Why Arsenal and Man City are bringing back long-ball football

For a long time, hoofing the ball upfield was something associated with teams lower down the leagues.

But recent incomings in the form of Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres for Arsenal, as well as the Manchester City duo of Gianluigi Donnarumma and Erling Haaland, suggest a more direct approach from both teams.

Along with launching goal-kicks, there has been a deliberate effort from both teams to get up the field quickly - through ground passing or dribbling.

In this piece, we analyse City and Arsenal's new direct style, looking at how they use long goal-kicks and quick passing.

Pep Guardiola's style, although ever-changing, seems to influence how many teams play.

The Spaniard has adapted to the leagues he has managed in, but his career began with a focus on short passing and heavy goalkeeper involvement.

This was to reduce the chances of his team losing the ball and to reduce the spaces his players would have to cover to regain the ball if it was lost.

This makes sense and most teams at the highest level aimed to replicate it.

As a result, the percentage of keepers playing long passes has gradually been on the decline since the 2018-19 campaign - until this season.

Because of high pressing, and the co-ordinated way teams press has become both more common and more effective.

The increased focus on planning a team's press - alongside signing more physical players to carry this out - has resulted in a league that looks very different today than it did a decade ago.

These factors have been prioritised because an effective high press forces the opposition to kick the ball long, often going against their plan, increasing the likelihood the ball is given to the other team.

It also increases the likelihood of opponents making an error leading to goalscoring opportunities close to goal.

Short passes in build-up resulted in keeping the ball more often compared to kicking it long. But we've got to a point now in which teams are full of impressive athletes, well-drilled in their press, meaning the risk of building out from the back has begun to outweigh the reward.

As per Opta, the seven teams who played the highest percentage of short passes last season all made more than 30 errors leading to an opposition shot.

By comparison, of the eight teams that played the highest percentage of long passes, only Ipswich made more than 30 errors leading to shots.

Arsenal's use of David Raya has been interesting. For a team that dominates the ball so much, it is surprising 42.1% of Raya's passes last season were long.

Arteta's detailed approach is seen in how Raya launches his long passes.

From goal-kicks, Raya is often seen targeting the right flank. Last season, it was often Kai Havertz who moved from his centre-forward position to meet the ball here.

By kicking it long, Arteta minimises the risk in building up from the back against good opposition pressing. It also allows Arsenal to utilise the strengths of their individuals, with Raya boasting excellent kicking abilities targeting a tall and impressive hold-up player in Havertz.

Targeting the wide areas for goal-kicks also reduces the risk of being exposed down the middle if the initial duel is lost.

With the ball towards the touchline, if it does go out of play it is likely to be for a throw-in.

Arsenal, as a strong pressing side, still find themselves in a good position here, pressing their opponents at throw-ins, with territory gained high up the pitch.

Manchester City have increasingly utilised long passes from goal-kicks too.

Unlike the Arsenal example above, their long goal-kicks have typically been played with attacking intent rather than to gain territory.

Take the following example from the recent Spurs game.

Spurs pushed high, marking individual players closely as City aimed to build up. From one goal-kick City brought some of their players towards the ball, enticing Spurs to follow them closer to their goal.

They also pushed Haaland high up the pitch, increasing the distance between him and the rest of the team. The player standing in the big space in between Haaland and the rest of the team was Omar Marmoush.

The idea here was to isolate Haaland and his marker. By going long, City didn't have to worry about trying to build through congestion, especially without Ederson in goal.

They were able to reduce the risk of conceding, nullify Spurs' strengths, and increase the likelihood of keeping the ball by having Haaland battle for it in an isolated duel.

City also increased their chances of picking up the second ball and scoring as Marmoush's positioning allowed him to be proactive in running forward to pick up knockdowns from Haaland, or any ball that landed short.

This was a well-worked move and ended with a Marmoush shot that went just wide of the post.

Over the past few seasons, City and Arsenal have played in similar ways - aiming to dominate the ball for large parts of the game, pin teams in and win the ball back quickly through pressing.

The quality of both teams help them win most games when dominating the ball, but adding the ability to speed play up and attack quickly when defences are disorganised provides them with a layer of unpredictability.

Following the win against Wolves this season, Guardiola's quotes were telling in his evolving style of play: "[Fast breaks are] a weapon that we want to use this season - when we're getting the ball, attack quicker than maybe before.

"I want to attack quickly when the opponent is high-pressing and we beat the first press, but after that I love to pass the ball a thousand, million, boring times. I love it!"

And this was seen in Tijjani Reijnders' goal. As City won the ball back around the halfway line, it took only six seconds before the Netherlands midfielder put the ball in the back of the net.

When the opportunity presents itself, Arsenal too are empowered to play more direct this season.

The likes of Madueke and Gyokeres thrive covering big distances and the pass selection of players like Martin Zubimendi and Martin Odegaard suggest that Arteta is leaning into platforming those qualities.

Playing more direct can lead to the ball being lost more often but, in making the game slightly chaotic, Arsenal still retain an advantage.

Arsenal's defenders are excellent one against one and when teams come out to attack them, spaces open up for Arsenal's midfielders and attackers that wouldn't otherwise present themselves against deep defences.

In both the Nottingham Forest and Manchester United games there was a clear increase in how quickly Arsenal progressed the ball up the pitch when compared to the games they played against the same opposition last season.

On the opening weekend Arsenal were the second most direct team, behind only Crystal Palace.

The Liverpool game doesn't fit this trend but analysing the game provides context for the data.

Arsenal set up in a defensive manner against them. They aimed to slow the game down in the cauldron of Anfield and Liverpool's organised shape didn't give Arsenal the ideal circumstances to counter-attack.

Arsenal likely didn't want to make the game end-to-end, given Liverpool's impressive counter-attacking quality too.

What this shows is although there has been an intentional increase in how fast Arsenal play at times, it's a tool being used in specific games rather than all the time.

Arteta appears to be looking to have a squad capable of winning games in a variety of ways, depending on the opposition.

Both Arsenal and City have been sides that have dominated the ball, playing in an intricate fashion. With the strength of opposition increasing each season, the best managers are the ones that are at the forefront of tactical trends.

It isn't enough to rest on a system that has worked for numerous seasons. New tactical advantages have to be found, often in response to common tactical setups.

With the increasing influence of both pressing and low blocks in Premier League football, a more direct approach to take advantage of the transitional parts of the game may help City and Arsenal convert draws into wins this season.

Prioritising a safer approach closer to their own goal, in the form of a strong shot-stopper (such as Donnarumma), alongside this less risky build-up may also indicate the changing opinion around how top coaches view risk in football.