GdS: Four games as clear favourites – what Milan must fix to seize schedule opportunity

AC Milan face a run of games where they are the clear favourites in each, and they will provide important signs about the mentality of the squad.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, Milan have to be looking three points against Verona, three against Cagliari, then three against Genoa and Fiorentina in January. They will face the 18th, 15th, 16th, and 20th-placed teams in the league: four of the bottom six.

In a regular world, this would be a chance to take the top spot and perhaps extend their lead, because Inter will face Atalanta, Bologna, Parma and Napoli in the same period, while Napoli will face Cremonese, Lazio, Verona, and (obviously) Inter.

The results paradox

Milan, however, have been strong against their direct rivals, but weak against the so-called lesser sides. They lost to Cremonese, drew with Pisa, Parma and Sassuolo. They won against Bologna, Napoli, Roma and Inter.

Against the top teams, they earned 2.6 points per game. Against the small teams, they have only managed 2. There is a huge variance in ball possession: against the big teams, they are at 39.6%, against the small teams, 59%.

What does this mean? That Milan, when facing a team of their calibre, gives up the ball, sit deeper in front of Maignan, and manage to maintain a high level of focus. They don’t concede. Against bottom-of-the-table teams, they are almost forced to control the ball and end up making individual errors.

Milan, however, have better performances against smaller teams. They score more, shoot more, face fewer shots, have more expected goals and fewer expected goals conceded. It’s logical, but the difference is on the defensive end.

The errors from Tomori against Cremonese, De Winter against Pisa and Gabbia against Sassuolo speak volumes. Allegri will have to work on this in the coming weeks: keeping the levels high even against Verona or Genoa, because the league is clearly open to a breakaway.

With so many fixtures in December and January, and the big teams incapable of finding consistency, those who have a run of form will create separation. What will Allegri need? Solutions against those who defend deep, given that between now and January 11th, Milan will face defensively-intensive opponents.

The Rossoneri will need individual creativity (Leao, Pulisic, Modric), presence in the box (the new arrival Füllkrug plus Loftus-Cheek), and goals from set pieces (Rabiot, Gabbia, Pavlovic). Games against smaller teams, in Italy, are won primarily this way.