What North London Derby win did to Arsenal title odds as Manchester City slip

football.london takes a look at the latest Opta predictions following a weekend of wins for Arsenal and Manchester City

Arsenal had to respond to their collapse against Wolves when they made the short hop across north London to Tottenham Hotspur, and they did just that. Four goals, a dominant performance and were it not for a gift of a goal, they likely would have been out of sight much sooner.

The mood after Wednesday’s draw was the lowest it has been all campaign, without doubt. Belief was faltering, and Mikel Arteta said that if they could have played on Friday, they would have just so they could respond sooner.

The wait was worth it, however, and in their most important win of the season so far, they got their title challenge back on track. Significantly, they did it after Manchester City, who had narrowly beaten a Newcastle United side that felt hard done by on two counts.

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The first was when Bernardo Silva avoided a second yellow card after a barge on Dan Burn off the ball. The second: Burn being pushed into an offside position before scoring the second equaliser, which would be ruled out by the assistant referee and not corrected, despite suggestions put to Eddie Howe after the game that the law in this instance could have led to a different outcome.

Regardless of the win, the odds have again swung back in favour of Arsenal to a greater extent. Following the draw with Wolves and City’s win over Fulham, Opta gave Arsenal an 80.92% chance of winning the league, and Manchester City were valued at 15.91%.

Fast forward to the aftermath of Arsenal’s derby victory, and that has changed. City have now dropped to 15.62% despite beating Newcastle, whereas Arsenal gained a greater bump, now sitting at 83.67% likely to win the league.

The upcoming fixtures this weekend are likely to have a further significant impact on the data. Arsenal host Chelsea, while City go to relegation-threatened Leeds United, with all sides desperate for points and the stakes extremely high.

The Gunners managed to put four past Leeds in their own backyard a few weeks ago, while Man City know The Whites have already scored three at home to both Chelsea and Liverpool this season. The Blues travel to the Emirates Stadium needing the points in the race for a top-five finish, with Liverpool and Manchester United gaining two points on them after their home draw with Burnley cost them big time.

The run-in is here and it is set to be a monster end to the season. Arsenal will be praying, certainly their fans are, that they come out on top!

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