1 week ago
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It is no secret that AC Milan have a bit of a defensive problem this year, even if they are one of the best teams in the league.
In Serie A this season, Milan have now conceded 17 goals, which is pretty respectable for 22 matchdays into the season. However, they are no longer on par with Roma.
Instead, they are two goals ahead of the leaders (who have scored 15 more), and they have conceded one more than Como (who have scored more goals also). Of course, it is not a major issue just yet. Nevertheless, there are cracks at the back.
Issues with penalties
Calciomercato.com writes that the Roma penalty was the seventh that the Rossoneri have given away this season, more than anyone else in Serie A. Mike Maignan has saved two, so the cost of this is not as great as it could’ve been.
However, this is an alarming number of spot kicks conceded, and there are tactical faults for this.
Massimiliano Allegri’s team sits in quite a low block, and whilst the defensive numbers have improved, they are far from perfect. His team are regularly making errors at the back, and this is proving to be costly.
They must ‘make the leap in quality’ at the back and become impenetrable, and this is what Allegri himself seeks if a Scudetto is to be achieved with this group.
Penalty for Roma !!! #RomaMilan [0-1] pic.twitter.com/fp5PpBcmtz
— ReteZone (@ReteZone) January 25, 2026
Maths Class
A penalty is deemed to be worth around 0.76 xG, but some believe it can go as high as 0.79. Now, if the Diavolo have conceded seven penalties this year, this is equal to around 5.32 xG, or five goals.
Whilst xG is not an exact science, players can miss 0.99 xG chances, it offers a pretty good idea of the defensive quality available.
In October, Allegri discussed what is needed for the Scudetto, and stated that ‘around 25-30 goals’ would bring a top two place. So far, a fifth, so to speak, of this amount has been conceded in penalties from the xG calculations. However, the actual amount is slightly less (4).
Needs must
Of course, it gives leeway, but their current rate is just unsustainable. The best defensive record in a 38-game Serie A season was 15 goals, held by Allegri’s Juventus. So, considering this, the Diavolo would have to be nearly perfect in a season to get away with the amount of goals they risk via penalties.
It is unsustainable, and it needs to be fixed. Failing to do so will only limit Milan in the long run.
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