What Tottenham’s final 7 games from the last five seasons tell us about relegation race

Tottenham’s fight for survival is now entering its decisive phase, and history suggests the final stretch of the season has not always been kind to Spurs.

It certainly is all to play for in the Premier League this season for Tottenham Hotspur, who are embroiled in a full-on relegation scrap.

Spurs find themselves in 17th place after their loss to Nottingham Forest saw the Tricky Trees leapfrog them into 16th.

Tottenham fans will now be hoping that, come the end of the season, their club retains their Premier League status, one they have held for almost half a century.

Numbers crunched by a supercomputer suggest that Tottenham will just about stay up and beat the drop. But what does history say about Spurs when it comes to the Premier League run-in? We have gone down memory lane to find out.

Tottenham’s Premier League run-in record and form in the last five seasons

Tottenham’s run-in form has declined sharply over the past five seasons, moving from top-four calibre consistency between 2020 and 2022 to a complete collapse in 2024/25.

The defining factor is defensive deterioration rather than attacking output. Since 2022, Spurs have failed to build momentum and have conceded heavily in key matches.

The 2024/25 campaign stands out as a statistical outlier, with the lowest points return, the highest goals conceded, and no wins across the final stretch of the season.

Here is how Tottenham has performed in the Premier League run-in from 2020-2025:

Tottenham run-in performance (matchdays 32–38)

Key trends

• Sharp decline in recent seasons
• Points per game has collapsed from 2.00 in 2021/22 to 0.14 in 2024/25.
• Win rate has dropped from 57% to 0% over that period.
• The 2024/25 run-in is clearly the worst by a significant margin.

• Defensive regression is the biggest issue
• Goals conceded have risen sharply from 3 in seven games in 2021/22 to 20 in 2024/25.
• That equates to an increase from 0.43 per game to 2.86 per game.

• Attack has remained relatively stable
• Goals scored have ranged between 6 and 15 across the five seasons.
• Even in weaker campaigns, Spurs have still found the net consistently, suggesting the main drop-off is defensive rather than attacking.

Season-by-season breakdown

• 2024/25 – collapse
• Record: 0W, 1D, 6L
• Points: 1 from 21
• Form: L L D L L L L
• Lost four consecutive matches and conceded multiple goals in five of seven games.
• Heavy defeats included 1-5 against Liverpool and 1-4 against Brighton.

• 2023/24 – late recovery masks poor run
• Record: 3W, 0D, 4L
• Started with four straight defeats but ended with two wins in the final three matches.
• Conceded 15 goals across the run.

• 2022/23 – inconsistency
• Record: 2W, 1D, 4L
• Form fluctuated with no sustained momentum.
• Heavy defeats included 1-6 against Newcastle and 3-4 against Liverpool.

• 2021/22 – elite run-in
• Record: 4W, 2D, 1L
• Points: 14 from 21
• Conceded just three goals in total.
• Key results included a 3-0 win over Arsenal and a 5-0 victory against Norwich.

• 2020/21 – strong but slightly inconsistent
• Record: 4W, 1D, 2L
• Scored 15 goals, the highest in this period.
• Wins included 4-0 against Sheffield United and 4-2 against Leicester.

Comparative insights

• Points drop-off From 14 points in 2021/22 to just 1 in 2024/25 – a drop of 13 points.
• Goal difference swing
  From +11 in 2021/22 to -14 in 2024/25 – a net swing of -25.
• Win consistency
  Tottenham recorded four wins in both 2020/21 and 2021/22.
  That dropped to two to three wins in the following seasons before falling to zero in 2024/25.

Spurs cannot afford a poor 25/26 run-in amid relegation fears

Of course, if Tottenham are to retain their Premier League status, they must have a very strong 25/26 run-in.

Cristian Romero believes that the next seven games for Spurs this season are finals, and who can argue with him, given how tight it is at the bottom of the Premier League table.

In fact, when you compare Spurs’ fixtures with those of their relegation rivals, you might naturally begin to fear the worst.

Their record in the run-in over the last five seasons does leave a sour taste, but Tottenham must turn it around this term.

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