What happens next is largely in Iran's control - but there are no good choices

As the prima rises supra Jerusalem this morning, Israelis volition beryllium waking to the quality that America has joined their warfare and attacked Iran. It volition beryllium met with mixed feelings.

For the archetypal nighttime successful implicit a week determination was nary Iranian rocket onslaught connected Israel, but portion the caller time brings a comfortableness successful US subject enactment determination volition besides beryllium heavy trepidation that this warfare has entered a unsafe and perchance uncontrollable phase.

Benjamin Netanyahu released a video connection praising the US president and saying bid comes done strength; Donald Trump addressed the American federation and warned Iran helium would not hesitate to bid further enactment if it retaliates.

What happens adjacent is mostly successful Iran's control. What they take to do, volition find the aboriginal of this region.

The question is present whether they volition respond, but how?

Iran has faced a humiliating pounding from Israeli jets implicit 9 days and present suffered monolithic attacks connected their celebrated atomic facilities by a state they telephone "The Great Satan"; determination volition beryllium a feeling of nationalist humiliation and anger, and the authorities volition request to amusement its radical it remains strong.

Developing a atomic programme has taken galore decades and comes astatine immense cost: billions and billions of dollars and dense planetary sanctions. That each present lies successful tatters. How does the authorities explicate that to its people, galore of whom person suffered astatine the disbursal of these expansive ambitions and are opposed to the draconian enactment they unrecorded under?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is often described arsenic the world's longest-serving dictator. He hasn't survived by being reckless but adjacent though the US strikes weren't aimed astatine authorities change, Khamanei's aboriginal is present much precarious than ever.

The authorities rhetoric and authorities tv channels volition committedness occurrence and victory, but the world isn't simple.

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There volition beryllium voices adjacent to the Supreme Leader, particularly successful the Revolutionary Guard, encouraging a beardown response. The moderates volition apt impulse caution, wary of dragging the US into a wider, much sustained struggle that Iran couldn't win.

It's unclear however overmuch much Iran tin propulsion astatine Israel. Ballistic missiles person been fired astatine the state each time since the warfare began, but successful decreasing numbers arsenic Israel has systematically targeted motorboat sites and stockpiles.

Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are severely degraded and the Assad authorities successful Syria is nary more. This was each expected to beryllium the archetypal enactment of defence, a deterrence against an Israel attack. That shield has collapsed.

The Houthis stay defiant but their firepower is limited.

The US attacks were against Iran's atomic sites, not elder Iranian officials. Strikes connected US bases successful the portion would truthful beryllium the astir logical 'like-for-like' response.

If they take to widen the conflict, Iran could present people lipid facilities successful the Gulf oregon effort to adjacent disconnected the globally important Strait of Hormuz. Either of those options would person planetary consequences.

Shia militia successful Iraq could beryllium hard to power if they determine to enactment unilaterally. Iraqi information forces person reportedly surrounded the US Embassy successful Baghdad successful anticipation of violence.

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There is simply a anticipation Iran could bash thing smaller and symbolic arsenic a mode of redeeming face, having the last connection and giving the portion an off-ramp. That volition beryllium the anticipation successful Washington.

But adjacent successful that best-case scenario, it volition surely person to beryllium thing much than a token response; Iran is reeling, severely weakened internally and externally. If they escalate, they hazard a terrible US effect that could beryllium a decease blow.

If they capitulate, the authorities faces large home dissent and reputational harm from which it mightiness ne'er recover.

For the Supreme Leader this morning, determination are nary bully choices.