A rollercoaster race to the Premier League - who will hold their nerve?

ByAdam Lanigan

BBC Sport England

As Coventry City prepare to uncork the champagne and celebrate promotion back to the Premier League after 25 long years away, the race to join them is suddenly as clear as mud.

Coventry just need a point at Blackburn on Friday evening to secure automatic promotion to the top-flight.

But the battle behind them for an automatic slot is promising to go down to the wire.

With a two-point advantage and two games in hand, Ipswich Town seemingly held all the aces. But the 2-0 loss at Portsmouth on Tuesday was a perfect reminder that nothing ever runs without a glitch in the Championship.

Millwall, in third, have pricked up their ears again, while Southampton are coming up on the rails on the back of a six-game winning run that has catapulted them into fourth.

Even Middlesbrough, whose form has deserted them at the wrong time with three draws and three losses as they sit in fifth - their lowest position of the season - could still be celebrating automatic promotion on 2 May.

And with Ipswich facing Boro and Saints in two of their final four games, trying to second guess who comes second has become almost impossible.

Ipswich Town - second on 75pts

Ipswich were pre-season favourites for promotion back in August, so sitting second with five games to play should be regarded as expected.

Despite that position, there has been something a little underwhelming about how the Tractor Boys have gone about this campaign and certainly nowhere near the excitement of their promotion charge under Kieran McKenna two years ago.

They have a stacked squad which was strengthened further in January with the addition of Anis Mehmeti and Dan Neil, but still there is a nagging feeling of wanting more.

Their best run was four successive wins in the New Year period, but a stumble or disappointing result has never been too far around the corner.

"The result at Portsmouth summed up the season," said Jobi McAnuff on the 72+ EFL podcast.

"When you look at the players at their disposal it's ridiculous, but I'm not seeing what I should be given the quality within the squad."

Ipswich need 10 points from their five remaining games to be certain of automatic promotion and despite the lacklustre showing against Portsmouth, former captain Mick Mills, believes that is definitely still doable.

"When you look at the fixtures, we can pick up three wins. Ideally one of them would be Middlesbrough (on Sunday) because that would completely nail Middlesbrough, their chance to finish second would be pretty much gone," Mills told BBC Radio Suffolk.

"The only concern we have is this group of players, they can be so up and down. Why are they like it? Leif Davis coming back at the weekend is going to help, he's a natural left-back and we do miss the running ability he's got and the ability he's got on the ball.

"We've got the players to do it, it's just making sure we pick the right ones and those players respond in the right way and perform on the day."

Millwall - third on 73pts

Simply being in the conversation in mid-April for automatic promotion shows how well Millwall have performed this season.

Few outside The Den might have expected this, but write off manager Alex Neil and his experienced campaigners at your peril.

An impressive draw at Ipswich and then a comeback win at Middlesbrough even had the Lions in second after the Good Friday fixtures, but one point from the last two games has dropped them down to third.

However, as midfielder Massimo Luongo points out, a strong dressing room is one of the keys to their success.

"Everyone underestimates what goes on in the Millwall changing room," the Australia international told the 72+.

"The loss to Norwich - you saw at the end of the game, a few boys were down holding their heads, which I don't personally like, and then the reaction of the draw with West Brom.

"We are so laid-back, we don't care. We won't go too high, we won't go too low."

Millwall face Queens Park Rangers in a London derby before away games against Stoke City and relegation-battlers Leicester City and finally Oxford United (home).

The Lions will secure a play-off place with four points but Neil says he and his players are looking beyond that while they remain in the hunt.

"At the start of the season, if I said to anyone that we would get into the play-offs, everybody would be absolutely buzzing because that's been an aim and a catalyst that we've wanted to try and achieve for the club for such a long period of time," Neil told BBC Radio London.

"Does it mean that we're satisfied with that? Absolutely not. And I think this is where we need to get a bit of perspective on things.

"Do we want to try to go up automatically? Of course we do. Who wouldn't? But would we be disappointed with the play-offs? Absolutely 100% not."

Southampton - fourth on 72pts

When Southampton lost 2-1 at home to Hull on 17 January, they were marooned in 15th, winless in seven and four points behind Leicester City.

Relegation was only six points beneath them and the play-offs a distant 10 points off, as questions were raised about whether Tonda Eckert was really the man to take the team forward.

Three months on, Saints have not lost since and their run of 12 wins and three draws has propelled them up the table, while there is an FA Cup semi-final with Manchester City at Wembley on the calendar on Saturday, 25 April.

No question, they are the in-form team and with a match to come against Ipswich at home, people are no longer wondering if they will make the play-offs but instead if they could carry all this form into that second promotion spot.

"If Southampton are to go and get second, this would be one of the greatest stories ever in the EFL," said McAnuff.

"They were down and out. Watching them as a group, they were gone.

"Now they're still an outsider to get in the top two because of where they've come from, so they can attack every single game with freedom. That makes them dangerous."

Having risen up the league and knocked Premier League pair Fulham and Arsenal out of the cup, confidence is flowing at St Mary's.

Head coach Eckert has been able to tinker with his side in recent games, but his foot remains firmly on the accelerator.

"It sounds boring because I keep repeating myself but we need to keep our heads down and keep working. It's the only way," said the German.

"This squad is in a moment and a place where you can put on whoever you want to put on and they're ready and well able to perform. That's a big plus for us at this part of the season.

"That's all it comes down to at this stage of the season. When you step on the grass you need to be ready to perform."

Middlesbrough - fifth on 72pts

When Middlesbrough won at Sheffield United on 9 February, they leapfrogged Coventry to go top of the table.

It was a sixth straight win for Kim Hellberg's side who were playing with freedom and confidence. The question then was who could stop them.

Now the question is where their next win is coming from after a collapse in form that has seen them victorious in only two of their last 11 games and none of the last six.

But still, with a trip to Portman Road this Sunday, three points against one of their direct rivals could reignite a faltering promotion challenge.

"Middlesbrough have hit an absolute brick wall," said McAnuff. "It's not because they've not got good footballers or dominate games, but they're not able to get over the line."

But despite their worrying dip, one win could change momentum and Hellberg has not lost belief in his squad.

"We're good enough to win every game," he told BBC Radio Tees. "That's the way we play and that's been clear.

"For us, I'm looking at that as a good possibility to do. We know that this squad and the way we've worked, we're good enough to win against any team."

Predicting events in the Championship is often a mug's game, as the league throws up topsy-turvy results on an almost weekly basis.

But it is worth checking what Opta thinks to understand the probabilities for each team.

They have Ipswich taking second spot with a predicted 83 points and a 71.92% likelihood of that happening. Millwall would finish third with 80pts (11.4%), followed by Southampton (79pts, 10.04%) and finally Middlesbrough (78pts, 6.5%).

That is a huge fall for Boro, who have only been outside the top two for six of the 42 matchdays this season.

The computer also has Hull City completing the play-off line-up, maintaining the sixth position they currently hold.

But given what has happened across the previous eight months in this wildly unpredictable Championship campaign, it would be out of keeping for there to be no surprises over the next two weeks.