Toronto mayoral hopefuls quietly test the waters ahead of 2026 campaign

The conflict lines successful Toronto's adjacent mayoral predetermination are softly being drawn arsenic imaginable candidates - including Olivia Chow and John Tory - survey the tract to find who is successful and who is out.

Election time doesn't get until Oct. 26, 2026, but run strategists and experts accidental superior candidates are making important decisions now. 

Here's the enactment you astir apt won't spot (though you mightiness get a robocall): Candidates are starting to woo cardinal advisors, question retired prospective donors, and they're polling to spot wherever they basal with voters. 

This has 2 goals, according to erstwhile metropolis councillor Joe Mihevc. One, these candidates are trying to fig retired wherever their vantage is successful adjacent year's race, and two, to perchance unit opponents to wantonness their fledgling runs. 

"I would telephone this season that we are in the primaries," Mihevc told CBC Toronto. "Right now, the cardinal happening is enactment and wealth – who tin physique an organizing squad and bring wealth to the table."

Most large names won't accidental if they're successful oregon retired conscionable yet, but experts suggest determination volition beryllium less high-profile (and good funded) candidates successful the contention than Toronto saw successful the 2023 byelection to regenerate John Tory – a contention that besides featured a whopping 102 candidates successful total.

Here's a look astatine wherever things basal present and what Toronto's adjacent politician has to bash close now. 

WATCH | Olivia Chow was elected mayor in amazingly adjacent vote: 

Candidates looking for $1M and a wide path

Mounting a mayoral run successful Toronto is simply a analyzable task due to the fact that of the effort it takes to scope the city's astir 1.9 cardinal eligible voters, said Andrew Tumilty, a erstwhile warfare country manager for Tory. 

Viable campaigns request heavy pockets and dedicated donors, helium said.

"A credible run for Toronto politician needs to beryllium capable to rise determination successful the neighbourhood of implicit a cardinal dollars to beryllium effective," helium said. 

When it comes to the candidates themselves, Mihevc said astir of the jockeying going connected astatine the infinitesimal is successful the centre and the close of the governmental spectrum. Liberals and conservatives are softly vying to beryllium the main alternatives to left-leaning standard-bearer Chow, helium said. 

Clearing a lane successful bid to unfastened up the widest imaginable excavation of enactment is key, helium added.

"The force (for these candidates) is not Olivia Chow today, the force is idiosyncratic who occupies a akin governmental space," Mihevc said. "As the tract narrows, past you whitethorn person 3 oregon 4 viable candidates who volition marque a coagulated run. Then the hostile volition beryllium Mayor Chow."

Will Chow tally again?

Chow cruised to triumph successful the mayoral byelection successful 2023, grabbing and holding a commanding pb successful the polls aft entering the run successful April. But present the politician has a grounds to defend, said Toronto Metropolitan University authorities prof Myer Siemiatycki. 

On the affirmative broadside of the ledger, she tin constituent to the New Deal with the state that volition prevention the metropolis billions, highlighted by the upload of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway (which is inactive being worked out). 

But back-to-back taxation hikes of 9.5 and 6.9 per cent successful the past 2 budgets could beryllium a challenge, helium said.

"It was a hefty increase," Siemiatycki said of the 2024 fund hike alone. "But the information of the substance is, she campaigned connected that."

While Chow has not declared her candidacy, a root adjacent to the politician expects she volition tally for re-election adjacent year.

Is a Tory comeback successful the cards?

The sanction generating the astir speculation is the antheral whose resignation cleared the mode for Chow's victory: John Tory.

Toronto's erstwhile politician is said to beryllium mulling different bid for the city's apical job, perchance mounting up a governmental rematch with Chow, who helium defeated to triumph his archetypal word successful 2014.

Tory didn't contradict speculation astir his involvement successful a imaginable tally erstwhile helium spoke to Toronto Today. He did not respond to requests for remark from CBC News. 

Tumilty thinks that Tory inactive has enactment among immoderate Toronto voters. The erstwhile politician would person a batch to connection the metropolis if helium decided to tally again, helium said.

"I deliberation helium would constituent to his grounds of nationalist service," said Tumilty, who is the manager of issues absorption and situation communications astatine Enterprise Canada.

"He intelligibly cares precise profoundly astir the City of Toronto, and I deliberation helium would constituent to immoderate of his relationships with different orders of authorities and his quality to enactment unneurotic to code larger problems."

But the way backmost whitethorn not beryllium creaseless sailing for the erstwhile mayor. 

Tory resigned aft admitting to an inappropriate narration with a erstwhile unit member. The city's integrity commissioner recovered that helium violated the city's codification of behaviour by engaging successful the affair, but recommended nary punishment due to the fact that helium had near office.

If Tory stepped backmost into nationalist life, his opponents would usage the ungraded against him, questioning his judgment, Mihevc said. 

Some Torontonians person besides raised the information that the ungraded outgo the metropolis millions ($11.7 cardinal according to this report) due to the fact that it had to tally a byelection.

"That needs to beryllium portion of his calculation. Is helium up for that?" Mihevc said. "Is helium up for the nationalist airing of that ungraded again and again and again?"

Who other is successful the mix?

We called astir to cheque connected different salient names that mightiness beryllium eyeing up a run. Here's what we've recovered out:

Former metropolis councillor Ana Bailao, who finished 2nd successful the past election, did not regularisation retired different tally for politician erstwhile contacted by CBC News.

"Right now, I americium focused connected getting affordable lodging built successful Toronto and crossed the country," said Bailao, who works for developer Dream Unlimited. 

Journalist Anthony Furey amazed galore pundits with his 4th spot decorativeness successful the byelection. He told CBC News helium is considering moving again.

"As a candidate, I would absorption connected getting infrastructure built, increasing the system and cleaning up our streets," helium said successful an email.

Coun. Brad Bradford has been 1 of Chow's astir vocal critics, and placed eighth successful the mayoral byelection. He told CBC News helium is considering different tally for mayor.

"For now, I americium going to proceed to correspond my constituents connected assembly and enactment with radical crossed the metropolis to bash what I tin to marque the city's authorities run amended and minimize the hassle City Hall causes for people," helium said successful a statement.

Former Liberal MP Marco Mendicino, who is presently Prime Minister Mark Carney's main of staff, is said to beryllium mulling a bid for the office, according to reports from the Toronto Star.

Mendicino did not respond to a petition for comment.