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The team that is top of the Premier League on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in 17 of the previous 33 seasons – basically a flip of a chocolate coin.
However, Arsenal themselves have a much bleaker record as they've been top at Christmas four times before but have never gone on to lift the trophy.
The Gunners had only been top at this stage twice before Mikel Arteta took charge, but this is the third time in four seasons that they sit top of the tree at Christmas.
Their fans will hope that the wisdom Arteta's men have received in seasons past will see them finally hold off Manchester City and deliver the gift they've been wishing for since 2004.
"You'd like to think that through all the experiences that Arsenal have had being top at Christmas, they can understand the mistakes made in the back half of some seasons that stopped them from winning the title," former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha told Football Focus.
There isn't a lot of room for error though as Arsenal have a slender lead of just two points, while the average lead by the team top on Christmas Day is four points.
In fact, the only table-toppers at Christmas to have a smaller lead than Arsenal in the last 12 seasons were the Gunners themselves two years ago.
But while a two-point lead isn't much, history suggests it might be enough.
Arsenal are the eighth side in Premier League history to have a two-point lead at Christmas and five of the previous seven went on to win the title, including the last four.
Bizarrely Arsenal are the only side to win the Premier League without ever doing it when they were top at Christmas, as all three of their titles came when chasing the leaders at this time of year.
They were sixth and an incredible 13 points behind leaders Man Utd in 1997-98, second and three points behind Newcastle in 2001-02 and third and one point behind Man Utd at Christmas time in 2003-04.
That 13-point deficit in 1997-98 is the most points a team has ever been behind the leaders at Christmas and won the title (Arsenal did have a game in hand), while the lowest the eventual champions have been in the table at this stage is eighth, by Manchester City in the Covid-delayed season of 2020-21.
Weirdly the team in second on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in only two of the past 17 seasons, although both times it was Manchester City who did so.
In fact, in the last five seasons where the leaders at Christmas did not go on to win the title, the Premier League was won each time by Manchester City.
For many Arsenal fans, there will be a sense of deja vu. Leading the Premier League at Christmas before being eaten up by a relentless Pep Guardiola side is something the Gunners have got a little bit used to.
Seeing a seven-point lead over Manchester City cut to two in the space of five games won't exactly fill them with confidence either.
"We're back on top of the table but we're not watching City too much, or the other teams," said Bukayo Saka. "We're in control now. We know if we win every week we'll stay there."
Arteta added: "The only thing we can control is our own performance and results and we know how long it's going to be and how tough is this league. That's it."
Manchester City have obviously got history on their side. Guardiola has won the Premier League title six times, the Bundesliga three times with Bayern Munich and La Liga three times with Barcelona. Arteta has no league titles as a manager.
Guardiola's squad are full of Premier League winners, players who know what it takes to end a campaign strong, while none of the Arsenal squad have won a Premier League – but have experienced losing leads over the past few seasons.
Why can't this season be different though? Manchester City look far from the relentless side they have in previous seasons – and have already lost four games this campaign, compared to Arsenal's two losses.
"We will be there. If they follow me we will be there but we have to improve," said Guardiola.
"I know the level in Europe, in the Premier League, I know Arsenal and the other teams and how tough they are. It is not enough.
"The spirit is there, last season we did not have the spirit or aggression or hunger - all the attributes they need. It is not about the highlights and how good the actions are, there is something that comes from inside where we will recover from the Club World Cup."
City's attack is flowing, having scored 10 more goals than Arsenal, but having also conceded six more – you feel the title race could be defined by whether City's goals can outshine Arsenal's solidity.
Only four times in 33 Premier League seasons has the side bottom on Christmas Day survived, with the most recent being Wolves in 2022-23.
But with just two points won and a record 16 points from safety, it would take not just a Christmas miracle but a New Year's, Valentine's and Easter one too for bottom side Wolves to survive once again.
Second-bottom Burnley have a fighting chance as almost half the teams in their position at Christmas have stayed up, although the only time that's happened in the past eight seasons was when Eddie Howe led Newcastle to 11th in 2021-22.
West Ham fans have the most reason to be optimistic as the team in 18th has survived in two out of three seasons on average, most recently Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Wolves last time out.
The most likely outcome is that one of West Ham, Burnley and Wolves will stay up as that's happened just over half the time, with two teams surviving in 12 of the previous 33 seasons.
The three teams bottom at Christmas have never all survived while only four times in Premier League history have all three been relegated, although two of those occurred recently in 2020-21 and 2023-24.
In terms of who could be relegated in their place, the team flying highest at Christmas that ultimately went down were Norwich in 1994-95, who were seventh with 30 points and 11 points above the drop.
That was in a 42-game season though. In a 38-game campaign, the best team on Christmas Day to be relegated were Blackpool in 2010-11, who were 10th with 22 points but finished 19th with 39 points.
Newcastle in 2008-09 were 12th with 22 points and went down, while the most points a relegated side has been above the bottom three at Christmas is seven by Reading in 2007-08, who were 12th with 21 points.
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