The first shot phenomenon: Are Milan getting lucky or are they just clinical?

Over the past few days since the win over Cagliari, a particular statistic has made waves regarding AC Milan’s propensity to score with their first shot on target.

To be more specific, the bit of data is as follows: in the league this season, Milan have scored with their first shot on target 12 times. That is the number La Gazzetta dello Sport have, while some others believe it to be 11.

The point of contention seems to be the goal in the derby vs. Inter, and whether Alexis Saelemaekers’ shot was going in before Christian Pulisic tapped in the rebound, and thus whether that was shot on target one or two.

Either way, the fact remains that the tally was added to on Friday night in the first game of 2026, when Rafael Leao collected a cut-back from Adrien Rabiot and lashed a shot in via a deflection for the only goal of the game. It came via a stroke of luck, but are Milan generally quite lucky?

In the league this season, #ACMilan have scored with their first shot on target 12 times (!); a tally that was increased by Leao's goal yesterday.

[via @Gazzetta_it] pic.twitter.com/JzfRERSqj2

— MilanData📊 (@acmilandata) January 3, 2026

What the numbers say

Scoring 11 or 12 times from the first shot on target and not even being at the halfway point of the season suggests a certain element of luck, and it has already provoked question marks about how sustainable it is.

Generally speaking though, when it comes to shooting on goal, are the Rossoneri fortunate or is this par for the course based on other metrics?

Looking at the stats for the league in general, Inter are the top scorers with 36 goals, eight more than Milan who have 28 so far. Chivu’s men have got those from 293 total shots, and 93 shots on target. For Allegri’s side, their goals have come from 221 shots, 74 of which were on target.

Milan therefore carry a higher shot on target percentage of 33.5% compared to 31.7% for their city rivals. Their shots per goal ratio is 0.11, while for the Nerazzurri it is 0.12. In short, the conversion rate is almost identical, which means that more shots for the blue side of the city means more goals, and that the red side are not scoring more than they should.

Milan have the second-most goals in the league, but the seventh-most total shots on target. Torino, Napoli, Como, Roma, Juventus (and Inter of course) have all fired on goal more, but have scored less.

Among those teams, Roma (36%), Como (34.5%), Napoli (35.4%) and Torino (35.3%) all have a higher shot on target rate than the Rossoneri do. Yet, for all of them, their goals per shot ratio is lower, considerably so in Torino’s case (0.07).

How can we explain this? Shot quality is a big factor, and Milan are in the top six when it comes to shooting from the closest range, which obviously generally speaking gives a higher chance of scoring. Milan’s average shot is from 16.9 yards, while Inter lead in this regard at 16.2.

The Expected Goals number can do a bit of explaining too, which again is a suggestion of the opportunities a team are generating. Milan have 28 goals from 26.4 xG, so they are outperforming it by 1.6.

The sign of a ‘lucky’ team is one outperforming it wildly. Step forward, Inter: the Nerazzurri have 36 goals from 31.3 xG which is an out-performance by 4.7. It is the highest in the league by some distance, and is perhaps partly explained by the fact they have some lethal finishers.

Image: FBref

Individuals and incidents

Speaking of lethal finishing, FBref also provide the ability to look at individual players, and here a distinction arrives between the elite and the more wasteful teams.

The top player in Serie A by some distance when it comes to out-performing xG is Christian Pulisic, who has eight goals from 3.9 Expected. Again, this is not a detraction, just a way of pointing out that he has done a lot with a little.

Hakan Calhanoglu and Ange-Yoan Bonny feature in the top five, then comes Rafael Leao at 10. He has 6 goals from 4.3 xG, again owing to the fact that he has been much more clinical this season as he is playing in a central role.

Beyond stats, how did the dynamic of these goals occur? Counting backwards, as mentioned Leao’s shot did take a deflection but it hardly felt like a fluke when it rippled the back of the net. Against Verona, it was a corner routine that was well-worked and flicked in by Pulisic.

Adrien Rabiot’s 30-yarder against Torino could certainly be put in the ‘bet he couldn’t do that again first time’ category (but he probably could). In the win over Lazio, Leao finished from close range from Fikayo Tomori’s cross.

The opener in Parma came early on and was a precise shot from Alexis Saelemaekers on the edge of the box. Roma was a devastating counter that allowed Strahinja Pavlovic to fire in from deep inside the area.

Then we come to some that perhaps fuel the argument of luck. Samuele Ricci’s volley versus Torino was certainly a sweet strike, but took a deflection so had a stroke of fortune. Leao scored from outside the area against Pisa and Fiorentina, through a crowd.

Back to the perfectly normal goals, the first against Napoli was another brilliant transition where Pulisic laid it on a plate for Saelemaekers early on. Finally, Pavlovic scoring a header from a cross in round one against Cremonese is hardly a freak occurrence.

Conclusion

In short, there is nothing to suggest that Milan are worryingly on the right side of chance when it comes to their shooting. The numbers instead show they are taking high-quality shots at a volume which suggests they should score as many as they have.

What makes the difference, and where scoring from the first shot on target so many times becomes quite obvious, is the style of play. Allegri’s contain-and-counter approach has served the Rossoneri well in terms of results, and it means that counters often yield the first big chance, which has regularly been taken.

This is not too dissimilar to previous teams that we have seen do well in Serie A. Simone Inzaghi’s Inter leveraged a similar strategy of ‘playing the averages’ by trying to restrict chances and relying on quality in the forward department to conquer the decisive moments.

Will Milan keep up this pace and score another 10-15 times from their first shot on target in a game? It seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. Led by the snipers Pulisic and Leao, this is a clinical and ruthless side as much as it is a pragmatic one. It could yet be the perfect recipe.