Erling Haaland will never have a better chance to win the Ballon d'Or - but there's a catch

Erling Haaland is in incredible form for Manchester City and Norway and is eyeing up a record-breaking season in front of goal.

But for a World Cup win for the ages, Erling Haaland might have already won the Ballon d'Or. He finished sec.ond in 2023 when his record-breaking first season at Manchester City helped propel the Blues to a treble.

His problem was that Lionel Messi rattled in seven goals in Qatar as he finally won a World Cup with Argentina. It made another Ballon d'Or a formality.

Whatever happens in the United States, Mexico and Canada next summer, the Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo duopoly for the Ballon d'Or is surely over. Even if Argentina or Portugal win the World Cup, it can't compensate for club careers being played out in Miami and Riyadh.

So while events next summer will clearly have a major impact on the individual award that footballers value above all others, so will achievements at club level.

Haaland is in the mix in the early running, alongside Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane. The latter three all have a realistic chance of winning the World Cup with Spain, France and England, while Haaland's achievement is just getting there with Norway.

He has done more than anyone to drive a country to that honour. Sixteen goals in eight games in qualifying is a staggering return and even if Norway only reach the last-16 or quarter-finals, it is possible Haaland could score enough goals to win the Golden Boot.

It's also about team success, as Kane touched on over the weekend. The 32-year-old is posting similar numbers to Haaland this term, but knows goals alone won't get the top awards this year.

"I could score 100 goals this season, but if I don’t win the Champions League or the World Cup, you’re probably not going to win the Ballon d’Or," Kane said, speaking ahead of England’s final World Cup qualifier against Albania.

"It’s the same with Haaland, it’s the same with any player. You have to be winning those major trophies."

Scoring goals is clearly a big advantage, however, especially when you are netting at the rate that Haaland, Kane and Mbappe are. Haaland now has 32 goals in 20 games for club and country this season, after scoring twice in Norway's 4-1 win in Italy on Sunday.

That was a theme that Bernardo Silva touched on when Messi beat Haaland to the Ballon d'Or in 2023.

“Without a doubt, today, when looking at individual trophies, people look a lot at statistics. Normally, the players who score the most goals," Silva said.

“City wins the Champions League, and by chance it wasn’t Haaland because Messi won the World Cup, however, if it wasn’t Messi because of the World Cup, it would be Haaland who would win the Ballon d’Or.

“Normally, scorers end up winning individual awards. If I agree, honestly? No. They can even win, because sometimes they can even be the most influential. Now, by criteria, I don’t agree with this idea that only those who score goals should win the Ballon d’Or, but that’s how football works.”

Haaland has scored in 18 of the 20 matches he has played this season and is on course to shatter any number of records. It's perfectly plausible that his goals could drive City to the Premier League and Champions League.

If he can land a major trophy, as well as leave his mark on the World Cup, then the Ballon d'Or has to be a realistic target. Haaland's second in 2023 was followed by a victory for Rodri in 2024, and further City success looks possible, especially if their striker continues in this vein for the rest of the campaign.

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