

The lacklustre display against Bayer Leverkusen would have been enough for most managers to resist making heavy alterations to their team for the foreseeable. But the price of success for City means Guardiola might need to revisit this strategy in the new year.

City's start to 2026

January 1 - Sunderland (A) - Premier League

January 4 - Chelsea (H) - Premier League

January 7 - Brighton (H) - Premier League

January 10 - Exeter City (H) - FA Cup third round

W/C January 12 - Newcastle United (A) - Carabao Cup semi-final first leg

January 17 - Manchester United (A) - Premier League

January 20 - Bodo/Glimt (A) - Champions League

January 24 - Wolves (H) - Premier League

January 28 - Galatasaray (H) - Champions League

February 1 - Tottenham (A) - Premier League

W/C February 2 - Newcastle United (H) - Carabao Cup semi-final second leg

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