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Liverpool has been placed among the favorites to win this season’s Champions League — although a supercomputer is still giving Real Madrid better odds following the Spanish giants’ defeat at Anfield.
Arne Slot’s side strengthened its hopes of finishing in the top eight of the league phase with a deserved 1-0 victory over Los Blancos on Tuesday, coming courtesy of Alexis Mac Allister’s second-half header.
A top-eight finish would send Liverpool straight through to the last-16 of the competition and, theoretically, give it an advantage over the sides that would face a play-off first. Slot and his players will know that isn’t necessarily the case though after last season.
The Reds sit on nine points after four games, which leaves them in a good position with four league phase games still to go. 16 points was the total needed to secure a place in the top eight last season, and with games against PSV Eindhoven, Inter Milan, Marseille and Qarabag to go, they will feel confident about reaching that tally.
And, according to AceOdds’ supercomputer BETSiE, Liverpool has a good chance of adding a seventh European crown to its collection, having been ranked as the fourth favorite to win this season’s competition.
The supercomputer takes into account all match results from last season (across all competitions), pre-season results and the current season as it progresses, projecting the the season based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the season.
Based on the simulations, Liverpool is given a probability of 11.8 per cent of winning this season’s Champions League. The Reds are also given an 83.1 per cent probability of finishing inside the top eight of the league phase, with only three other teams given a higher figure.
Despite losing to Liverpool this week, Real is actually ranked as the second favorite for this season’s competition, with Xabi Alonso’s side given a 17.4 per cent probability of adding a 16th European crown.
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Arsenal is considered to be the favorite to win its first Champions League title, with the current Premier League leader given a 19 per cent probability of going all the way. Mikel Arteta’s side has a perfect winning record so far in the league phase, and is considered almost certain to finish in the top eight at 98.2 per cent.
The only other side ranked above Liverpool is defending champion Paris Saint-Germain (15.1%). Bayern Munich, who beat Luis Enrique’s side on Tuesday - thanks in part to Luis Diaz - and has won all four of its league phase games so far, is actually only ranked as the sixth favorite for the competition at 9.8 per cent, with Barcelona (10%) ahead of it.
Manchester City (9.3%) follows closely behind, with fellow Premier League sides Chelsea (1.6%), Newcastle (1.2%) and Tottenham (0.9%) given much smaller odds.
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