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City have a game in hand over Arsenal and also host the Gunners at the Etihad on 19 April, but the title is now firmly out of their hands.
If Arsenal win all of their remaining fixtures, including beating City, they can be crowned champions with two games to spare with a draw at West Ham on 9 May.
But if City drop points before Arsenal's trip to London Stadium, and Arsenal maintain their winning run, the title will be decided even earlier.
However, if City win all their remaining league fixtures - including beating Arsenal - and the Gunners win all their other league matches, the title race will go to the final day of the season.
But Arsenal also have a vastly superior goal difference to City, currently seven ahead of their challengers.
Opta's calculations put Arsenal's chance of winning the title at 97.42%.
This article is the latest from BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team.
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